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Did Russia misestimate the war against Ukraine? These 3 situations contribute to the development of events

author:Weapons knowledge

In the fierce fighting led by the Russian army, the course of russia's war against Ukraine continues, and the pace of the war has not been eased by the first negotiations between the two sides in Belarus since the declaration of war.

On the ground, Western and Ukrainian sources said Ukrainian troops had put up fierce resistance on multiple fronts in the face of the advance of Russian troops, especially around major cities.

Meanwhile, Western diplomats and intelligence officials confirmed that Russia is seeking to "eliminate" Kiev's pro-Western leaders, led by Vladimir Zelenskiy, and form a new government in the coming days.

Did Russia misestimate the war against Ukraine? These 3 situations contribute to the development of events

"Fierce resistance"

On the other hand, the spokesman of the Russian armed forces, General Igor Konashenkov, said that the Ukrainian armed forces are not the units most involved in hostilities. He added that the "fierce resistance" encountered by the army of the Republic of Luhansk was limited to the "Ukrainian Azov battalion".

In addition, Konashenkov said, there is evidence that Ukrainian military intelligence has previously inserted nationalist groups into regular military units of the Ukrainian armed forces, who have received special training and whose task is to determine which of the Ukrainian soldiers cannot be relied upon.

According to the Russian general, nationalists have committed more than one case of killing and revenge against conscripts who do not want to fight, and they continue to intimidate others in this way.

According to the Russian military, the task forces are blowing up bridges to rule out the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.

In any case, Russian military experts believe that even under strong resistance from the armed forces inside Ukraine, russian troops will need at most a few weeks to control the whole of Ukraine.

They estimate that the cost of military action is about 1 percent of Russia's gross domestic product.

Did Russia misestimate the war against Ukraine? These 3 situations contribute to the development of events

Minimal planning

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Russian military expert and assistant professor at the Military University of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Vladimir Karyakin said Moscow's military leadership attaches particular importance to the human factor, managing attack and confrontation plans in order to minimize the possibility of casualties among Russian soldiers.

Karyakin noted that the fighting in Ukraine was led mainly by nationalists, not regular soldiers in the Ukrainian army, who possessed chauvinist ideology and were ideologically mobilized to fight Russia. He added that after the outbreak of war, it was impossible for both sides to be without casualties.

The military expert explained that the course of the first few days of the fighting clearly showed that Kiev was more interested in propaganda against Russia than in military readiness.

He added that Russian troops would wipe out Ukrainian nationalist fighters anyway, and it was estimated that the losses of Russian troops would not exceed hundreds of soldiers.

Did Russia misestimate the war against Ukraine? These 3 situations contribute to the development of events

3 scenarios

At the same time, Igor Nikolaichuk, director of the Regional Security Department of the Military Research Institute, believes that 3 situations may contribute to the development of the incident:

The first case: the minimum plan of the Russian operation is to reach the border of the declared republic (i.e. the border of the Luhansk and Donetsk administrative districts) and stop there.

The second scenario: ensuring the restoration of water supply through the North Crimean Canal (which actually happened on the evening of February 24), and the restoration of direct rail links between Russia and Crimea, even if this would reduce the value of the Crimea Bridge, but the railway would bring peace to the republic.

The third scenario: pushing forward until the Sea of Azov becomes Russia's inland sea, according to his assessment, Russia will need about 20 days to control the area on the right bank of the Dnieper River and, most importantly, to exert control over the 7 bridges that cross it, as well as Kiev.

Overall, Russian forces are advancing from the north, south and east of Ukraine, and russian troops have successfully entered some Ukrainian residential areas near the border.

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