According to Reuters, in order to put pressure on Russia, The Ukrainian foreign minister called for it to be kicked out of SWIFT. The United States cooperated overnight and held a meeting with the leaders of the Group of Seven, claiming to launch "devastating sanctions."
But they didn't give a specific account of russia's removal from the SWIFT system. After all, this is a "financial nuclear bomb" and cannot be used at will.
Compared with the freezing of Russian assets in the United States and the large-scale sanctions imposed by the European Union, the removal of Russia from the SWIFT system is powerful, harmful, and wide-ranging. It's like dropping a nuclear bomb in reality and radiating decay for decades.
Swift's full name is "Global Banking Financial Telecommunication Association", in 1973, in order to allow countries around the world to complete the transfer, securities, stocks and other transactions, more than 200 countries partnered to establish a group chat, SWIFT was officially established, 11,000 banks and financial institutions around the world have done "membership cards".
To put it simply, we think of currency as a commodity, two countries transfer behavior, the need for "logistics", SWIFT is equivalent to this currency logistics, and Belgium is a small boss. Bank cross-border transfers need to go SWIFT, customers can check the progress of remittances, regulators can also check the ins and outs of this money.
SWIFT's position is the oil for the operation of the global trade business, and parents will also use this to transfer pocket money to their children studying abroad. It is a non-profit international cooperation organization, but it is actually difficult to get rid of political influence.
Under normal circumstances, SWIFT supports all currency transactions, but in the "big group chat", the United States is still the one with the largest voice.
You know, the US dollar is the most commonly used settlement currency in international trade, and it is also the most important foreign exchange reserve currency in other countries. The most active in the world's financial system is the US dollar, and as SWIFT's largest customer, the United States has naturally gained the status of "group owner".
When the "9/11 Incident" occurred, the United States suffered a big loss. George W. Bush, then president of the United States, asked the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control to retrieve information on transactions related to "terrorist activities" from SWIFT, strictly review all international accounts, and block the flow of funds from terrorist organizations.
After some tossing, the originally neutral SWIFT system was almost controlled by the "big customer" of the United States. If you want to impose economic sanctions on other countries, isn't that just a matter of lip service? As long as the circulation of other countries' currencies is cut off, their imports and exports will be restricted, business cannot be done, and normal cross-border trade will be basically abolished.
Whoever let them have guns and gangsters threatened the small swiss boss in Belgium at every turn: "Later you will have to listen to me, and I say that if there is contraband in any of the goods, you will have to report to me and stop the transportation." The little boss saw the "eagle" carrying a heavy weapon, how dare he say the word "no"?
Iran has been sanctioned by the United States, and four of their major banks have been kicked out of the SWIFT system, turning the country into a financial island and seriously damaged the economy.
Even with SWIFT remittances between EU member states, the United States can intervene. In 2012, a Danish businessman violated the U.S. embargo on Cuba, and the money he transferred to a German bank through SWIFT was directly intercepted and transferred to the U.S. Treasury Department.
Russia is certainly no exception, after the Crimean incident, the United States pulled them into the "blacklist" and launched so-called sanctions. Russia is barricaded from the European and American financial systems, so that every time they send international remittances, they have to report to the banks layer by layer, and all remittance methods and purposes must be checked.
People use SWIFT to make money, and it takes three or five days to get it, but Russia has to toss it for a month. Not reporting? Of course not, the regulator will simply shut down the bank. Banks and companies in many countries are not willing to do business with Russia, after all, the process is too complicated.
These dynamic economic sanctions have long drained Russia's trust in the dollar. Since this group does not let me mix in it, it is better to pull another group.
After the "Ukraine crisis" broke out in 2014, the United States immediately pulled the Allies to initiate financial sanctions. Russia didn't bother to break it up, and they went straight to building their own financial information exchange system: SPFS.
In 2018, Russia began to "de-dollarize", and the following year, SPFS was officially put into use. According to statistics, about 400 financial institutions and Russian banks participated in the project, and 8 foreign banks joined.
In recent years, China has also moved towards the process of "de-dollarization", and in 2015, the Chinese Bank of China presided over the establishment of CIPS, which only supports the settlement of rmb, which can save transaction costs and transaction time, and promote the popularity of RMB around the world. At present, there are about 30 countries that accept RMB settlement.
But now it seems that too few countries have joined Russia's financial trading system. SPFS is still only a small group, and it is not enough to replace SWIFT and shake the hegemony of the US dollar.
More than 300 banks in Russia have joined the SWIFT system, and if they are kicked out, it is equivalent to encountering the most stringent financial measures, and the losses caused are not small. Most international financial transactions will shield Russia, oil and gas business is cold, profits are almost zero, these two areas alone, can make Russia's fiscal revenue loss of more than 40%.
Domestic enterprises have no living space, can only run out and mix, a large amount of capital will flee. In 2014, Russia predicted that if they lost the right to use SWIFT, finance would suffer a "nuclear strike" .
The economic downturn will inevitably lead to social problems, rising crime rates, rising prices, market collapse, and even tragic cases of state bankruptcy. In 2021, Russia's GDP growth rate is only 4.7%, and it is very likely that it will not be able to withstand this "big move".
However, at present, Europe and the United States will not do this. In the early morning of February 25, several members of the European Union, after consultation, only announced a "large-scale sanction", which did not include natural gas, after all, without Russian gas, their winter is not good. As for kicking Russia out of the SWIFT system, several EU member states said that such a measure was unlikely.
Because there are too many business contacts between Europe and Russia, such as Germany, they are actually the middlemen of Russian gas in Europe and make a lot of money. Although the status of the us dollar is important, the economies of the world have long been closely linked. Who can sanction a country without being implicated?
After Iran was kicked out of SWIFT, Europe's economy was hit hard. They also reacted and did business with other Middle Eastern countries under U.S. control, which is really expensive. So last December, 14 European countries helped Iran develop a new trading mechanism that would allow normal trade settlement without SWIFT.
This time the United States has targeted Russia, it seems that it will indeed cause a heavy blow to their banks, but the funds of European creditors must also be transferred through SWIFT, if you want to make money with group red envelopes, you must not be in the group?
In this way, Europe will inevitably suffer heavy losses. "De-dollarization" is a big trend, and Russia is building another payment system, and it is not certain who to fight.
Although China can't do it now, we must continue to work in this direction and not let the Americans bully us.
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