【Editor's Note】This article is authorized by the author himself and reproduced from the public account "Yang Fan Review".
The Mystery of the War in Ukraine: (1)
Why did the 64-kilometer tank unit stagnate?
A few days ago, many articles on the Internet said that Russia's 4,000 tanks were lined up for 64 kilometers, and it was inevitable to march into Kiev.
The fact is that on the tenth day of the war, the tanks remained unmoved. This is not in line with the principles of blitzkrieg, let alone putin's invincible style.
Little Pink tried to find reasons and would make up a story: saying that Putin did not want to hurt civilians when he talked about humanitarianism; that he did not use all his strength in the first stage; that he wanted to eliminate the living forces of the Ukrainian army without fighting for one city and one place; and so on.
An article on wargame deduction said that Putin underestimated Ukraine's will to fight, thought it could successfully occupy Kiev, and did not launch a strong firepower. This is a more reasonable explanation.
Delay these days: Ukraine mobilized, Germany rearmed; economic sanctions. NATO countries have said they will not send troops, recruiting 15,000 volunteers, 20,000 Stinger missiles, and thousands of launchers in place. Stinger missile: $40,000 a piece, 24-hour all-weather use, can be launched in one direction, and the missile is automatically aimed after launch, which can hit 4800 meters. The launcher, $6,000 a piece, one meter five long, more than 30 pounds, one person can carry it, and another person carries a missile box. Computer command of individual combat. A small number of tanks were destroyed, and the entire convoy was paralyzed.
Will it be played in the next two days? Ukraine has snowed and the roads are muddy.
Heavy snow filled the sky, and the Russian tank unit delayed the opportunity to enter Kiev for several days. On the fifth day, Putin sacrificed his nuclear weapons in order to deter NATO reinforcements and continue to take Kiev.
According to Putin's plan, March 6 is the last day, and it is today. In my personal estimation, Putin still can't take Kiev. Having taken Kiev, the Ukrainian government will not surrender.
Chinese Command and Control Society 2022-03-04 14:34 The article points out
Two weeks before the attack, the U.S. Marine Corps University conducted a 4-day wargame deduction
There are two deviations from reality:
(1) Russian forces reached west of the Dnieper River from Belarus – north of Kiev
Attack the city from the rear. After the Kherson attack was suspended, the southern axis of travel shifted to attack Mariupol from the northeast
(2) Missile air strikes, the elimination of the Ukrainian Air Force, the destruction of the integrated air defense system, the acquisition of freedom of air mobility - air supremacy, the destruction of coastal defense systems
The actual number of strikes in the first 24 hours is the same as the number of Russian opponents in the wargame deduction, but the impact is different. In the real conflict, Russia has a wider target and is not enough to overwhelm Ukraine's defenses.
On the fifth day of the war, the Ukrainian air defense system was still functioning
The main targets of the Wargames exercise were Kiev, the Dnieper Bend, Kherson and Odes
Around the S-300 system. The second is the U-Dozens BUK (SA-17) system. The Ukrainian core integrated air defense network was paralyzed for the first two days. On the fourth day, the Ukrainian Air Force was completely destroyed.
Concentrated fire destroys the Ukrainian fire support system.
In fact, the Russian army was obviously reluctant to bury the Ukrainian army in the sea of fire, which surprised Western observers.
In the wargame, the focus of the strike is on eliminating Ukraine's air force and air defense network, and air and missile attacks occur before the ground offensive begins
The actual situation is that Russia chose to carry out the ground offensive at the same time, failed to quickly disintegrate the resistance, and the frustration grew day by day.
Three brigades of the Ukrainian faction counterattacked the Russian armored flank and engaged in a massive engagement 40 kilometers northwest of Kharkov. Both the Russian 27th Guards Independent Motorized Infantry Brigade and the 92nd Mechanized Brigade were destroyed. The Ukrainian army had better stay in the city of Kharkov and become another Stalingrad.
(ii) On the third day of the wargame exercise, Russia attacked Kherson
Only two bridges were targeted on the southern section of the Dnieper River
Russia's fastest and most successful advance from Crimea. West to Odessa
The fifth day is similar to the deduction
A brigade in northern Ukraine launched a destructive attack on Russian forces on the Border of Belarus.
At the end of the deduction, the northern Ukrainian troops were under great pressure, and a brigade was basically not involved in the battle, straddling the Kiev Passage. If supported, the Ukrainians could defend for a long time
The Russians blockaded the passage to Kiev and the eastern part of the Dnieper River, crossed the Chernobyl exclusion zone across the Belarusian border into the northwest. Encircling Kharkov to the east, the 8th Combined Armed Army emerged from the Donetsk region and launched an offensive on the Melitopol and Dnieper rivers
In the actual conflict, Russia's attempt to go to Kiev to behead the government seems counterproductive. Many observers were surprised that when Ukraine was not easily defeated and did not surrender, Russia chose more of a dense firepower war.
Ukraine achieved some early victories, showed incredible courage, gained international support, and could eventually have a fatal impact on Russian goals.
One wonders whether Russia's prolonged failure to harness its enormous firepower prior to operations on the ground could be marked as a mismatch by historians.
In the wargame, Russia deliberately limited its firepower based on strategic considerations that forced Ukraine to surrender quickly. Russia may be convinced that the Ukrainians will see them as liberators and that it will be easy to march to Kiev. Most of the repressive fire complex was retained to avoid destroying a lot of infrastructure and hurting too many Ukrainian "brothers".
This is the reasoning of wargame deduction, and the latest reports show that it is also the idea that dominates the Kremlin. Now Russia must realize that it has seriously misjudged and deviated from clausewitz's most important motto:
"The first and most far-reaching judgment that statesmen and commanders must make is to determine ... What kind of war they are going to wage; neither misjudge it nor try to turn it into something completely different in nature. This is the primary and most comprehensive of all strategic issues. ”
Ukraine must now figure out what Russia might do next, and the Russian president believes that this operation is not an invasion.
Russia must now be thinking about its next move. The intensity of resistance from the Ukrainian army and people far exceeded the expectations of the Russian president and his senior commanders. This situation will continue to worsen as something becomes apparent. The Russian military's ability to carry out a large-scale joint attack may not be as good as advertised. Ukraine's current resistance is not yet comparable to Finland's confrontation with Stalin's Red Army in the Winter War of 1940, but the possibility that Ukraine will hold out for weeks or months must be part of the consideration of everyone, including Russia.
The fact that the Ukrainian president is still able to communicate with his commanders and the outside world has strategically promoted the development of information warfare and boosted the morale of Ukrainians. Because of his ability to maintain communication with the outside world, the Ukrainian president single-handedly changed the strategic balance and won the support of the West, including the support of anti-tank weapons provided by Germany and Sweden, which exceeded everyone's expectations.
During the wargame exercise, there was much discussion about the use of information weapons, including cyber weapons. It is worth noting that, apart from the anonymous announcement of a cyberwar against Russia, there are few public reports of actual cyberattacks by both sides.
Before the conflict, one of the West's biggest concerns was Russia's much-vaunted cyber capabilities. So either Russia retains many zero-day vulnerabilities, or it's time to take a closer look at the true dangers of cyber operations. In addition, for the hotly debated mixed wars and gray zone wars, this is an iron-blooded battle, in which Otto von Bismarck will also have the feeling of coming to his home field, which is the field of strength of wargame deduction simulation.
We must acknowledge that Russia is trying to control Ukraine's casualties and infrastructure damage, but it is also difficult to ignore the fact that Russia is slow to act. Our general expectation is that once Russia begins its offensive, it will quickly launch armed raids on Ukraine's main cities – Kiev, Kharkov, Dnipro and Odessa.
But as it stands, the cities have not been captured, and Russia's ground offensive appears to be slowing down, while the resistance and logistical challenges it faces are getting trickier. Russia's advance has slowed down, possibly under political directives. But many observers can now blame Russia's incompetence for much of the reporting from the battlefield.
Russia, with only the Southern Front, achieved the rapid advance that should have been achieved throughout Ukraine. Russia launched its attack from Crimea and has now advanced to Nikolayev, about 150 miles from the Crimean route. Other Russian troops appear to have captured the main town of Melitopol and are marching towards Berdyansk and the port of Mariupol. On the other side, the Ukrainian army has successfully counterattacked and retaken Kherson.
Moreover, so far, Russia has not breached the south of the Dnieper River, and the eastern forces that are advancing north of Kharkov are still some distance from the Dnieper river port. Only north of Kiev, Russia has made progress, but it is also fraught with dangers. But at the time of this writing, even here, Russia's just-begun march toward Kiev appears to be hampered just a few miles north of the city.
At present, Ukraine is still resisting, and the number of their troops, especially the number of air forces, still maintains an advantage. Russia still has the ability to concentrate a large amount of ground fire — artillery, rockets and missiles — which gives it the option to destroy Ukraine at any point in time. If we can glimpse the future through history, the Russian military will eventually be reorganized, learn the lessons of the early days of the war, and determined to move forward again. Russia is preparing to take the actions taken at the end of the wargame.