On February 25, Mikhail Podoliyak, director of the Office of the President of Ukraine, issued a statement saying that Ukraine was ready to negotiate with Russia and that ukraine needed security guarantees. Just earlier on the 25th, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy claimed in a speech posted on social platforms that the West had abandoned Ukraine.
Zelenskiy said he had asked the leaders of 27 European countries if Ukraine could join NATO, but had not received any positive answer. But Zelenskiy's speech was somewhat intriguing, saying that Ukraine was not afraid to negotiate with Russia, including guaranteeing Ukraine's security and Ukraine's neutrality, because Ukraine is not yet a NATO country.
Zelenskiy's speech was informative
First of all, the most direct point is that because Ukraine is not a NATO country, it does not have to consider the faces of NATO countries and the interests of NATO countries in negotiations with Russia. This means that after years of wrangling and complete abandonment by the West, the disheartened Zelenskiy had to accept the reality and prepare to negotiate with Russia on the premise of ensuring Ukraine's security.
Second, Zelenskiy's speech was almost tantamount to declaring Ukraine ready to surrender. Since Russia officially declared war on Ukraine on the 24th, the Ukrainian side has suffered huge losses, Russia has used missiles to carry out precision strikes on key targets in Ukraine, including Kharkov, Odessa and other important places, and according to the photos published on the Internet, the Russian army is still advancing, and there is no sign of stopping.
According to the list of attacks released by the Russian side earlier, 11 military airfields, 13 command and communication centers, 14 sets of S300 and "Wasp" field air defense systems, 36 radar stations were hit, and many armored vehicles were destroyed. For Ukraine, due to the huge disparity in size, sustained resistance without NATO support will only cost Ukraine more.
Finally, Zelenskiy's statement of "ensuring Ukraine's security" is very likely that Ukraine will return to Russia's circle of relations: since NATO is unreliable, if the price given by Russia is high enough, then Ukraine may really fall to Russia, especially Zelenskiy's "Ukraine is not yet a NATO country", which shows the great resentment of Ukraine's attitude toward NATO. Why is Zelensky's speech basically equivalent to surrender? Because Zelenskiy's statement is consistent with Russia's basic demands on Ukraine.
Russia's bottom line
Russia's bottom line against Ukraine mainly has two points, the first point is that Ukraine must not fall to the West, let alone join NATO, which is the red line drawn by Russian President Putin. Once Ukraine joins NATO, nato's expansion will directly border Russia, and the distance between NATO and Moscow will be greatly shortened, making it difficult for Russia to guarantee the security of its territory. If NATO uses Ukraine as the forward position of anti-missile forces, Russia's strategic deterrent capability will be greatly weakened, so Russia has a "zero tolerance" attitude toward Ukraine's pursuit of NATO.
Second, the deployment of NATO weapons and equipment in Ukraine is prohibited. Before the complete outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, the United States and the United Kingdom and other countries urgently assisted Ukraine with a large amount of weapons and equipment, and in the form of air transport directly to Ukraine, these weapons and equipment are mainly anti-tank weapons. This is a very bad start for Russia, sending anti-tank missiles to Ukraine today, can we send cruise missiles or even ballistic missiles next time? So this one is also Russia's red line.
NATO's attitude toward Ukraine could force Ukraine to go to the other extreme
Looking at the events in Ukraine so far, it can be seen that Ukraine is only a pawn of the United States and NATO, mainly used to test Russia's bottom line, which is the main reason why the United States continues to arch on the Ukrainian issue. Once we continue to tolerate this issue, Russia's bottom line will be completely broken, and it may fall into total passivity in terms of the international situation.
In other words, Ukraine is just a platform for the United States and NATO to join forces with Russia in political games, and even if aid is provided to Ukraine, it is based on the interests of the United States. Since Ukraine overthrew the pro-Russian president under the intervention of external forces in 2014, Ukraine has not found its own position, but once believed that Ukraine was indispensable in the Western anti-Russian environment, so there was a scene in which former Ukrainian President Poroshenko threatened to close gas pipelines in a vain attempt to force Europe to support and "oppose Russia" with Ukraine.
However, as long as Russia maintains a large nuclear arsenal, then Ukraine's desire to join NATO is a false proposition. What's more, during the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine did a lot of things to coerce Europe, and allowing such an unstable factor to join NATO is also a disaster for NATO's defense assistance system. Therefore, whether from the perspective of Russia's strategic deterrence or from the perspective of NATO's own interests, Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO, and Zelenskiy can only face reality in this case.
It is worth noting that since the outbreak of civil unrest in Ukraine in 2013, its economy has been hit hard, not only in a serious recession, but also in the face of extremely high hyperinflation, and the industrial base has been devastated. Once the pearl of Soviet industry and the granary of Europe, it has long been replaced by negative words and has become one of the poorest countries in Europe. If Ukraine continues to dwell on joining NATO, what awaits Ukraine will be an endless abyss.
According to the latest reports, the Russian army has begun to advance towards Kiev, faster than most people predicted. For Zelenskiy, if nato is abandoned and returned to the arms of Russia, the situation in Ukraine is stabilized by the hand of Russia, and the influence exerted by Western countries on Ukraine is eliminated, so that Ukraine can become a truly neutral country.
For Ukraine to end the years-long conflict in Donbass and stabilize its economy, perhaps NATO's silence will push Ukraine to the other extreme, that is, to fully invest in Russia, as was the case during the administration of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych. As of press time, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to "return to the negotiating table."