Russia's attack on Ukraine, the entire Western world under the leadership of the United States strongly resisted, various sanctions will not be repeated, even the traditionally neutral Switzerland has joined the ranks of sanctions, Sweden and Finland to join nato's growing calls. Did the U.S. win the hemp?
It seems to be, but not all.
So far, the US leadership has done nothing at all. Condemnation, boycott, and sanctions are of course echoed by those who take the lead, and those who do not take the lead will spontaneously rise up. Russia has offended the public anger in Europe this time, and it is inevitable that it will rise up and attack it. This is the conditioned reflex of "how dare you".
But the wildfire was rapidly spiraling out of control, with valery Gergiev, the famous conductor of the Munich Philharmonic Orchestra, fired for refusing to condemn Putin, and the famous opera soprano Anna Nerebek (I don't know why, domestic immigrants have ignored the "t", how is it pronounced in Russian?). There was also a boycott, and several Russian ballet performances were cancelled. The Russian women's figure skating "three dolls" of the Beijing Winter Olympics seems to have encountered obstacles in the later events. It is said that even Russian cats have been sanctioned.
It is said that Mendeleev's periodic table was boycotted, Tchaikovsky's music was also boycotted, and if true, Tolstoy and Pushkin should be fast.
It is not the first time that "civilized" Europeans have done such absurd things. On the eve of the First World War, the anglo-French anti-German plot was very popular, Heine and Beethoven were also politically incorrect, and Nietzsche and Schopenhauer were the source of evil. Because of Wagner's anti-Semitic plot, it is still resisted in Israel. Curiously, the anti-Semitic plot of Shakespeare's Merchant of Venice is not to mention that Shakespeare has always been politically correct.
This evil fire may cater to the current anger in Europe and the United States, but it is no longer directed at Putin, but at the entire Russian nation, including its history and culture. This is dangerous and unwise. Even geopolitics cannot encourage such a stupid thing as "growing the enemy." Thus bringing the entire Russian nation into another book can only make the living environment of Russia's pro-European and American political opposition extremely difficult, and they are Putin's greatest political threat.
Sanctioning Russian oligarchs together is also a comical approach. These oligarchs involve black money, may be acting in many places, spending money like dirt has long been hated, and sanctions are very popular with the people. But a large part of these oligarchs are also the patrons of Putin's political opposition. The West is really fierce, and its own people are suddenly sudden.
It is constantly said that these oligarchs have a close relationship with Putin. Individual of these are possible, but the whole is impossible. If you have close relations with Putin, the political and economic foundation should be in Russia, running to London and Geneva to set up camps, such a thing as easy to leave the base area, why should the oligarchs do? Even if you don't know that you will be sanctioned by the West now, Putin and Europe and the United States are not a matter of one day or two days, no one expected to turn the other face so thoroughly, but there is no precaution for the face turn, this oligarchic support or sanctions are almost the same. How many of China's giant greedy people have transferred assets abroad because there are "people above"? They all slipped away when they saw that the situation was not good.
Such indiscriminate sanctions and resistances from Europe and the United States are driving fish for the abyss, and this abyss is Putin.
Putin is a very scheming man and a good learner. It is difficult to say whether he saw the 58 bombings, the plane collision in the South China Sea, and the united States in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea as a role in rallying the Chinese people's hearts. China also had an era of confusion and confusion, and now the people's hearts and minds are the most cohesive since the reform and opening up. There are elements of pride brought about by national development, and there are also factors of external "compression". Speaking of which, it is still external "compression" that comes first.
Russia's antagonism with Europe and the United States has intensified in recent years, but it is still not enough to unite the Hearts and Minds of The Russians. Will Putin use war to break the boat and force Russia to decouple itself from Europe and the United States ideologically and culturally? Such indiscriminate anti-Russianism is the best driving force for decoupling.
In this sense, the United States not only did not win, but also lost. A united and hateful enemy is much harder to deal with than a scattered enemy.
The leadership of the United States is only in Europe and "European and Americans tonight" Japan, South Korea and Australia, not to mention China, Serbia, Belarus, and even India. Turkey, Georgia, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Pakistan, the African Union, ASEAN and the Arab League have all refused to sanction Russia. In fact, few Countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America have kept up. They may not support Russia, but they refuse to follow the United States against Russia, which is very important for Russia.
In addition, the open choice of traditionally neutral countries such as Switzerland, Sweden and Finland shows the unity of the West on the one hand, and on the other hand, it also makes the West lose its "honest intermediary". During the Cold War era, these neutral states provided access and became mediators or observers of the situation in conflict. After losing its neutral position, these unique roles were also blown away.
The West has constantly oppressed China in the Ukraine situation, and China has always refused to support Russia or support Ukraine, but has insisted on a neutral position. If in the end China becomes an acceptable mediator for all parties, this will greatly promote China's international status and will not be good news for the United States.
An "honest middleman" needs not only to be neutral, but also to have sufficient international influence, otherwise no one will accept it. Russia and Ukraine cannot accept Tonga as a mediator, and that is the truth. China may be seen as a "sympathetic intermediary," but who isn't? Sweden in World War II was such an "interlocutor of sympathy", sympathizing with Germany, not the Allies.
Is Russia the winner? It's still in the stage of gambling, and in the end it's either a big win or a big loss, but it's hard to say now.
Is the U.S. the winner? The cost of gambling in the United States is not small. The United States and the European Union are quietly vying for leadership in Ukraine. The United States seems to have the absolute upper hand in public opinion, the European Union is not idle, and the donation of Soviet-made fighter jets from EU member states to Ukraine is a big move, which is challenging the leadership of European security. This was stirred up by the United States, which refused to pay for Europe's blank checks. It is said that Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovakia handed over miG-29s and Su-25s to Ukraine, and the three countries received second-hand F-16s from the United States (or NATO allies) as compensation. But this may be wishful thinking on the part of the EU. This means that NATO is actually doomed, and the consequences are unpredictable, and NATO is the ultimate successor.
Remember, the EU is the "Europe of Europe" and NATO is the "Europe of america"? Putin's war in Ukraine also deliberately opened the rift between the two, partially successful. Now is the time for "unanimous confrontation", and the differences between the EU and NATO will cover up the past, but when will they resurface?
What the United States is most likely to lose is the credibility of being a "defender of the free world." The United States has provided Ukraine with all the aid it can imagine, but not the aid ukraine needs most urgently: the direct intervention of the U.S. military to defend Ukraine. Regardless of the subsequent war, Ukraine seems to be broken, and it is difficult for the credibility of the United States to be intact.
The most nervous thing in the world right now is Taiwan. Compared with the "obligations" of the United States to Ukraine and Taiwan, Taiwan can only be more chilled. No matter how many "former senior national security officials" the United States sends to Taiwan to appease them, it will not be useful, and Pompeo will not be able to use it.
Is China the winner? China is a "no-cost business" in Ukraine, and in the short term it will be a small win at best. But in the long run, it may be a big win. After the War in Ukraine, unless Russia is completely defeated or even dismembered, it will be difficult for Europe and the United States to get off the anti-Russian platform. Russia, pushed away, can only embrace China. The old bear was too big to hold on to others. World factories and world treasures back to back, let's open your imagination.
The so-called blood transfusion between China and Russia is an unnecessary worry. After the reform and opening up, China has not done blood transfusions. There are many long-term investments along the Belt and Road, but they are all investments, which are to be returned, and they are rich enough returns. The West pressured China to cancel its debt to Africa, but China resolutely refused, that is, it did not want to be forced to transfuse blood.
Russia is vast, populous and sparsely populated, and highly educated. Russians are not lazy, and every household outside Moscow grows green and diligently. What is needed are the right policies and examples. Will using patriotism and foreign pressure to rally people's hearts and minds, and use China's example and funds to drive Russia's economic development, will this be Putin's political legacy to Russia?
I don't know, I won't know until 20 years later.