Introduction: The Information Office of the State Council issued a white paper on Population Development in Xinjiang on September 26. While introducing the history and current situation of Xinjiang's population development, the white paper also responds to several questions that overseas anti-China forces are keen to hype. In fabricating and concocting Lies related to Xinjiang, the so-called German "scholar" Adrian Zenz has always acted as a "pawn on the horse." He re-published a paper in August arguing that Xinjiang's ethnic minority population would shrink by millions over the next two decades, in order to argue for the so-called "genocide." What mistakes did Zheng Guoen's Xinjiang-related papers make? Around this issue, the Observer Network interviewed Li Jianxin, an expert in Xinjiang demography and a professor in the Department of Sociology at Peking University.
【Interview/Observer Network Li Leng】
Observer Network: Recently, the Information Office of the State Council published a white paper entitled "Population Development in Xinjiang".
Li Jianxin: In the past two years, Western anti-China forces have frequently concocted and rumored the so-called "Xinjiang issue," and the so-called "genocide" of the Uyghur population in Xinjiang is the worst example. The release of the white paper "Population Development in Xinjiang" is opportune and comprehensively and effectively counters the relevant fallacies of Western anti-China forces.
Observer Network: We noticed that just in August this year, Zheng Guoen once again published an article to argue his views on the existence of "genocide" against the Uyghur population in Xinjiang.
Li Jianxin: I also noticed that Zheng Guoen published an article in CENTRAL ASIAN SURVEY, which is a very influential academic journal. At first glance, his thesis is quite standardized, with strong logical reasoning and sufficient argumentation, but on closer inspection, it cannot withstand scrutiny and is completely fallacious.
First of all, similar to his June 2020 report, it is based on "preconceived" and "presumption of guilt" as the intention and starting point. Zheng Guoen's paper begins by giving the United Nations concept and definition of "genocide".
Secondly, starting from this conceptual definition, Zheng Guoen collected and cited relevant data and literature "extensively", and many of these documents are the research results of domestic scholars, trying to support him to reach convincing "preset conclusions" based on the "evidence" of these domestic scholars' research. But when we examine it closely, he is highly selective in using these "evidences."
In the end, it was the misuse and misinterpretation of these "evidences" and materials that led to the conclusion of the "genocide" he wanted.
In short, Zheng Guoen used selective evidence, misinterpretation and argumentation and came to preconceived conclusions under the assumption of "presumption of guilt", so his report is completely untenable and absurd.
Zheng Guoen (Infographic/CGTN)
Observer Network: Can you talk specifically about how his argument is "preconceived"? Where is the selectivity and one-sidedness of "evidence" such as data materials reflected?
Li Jianxin: When talking about population changes, we should start from the law of population's own development, rather than "presumption of guilt" first.
The law of general population change is that the population of any country or region will experience population development and population transformation along with industrialization and modernization - population transformation refers to the process of high birth, high death, low growth to high birth, low death, high growth, and finally to low birth, low death, and low growth. Xinjiang is China's Xinjiang, and Xinjiang's population development is part of the development of Chinese population. Since the founding of New China, China's population development and demographic transformation have been accompanied by industrialization and modernization, and Xinjiang has also experienced the same process.
Behind the demographic transformation are factors such as industrialization and modernization, which mainly refer to multiple factors such as social and economic development, the implementation of systems and regulations, and the transformation of cultural concepts. The Uyghur people in Xinjiang are a member of the big family of the Chinese nation, and the shift of the Uyghur population to low births, low deaths, and low growth is the result of Xinjiang's comprehensive socio-economic and cultural development, which is fully in line with the law of population transformation.
Therefore, to explain the demographic changes in Xinjiang, we must first start from the comprehensive development of Xinjiang's social economy and culture.
Since the founding of New China, the Chinese Government has attached great importance to xinjiang's development and construction, proceeding from the national development strategy and the fundamental interests of the people of all ethnic groups, and has always regarded helping the development of border areas, realizing the equality of all ethnic groups, the common development of all ethnic groups, and common prosperity as the most basic development policy.
In particular, in March 2010, the first national counterpart assistance work conference was held, and the central government decided to provide full coverage to 82 counties (cities) in 12 prefectures (prefectures) and 12 divisions of the corps in Xinjiang in a full-coverage manner, and issued a series of special policies to support and support Xinjiang's development.
Since 2016, 19 provinces and cities have invested 75.965 billion yuan in aid to Xinjiang and 8,519 projects to aid Xinjiang, including 50.962 billion yuan in poverty alleviation in Xinjiang and 4,645 poverty alleviation projects in Xinjiang, including cadres and talents to aid Xinjiang, industrial aid to Xinjiang, cultural and educational aid to Xinjiang, and guarantee and improvement of people's livelihood, which has promoted the comprehensive development of public administration, culture and education, and social economy in Xinjiang.
Zhejiang Aid Xinjiang Medical Talents Assist Local Surgery (Data Map/China News Network)
In particular, Kashgar, Hotan, and Kyzyl-Su Kirgiz Autonomous Prefectures in the three prefectures of southern Xinjiang are the key areas for the country's counterparts to aid Xinjiang. Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong and Shenzhen counterparts support Kashgar region, Beijing, Tianjin and Anhui counterpart support Hotan region, and Jiangsu and Jiangxi counterpart support Kezhou.
Taking Kashgar as an example, since 2019, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong and Shenzhen provinces and cities have invested a total of 19.872 billion yuan in Aid to Xinjiang for Kashgar, implemented 827 Xinjiang aid projects, 7 central enterprises have invested 590 million yuan in 8 designated counties, implemented 115 assistance projects, and selected cadres to work in recipient areas.
For example, Guangdong has improved people's livelihood and improved the level of local public management by dispatching front-line business backbones of health, education and publicity systems, aiding the construction of hospitals, affordable housing, urban infrastructure, etc.; for example, in 2019, Shanghai organized Qunwen volunteers to hold a number of special performances in Kashgar, and in the same year, the Xinquan Campus of Kashgar University aided by Shenzhen was put into use to jointly promote the development of local culture and education; for example, in 2020, Shandong "Dacang moved east" The project promotes more than 26,000 tons of agricultural and sideline products in Kashgar to enter the Shandong market, with sales of 860 million yuan, helping more than 10,000 poor households to increase their income and get rid of poverty, and promoting local social and economic development through industrial assistance to Xinjiang.
Looking at the world today, only China under the leadership of the Communist Party of China can use the strength of the whole country to support and develop the border ethnic minority areas. The comprehensive socio-economic and cultural development of Xinjiang, especially in southern Xinjiang, in recent years has been the fundamental reason for the change in the fertility rate of the Uyghur population in Xinjiang. On the contrary, the Western anti-China forces ignore these facts of comprehensive development, only choose the "data" they want to choose, collect the "materials" they want to collect, and deviate from the academic position of factual argumentation.
Observer Network: We note that in Zheng Guoen's article, he cited data from the published Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook, which shows that from 2018, there was a negative population growth in some counties in the Hotan region, which he used to prove that the Uyghur population in southern Xinjiang was decreasing, thus supporting his "genocide" conclusion. What do you think of this data and his arguments?
Li Jianxin: It is undeniable that such reports abroad have collected a lot of so-called "evidence" such as demographic facts, which originate from our published statistical yearbook. For example, Zheng Guoen's reports on Xinjiang's population issues published in 2020 and 2021 are based on and demonstrated the demographic data indicators of southern Xinjiang in the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook in recent years.
For example, he once used the 2019 Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook, and relevant data show that the population growth rate of Yutian County in Hotan District in 2017 was 10.35 ‰, but in 2018, the population of Yutian County showed negative growth, which was -0.49 ‰. Zheng Guoen argues that this negative growth is the result of the Chinese government's harsh family planning policy and forced intervention against the Uighur population, and is evidence of deliberate "genocide."
It must be admitted that such logical inferences are very deceptive and will indeed deceive many ordinary people. But in fact, this just shows the ignorance of Zheng Guoen's knowledge of demography.
They do not know that the indicators reflecting population change are divided into period indicators and cohort indicators, such as the common period indicators for measuring population fertility levels and population changes are birth rate, total fertility rate, natural population growth rate, etc., while the indicators for measuring cohort fertility levels are lifetime fertility rates. The period indicator of the population (such as the total fertility rate) and the cohort indicator (e.g., lifetime fertility rate) are the same only if the population state, such as the marriage and childbearing pattern, remains unchanged, and when the population state, such as the level of marriage and childbearing and the pattern change rapidly, the period indicator does not reflect the actual fertility level of the cohort.
Because Xinjiang, especially the southern Xinjiang region, is in a stage of comprehensive and rapid development in recent years, including the development of the Uyghur population, especially the development of the female population, such as the increase in the employment rate of women, the popularization of high school education, and the change in the concept of marriage and childbearing, these development changes have directly brought about the fundamental change in its marriage and childbearing level and mode from "early marriage, early childbearing, multiple fertility and intensive breeding" to "marriageable and fertile and excellent breeding", and the corresponding population period indicators such as the birth rate and population growth rate will inevitably turn from high to low or from positive to negative relatively quickly.
For example, in the past (2017) or the traditional fertility model, women of childbearing age in each period gave birth to the first child at the age of 18, the second child at the age of 21, the third child at the age of 24, the fourth child at the age of 27, etc.; if the second year (2018) began to transform, the number of births and fertility patterns have changed, becoming 20 years old to have the first child, 24 years old to have the second child, 28 years old to have the third child. Then we will observe that by the second year, the original 18-year-old woman will not marry and have a child if she does not meet the new conditions for 20-year-old childbearing; and the woman who can have a second child at the age of 24 has already given birth to her at the age of 21; the same 28-year-old who can have three children has already given birth to three children at the age of 24, and those who have had four children in the past may have given up due to changes in their fertility concepts, or no longer have children because of the implementation of the family planning policy.
The result of such a hypothetical model of fertility levels and pattern shifts may be that the total fertility rate, birth rate, or equal to zero, during the transition years because there are no or few women who meet the new conditions to have children, while at the same time, the level of population deaths remains unchanged, resulting in a natural negative population growth in the region.
The demographic changes of the Uyghur people in the southern Xinjiang region of Xinjiang are in the process of this transformation, and the following table simulates the population period indicators corresponding to the fertility transition in Hotan Yutian County from positive to negative. But in fact, from the perspective of each woman's lifetime, her lifelong fertility level of having three children has not changed.
Therefore, Zheng Guoen used the low or negative population growth data of the southern Xinjiang region of the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook in an attempt to prove that the central government had taken "coercive" measures against the Uyghur population in Xinjiang, which caused a decrease in the Uyghur population, and then concluded that the conclusion of "genocide" was completely wrong and the result of absurd conclusions without understanding demography.
Observer Network: We also noticed that in Zheng Guoen's article, he quoted a number of domestic scholars on the population of Xinjiang and made predictions on the future population of southern Xinjiang, from which it is inferred that by 2040, the loss of the ethnic minority population (Uyghur population) in southern Xinjiang due to the central government's intervention in fertility is 2.6 million to 4.5 million.
Li Jianxin: For future population projections, assumptions are important. Simply put, because his assumptions are wrong, so are the conclusions. To inspect and judge Xinjiang's population development, it is necessary not only to have a comprehensive understanding of the comprehensive development of the various undertakings of the people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang, but also to understand the history of the development of China's population policy.
A basic fact is that during the period when China's Han population implemented a strict family planning policy, China's ethnic minority population policy was relatively relaxed, and this was especially true for ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, especially the Uyghur population in southern Xinjiang. Today, China has begun to implement the three-child policy without distinction between ethnic groups and regions, and the people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang, including the Uighurs, are no exception. In fact, even before the implementation of the New Population Policy, xinjiang's rural areas were already a three-child policy.
Common sense of the population tells us that if the Uyghurs in Xinjiang give birth according to the population policy, from the perspective of population reproduction, because they are three children, the final population is expanded reproduction, that is, the reproduction of the growing population. That being the case, no matter how much evidence the Anti-China forces in the West use, such as the so-called "optimization of the population structure" and "forcing" the Uyghur population to move out and in, will the Uyghur population be forcibly reduced?! Of course not! If not, why did the Beijing government intervene in fertility to deliberately reduce the "Uyghur population" and talk about "genocide"?!
We have seen that such a simple common sense, Zheng Guoen has painstakingly collected a large number of "evidence" to confuse the public opinion, trying to make everyone discard this common sense and believe their sophistry.
The population projection hypothesis in Zheng Guoen's text also reflects his disregard for the laws of population development and his ignorance of demography knowledge. In his projection hypothesis, he takes the natural population growth rate of southern Xinjiang, which is now in the lower transition period, as a parameter, which itself does not correspond to the current implementation of the three-child lifelong birth policy without difference among ethnic groups, including the Uighurs, and it is not surprising that the wrong assumptions draw wrong conclusions.
An even more outrageous explanation is that he believes that if the population of southern Xinjiang does not reach 13.14 million in 2040, it will be the result of state intervention in the fertility of the Uighur population. In the eyes of Zheng Guoen's anti-China forces, Uyghur women in Xinjiang seem to be fertility machines, and it is normal to maintain a high fertility level all the time.
What we want to say is that the population of Xinjiang, including the Uyghur population, will also follow the law of population development, and it is inevitable to move towards low growth, which is the inevitable result of the people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang pursuing comprehensive development and pursuing a better life, rather than the result of state intervention in fertility, and the national birth policy gives the people of all ethnic groups in the country enough fertility space.
Therefore, his interpretation is completely wrong. In fact, no matter how "diligently" Zheng Guo'en collects "materials" to argue his point of view, it is futile, because the starting point and assumptions are wrong!
From an academic point of view, the views of anti-China forces such as Zheng Guoen are not worth refuting, but in terms of the harmfulness of spreading and propagating "fallacies," because they are very deceptive, they have to be refuted again and again.
This article is the exclusive manuscript of the observer network, the content of the article is purely the author's personal views, does not represent the platform views, unauthorized, may not be reproduced, otherwise will be investigated for legal responsibility. Pay attention to the observer network WeChat guanchacn, read interesting articles every day.