#乌克兰战事到哪一步了 #
As soon as the Ukrainian War broke out, within 2 hours, Ukraine lost its air force and navy, and then had to rely on the army to fight. Moreover, the Russian army has reached Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and landed in Odessa. What was Russia's war model in the War in Ukraine? I think it was the punitive model of the Kosovo war, the complete emasculation of Ukraine, which is expected to end the war within a month.
01
The nature of this war is defined by Russia as a war of self-defense and counterattack.
Why is it defined as a self-defense counterattack? It is because NATO has expanded east to Ukraine, Ukraine has become a front-line position for the United States to threaten Russia, and in order to protect Russia, Russia has sent troops to Ukraine to destroy the hegemony and puppet regime of the United States in Ukraine, which is Russia's goal in the War in Ukraine.
The United States provoked the war in Ukraine to achieve three goals: First, to tear up Russian-European relations and completely form a new Cold War against Russia. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, Europe and the United States began to jointly sanction Russia. But in the midst of sanctions, the EU leaves room for manoeuvre. After all, the EU's economy is inseparable from Russia, sanctions are a double-edged sword, and it is the EU that ultimately suffers losses. The second is to seize the opportunity to increase troops and strengthen military control over Central and Eastern Europe. The United States has abandoned Central Asia and strengthened its military control over Central and Eastern Europe, indicating that it will die to preserve European hegemony. The third is to drive European capital, talents, and industries to the United States, alleviate the pressure of the US economic crisis, and stimulate US economic growth.
Judging from the current situation, the strategic objectives of the United States have not been fully achieved. Although sanctions have been imposed on Russia, the effect and stability are difficult to say. Although the troops were increased, they were both deployed in Poland and Germany, presumably to infiltrate through the Ukrainian border and fight a special operations mode of Ukrainian war. Although some of the assets, talents, and industries went to the United States, the war was currently confined to Ukraine and would be difficult to spread throughout Europe. Therefore, the subsequent development of the war is very important, determining whether the strategic goals of the United States are achieved or not.
02
Russia's Choice of Ukrainian War Mode has three: Punishment Mode? Occupation mode? Overturning the pattern?
Punishment model: This model is the Kosovo War model, in 1999 the United States fought the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, through 78 days of air raids, achieved three goals, that is, dismembered the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, destroyed the infrastructure of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and arrested the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Milosevic. It has played a strategic deterrent role in the Central and Eastern European countries, thus achieving hegemonic control over the Central and Eastern European countries.
Will Russia adopt a punitive model against Ukraine? The possibility is very large, because the punishment model does not require a burden, after all, Ukraine has tens of millions of people, the economy is full of holes, if Russia carries it, it will increase the economic burden and become a hot potato.
If it is a model of punishment, Russia's strategic goal is threefold: First, to continue to dismember Ukraine and divide it into east and west. The second is to destroy Ukraine's military infrastructure and arsenals, leaving Ukraine without the ability to fight. The third is to arrest Zelenskiy and force Ukraine to sign a new agreement, become a neutral zone, de-militarize, and not allow it to join NATO.
Occupation model: This model is similar to the War in Afghanistan and Iraq initiated by the United States, and is a war model aimed at occupying Ukraine. The occupation model was easy at first, but it was easy to carry the burden and make the civil resistance long-term. The United States fought afghanistan and Iraq for a month, but it was seen as an aggressor and trapped in a long war attrition.
Russia has taken Crimea and the Donbass region, attacking and retreating. If Ukraine is occupied, it is easy to be isolated internationally and easily fall into the trap of Ukraine, because the United States and NATO have deployed infiltrated military forces on the Ukrainian border in the hope of dragging down Russia through this war of attrition.
Overthrow model: The so-called overthrow model is to overthrow the Ukrainian puppet regime currently controlled by the United States, establish a pro-Russian Ukrainian regime, and achieve the goal of Ukraine not joining NATO, not being hostile to Russia, and maintaining friendly relations with Russia.
03
Which strategic model does Russia choose at present military posture?
It has been three days since Russia launched the Ukrainian war, and all kinds of information are flying all over the place, and judging from the information currently released by all parties, Russia has basically accomplished three major goals: First, the Ukrainian Navy and Air Force have lost their combat effectiveness, and in the absence of air and sea supremacy, it is more difficult for ukraine's army to exert its combat effectiveness. The second is that the soldiers are fast and fast, encircling kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and then Kiev is a big war, and it is possible to surrender without a fight. The third is that the Russian army landed in Odessa, an important port city in the south of Ukraine, cutting off the possibility of supplying Ukraine by sea.
The capture of Kiev serves the purpose of "catching the thief before the king", because the Ukrainian government and Zelenskiy are in Kiev. Taking Odessa is equivalent to cutting off the possibility of foreign aid supply at sea. If a line is drawn from Kiev to Odessa, it is equivalent to dividing Ukraine into east and west, completely dismembering Ukraine, making Ukraine hurt its bones, and never threatening Russia again.
Therefore, judging from the current situation of Russian military operations, I think that Russia's combat objectives are: based on the punishment model, the overthrow model and the occupation model are unlikely.
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