In 2021, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the work of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development will be promoted as a whole, and the main expected goals of the mainland's economic and social development will be fully realized, and a good start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been achieved. The concrete and cement products industry actively implements the development goals of the national "14th Five-Year Plan", builds a new development pattern of the industry, overcomes many difficulties, works hard, and firmly promotes the high-quality development of the industry to move in depth, and the industry economy has achieved stable operation and growth overall.
First, the review of the economic operation of the industry in 2021
(1) Overview of the output and economic indicators of the main products
1. Main product output
In 2021, the output of commercial concrete and precast concrete piles of concrete and cement products industrial enterprises above designated size hit a record high; however, in addition to the growth rate of commercial concrete, precast concrete piles and other products with the same caliber to achieve year-on-year growth, the output growth rate of concrete drainage pipes, concrete pressure pipes, concrete poles and other products has decreased to varying degrees year-on-year.
Table 1 In 2021, the output of the main products of the enterprises and the year-on-year increase or decrease (of the same caliber) were reported
Note: Due to the annual changes in the scope of industrial enterprises above designated size, in order to ensure that the data of this year are comparable with the previous year, the number of the same period used for the year-on-year growth rate of product output indicators is consistent with the statistical scope of enterprises in the current period, and there is a difference in caliber with the data of the previous year.
2. Main economic indicators
In 2021, the main business income of concrete and cement products industrial enterprises above designated size accumulated 2,099.685 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2% over the previous year in the same caliber, and the total economic volume of the industry reached a new high; the total profit was 85.358 billion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate of the same caliber was 6.42% lower than that of the previous year, and the annual negative growth rate appeared for the first time.
Description: 1. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial legal person units with annual main business income of 20 million yuan or more.
2. The growth rate of indicators such as the total profit and main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size is calculated according to comparable caliber, and there are incomparable factors between the data of the reporting period and the same indicator data published in the previous year, and the growth rate cannot be directly compared.
(2) Characteristics of the economic operation of the industry in 2021
1. The output growth rate of the industry's main products is high and low, and the output of the two major products maintains growth but the growth rate slows down
In the second half of 2020, the production and economic operation of the industry have steadily recovered and improved month by month, reflecting the effective force of the supply side of the industry and ensuring the rapid recovery of the progress of national and local project construction.
In 2021, the output growth rate of the industry's main products showed a high and low and completely different trend from the past. On the basis of the full realization of the resumption of work and production in 2020, the beginning of 2021 continued the operation trend of the previous year, the growth rate of the industry's main products was declining month by month after the high level at the beginning of the year, only the ready-mixed concrete and concrete precast piles maintained growth, but the growth rate slowed down month by month; the growth rate of concrete drainage pipes and concrete pressure pipes slowed down from the previous year to this year; the growth rate of concrete poles decreased for two consecutive years (see Figure 1 The monthly output of the industry's main products in 2021 increased or decreased).
Figure 1 Monthly output increase or decrease of major products in the industry in 2021 (unit: %)
2021 is the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan", in order to ensure the economic growth goals, promote the coordinated development of major projects and water conservancy, transportation, old community transformation, new urbanization construction, rural revitalization construction and new infrastructure investment in the field of people's livelihood is expected to increase, the state actively promote the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body, the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other, benefiting from these favorable pulls, industry demand further rebounded, once showing both supply and demand. In the second half of the year, due to the tightening of financial policies and environmental protection policies, the prices of upstream raw materials rose sharply, and the new crown epidemic was superimposed on the multi-point distribution, the market demand declined, and the production and operation of the industry were under pressure.
Taking the precast concrete pile industry as an example, the market rebounded in the first quarter of this year, and the demand surged, especially in the coastal areas of East China and South China, the supply of precast concrete piles exceeded demand, continuing the market situation in short supply in the second half of last year. However, after the second quarter, due to the slowdown in real estate investment, the multi-point distribution of the domestic epidemic, flood conditions and natural disasters, raw and auxiliary materials price increases, power rationing, energy consumption "double control" and other multiple factors superimposed, the market demand for precast concrete piles decreased, the production and operation of enterprises were restricted, and the growth of precast concrete pile production continued to decline.
The precast concrete component industry continues the policy promotion introduced by the state to promote the development of prefabricated buildings in previous years, and there has been a situation in which supply exceeds demand. In 2021, the main focus is on the high-quality construction of prefabricated buildings, building industrialization and steel structure construction, etc., the construction of engineering projects in the first half of the year is mainly stable; in the second half of the year, the market price of raw materials continues to rise and remains high, and there are problems such as capital turnover difficulties, rising accounts receivable, and delayed construction periods of major projects, resulting in the production and operation of enterprises, quality improvement and efficiency. In 2021, the overall scale of prefabricated buildings will be the same as in 2020, maintaining between 600-660 million square meters, accounting for about 20%-22% of the new construction area. In terms of regional large-scale development, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other places still rank at the forefront of the country, but the proportion of localities has not increased significantly compared with 2020.
2. The economic growth rate of the industry tends to slow down, and the increase in income does not increase profits, and the economic benefits are the first negative growth
In 2021, the main business income of concrete and cement products industrial enterprises above designated size accumulated 2,099.685 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2% over the same period of the previous year, the growth rate was 13.7 percentage points slower than the first half of the year, and 12.4 percentage points slower than the same period in 2019; the total profit was 85.358 billion yuan, down 6.42% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 15.23 percentage points slower than the first half of the year and 31.52 percentage points slower than the same period in 2019 (see Figure 2). Cumulative changes in the main economic indicators of the industry in 2021).
Figure 2 The cumulative changes of the main economic indicators of the industry in 2021
In 2021, the trend of economic revenue and profit of the industry coincides with the production of the industry, and it is a high-open-low trend. The main business income of the whole year maintained growth, but the growth rate slowed down month by month; the total profit of the industry was the first negative annual profit growth since the Tenth Five-Year Plan. From January to December, the sales profit margin of concrete and cement products above designated size was 4.07%, a decrease of 0.68 percentage points over the same period last year. At the end of the year, the total number of loss-making enterprises was 17.08%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and the annual cumulative losses of loss-making enterprises increased by 61.90% over the same period last year. The growth of main business income and total profit showed a scissor difference, and the annual economic income of the industry did not increase profits.
3. The proportion of accounts receivable has risen, the turnover rate has declined, and the operational risks of enterprises have increased
In recent years, the proportion of accounts receivable in the industry has increased year by year, the turnover rate has decreased year by year, and the capital pressure has increased year by year; the net accounts receivable at the end of the industry in 2021 will be 911.993 billion yuan, an increase of 22.43% over the same period last year; the turnover rate of accounts receivable is 2.5 times, and the capital turnover and payment collection pressure have reached the peak in recent years, indicating that the operating risks of industry enterprises are increasing (see Figure 3 The proportion of industry accounts receivable in 2018-2021, Figure 4 The turnover rate of industry accounts receivable in 2018-2021).
Figure 3 The proportion of accounts receivable in the industry from 2018 to 2021
Figure 4 The turnover rate of accounts receivable in the industry from 2018 to 2021
According to the association's monitoring of key enterprises in key industries in 2020, the accounts receivable of PCCP enterprises accounted for 55.2%; followed by the accounts receivable of precast concrete components for housing construction enterprises accounted for 50.6%, and the accounts receivable of ready-mixed concrete enterprises accounted for 42.2%; the accounts receivable of concrete pole enterprises accounted for 25%; and the accounts receivable of precast concrete pile enterprises accounted for the lowest proportion, only 10.9%.
4. The long-term growth trend of the industry's economic operation may change
For a long time, the growth trend of economic income and profit in the industry has been highly correlated with the country's macroeconomic development. Since the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", its trend changes have gone through two stages (see Figure 5 Changes in Economic Revenue growth and profit growth in the industry from 2012 to 2021, and Figure 6 GDP growth in mainland China from 2012 to 2021).
Figure 5 Changes in the growth of economic income and profit in the industry from 2012 to 2021
Figure 6 GDP growth in mainland China from 2012 to 2021
(1) 2012-2015: At this stage, the industry's main business income and total profit showed synchronous low-speed growth, and the profit growth rate was generally lower than the growth rate of main business income.
(2) 2016-2020: At this stage, the economic income growth and profit growth of the industry have shown a downward trend, but the profit growth rate has generally experienced a trend that is lower than the growth rate of main business income in the first two years and higher than the growth rate of main business income in the last three years.
In 2012-2021, there were several low-point years for industry economic growth and its influencing factors:
(1) In 2012, the global economic downturn was adjusted, the mainland's economic growth rate fell to less than 7% for the first time, and the kinetic energy conversion experienced a difficult transformation from relying on investment and external demand to expanding consumption and domestic demand.
In 2012, the concrete and cement products industry achieved profit growth, and economic benefits continued to improve, but the growth rate fell sharply, falling below double digits for the first time in the first half of the year. 2012 was the lowest level of profit growth in the same period since the 2008 financial crisis.
(2) In 2016, the mainland economy entered a new normal, the implementation of the "five major tasks" of capacity reduction, inventory reduction, deleveraging, cost reduction, and short board making up for shortcomings, the national economy slowed down and stabilized, stabilized and improved, the annual GDP maintained a medium-high growth rate of 6.7%, and the industry operation showed a low-speed and stable growth trend in 2016. The industry achieved a main business income of 1,190.51 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year; the concrete and cement products industry achieved a total profit of 65.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year, and a growth rate of 1.2% year-on-year.
(3) From 2020 to 2021, the new crown epidemic and the unprecedented major changes in a century (complex and severe international and domestic environment), global political and economic uncertainties are highlighted, the underlying logic of the mainland's social and economic development has changed dramatically, and the economic development trend of the industry has changed accordingly.
In 2020, under the policy of the state to coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and ensure economic and social development, all regions and departments have done a solid job in the "six stability" work, fully implemented the "six guarantees" task, achieved stable economic operation, effectively prevented and controlled the epidemic while achieving an orderly resumption of work and production, ensured that the operation of the industry returned to normal, and the main business income of the concrete and cement products industry above designated size was 1.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% over the same period of the previous year; the total profit of the concrete and cement products industry above designated size was accumulated 87.333 billion yuan, an increase of 6.67% over the same period last year.
In 2021, the world political and economic pattern will intensify its evolution and reconstruction, and the underlying logic of global economic growth will be subverted, while the slowdown in economic growth is an inevitable long-term trend due to the huge volume of China's economy, the emergence of the inflection point of the demographic dividend, the limited carrying capacity of resources and the environment, and the complex and changeable impact of the international environment. In order to cope with the great changes at home and abroad, the mainland is focusing on building a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the international and domestic dual cycles promoting each other, promoting green and high-quality development around the "double carbon" goal, and accelerating the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" development strategies such as "science and technology power", "manufacturing power", "transportation power" and "regional coordinated development".
In 2021, the total economic volume of the concrete and cement products industry will further increase but the trend will slow down significantly, which is the lower growth in recent years (excluding 2020); the superimposed new crown epidemic in the industrial upgrading and development has been distributed in many places, the global commodity price increase has led to a sharp increase in the price of upstream raw and auxiliary materials, and the energy consumption policy constraints (energy consumption dual control) have a greater impact on the production and operation of enterprises, which greatly squeezes the profit margins of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry. After experiencing a long period of increase in income and profit increase, the economic operation of the industry will appear for the first time in 2021. This trend change will make the industry economic growth face severe challenges, industry enterprises should actively face, hard work, in accordance with the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's instructions, "accurate identification of changes, scientific response, take the initiative to seek changes." ”
5. The price of the product increased slightly, not as much as the cost increase
In 2021, the annual average price of national commodity concrete (C30) was 433.5 yuan / cubic meter, slightly higher than the average price of the previous year by 2.2 yuan / cubic meter (see Figure 7 The annual average price trend of national commodity concrete (C30) in 2019-2021); the price data of key products in key industries monitored by the association also showed that it was slightly higher than the price level of the previous year: For example, the survey data of 19 key enterprises in the concrete pole industry showed that in 2021 (190*). The average selling price of 12m (M-class) concrete poles is 2698 yuan / root, an increase of 12.3% over the previous year; the survey data of 23 key enterprises in the housing construction industry shows that the average selling price of concrete prefabricated components of housing construction in 2021 is 2923.3 yuan / square meter, an increase of 3.54% over the previous year.
Figure 7 Annual average price trend of commodity concrete (C30) in China from 2019 to 2021 (unit: yuan/ cubic meter)
In 2021, the annual average price of commodity concrete (C30) in 36 key cities across the country monitored by the association was 432.4 yuan / cubic meter, which was slightly lower than the annual average price of 0.9 yuan / cubic meter of commodity concrete in the country.
The association monitoring data shows that the average price of concrete (C30) in the whole year of 2021 shows a trend of low before and high (see Figure 8 The average price trend of concrete (C30) monitored by the association in 36 key cities in 2021). In the first three quarters, the price change of commercial mixture was relatively flat, showing a slight downward trend. Since September, the average price of concrete in key monitored cities across the country has started from about 410 yuan, and by mid-November, it has reached a high of about 470 yuan in the whole year, an increase of nearly 15%. The reason for this rapid price rise, on the one hand, is because the global commodities such as coal and other prices continue to rise in 2021, causing the prices of raw and auxiliary materials such as cement to soar, and to the middle and lower reaches of concrete, and in the context of the domestic "energy consumption double control", the power curtailment and production restriction measures that began throughout the country in early September led to a sharp decline in output, and the supply exceeded demand; on the other hand, because the traditional construction-related industries "Golden Nine Silver Ten" were in the third quarter, construction and production activities in various places were more active and demand was strong. Since the middle of November, the price of concrete has begun to enter a new round of decline, because since the beginning of winter, most areas in the north have cold weather and reduced demand, so many enterprises have entered the winter break period and have stopped work and production.
Figure 8 The association monitored the average price trend of concrete (C30) in 36 key cities in 2021
From a sub-regional point of view (see Figure 9 2021, the association monitors the average price trend of concrete (C30) in the regions where 36 key cities are located), the annual trend of the 7 major regions in the country is quite different between the north and the south before April, and the trend is relatively close after April, and the average price in South China is always at a high level, followed by East China. Prices in central, southwest, northwest and north China are relatively stable throughout the year, while the average price in northeast China fluctuates greatly throughout the year. As can be seen from the figure, affected by economic development, the mixed prices of most cities in the south are always higher than in the north.
Figure 9 Average price trend of concrete (C30) monitored by the association in 36 key cities in 2021 (unit: yuan / cubic meter)
By city (see Figure 10 The average price of concrete (C30) in 36 key cities monitored by the association in 2021, Table 2 The average price of commodity concrete in key cities at the end of 2021 and the comparison with the beginning of the year), among the 36 cities monitored by the association, 15 of the top 20 cities with the highest prices are southern cities, and the city with the highest price in the north is Xiong'an New District, and Beijing ranks 20th. Among the top 10 cities with the highest prices, all are southern cities. Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Shanghai are among the top three cities with the highest average prices in 2021, and throughout the year, Shenzhen, the highest price and the lowest Hohhot, have a price difference of 315 yuan, a proportion of up to 113%. It can be seen that the price of concrete in the north and south of the continent varies greatly.
Figure 10 The association monitored the average price of concrete (C30) in 36 key cities in 2021
According to the monitoring data of the association, the average price of commodity concrete in the country at the end of 2021 was 466 yuan / cubic meter (C30), an increase of 31 yuan / cubic meter compared with the beginning of the year, and the average price of the year-end market in the capital cities and municipalities directly under the central government compared with the price at the beginning of the year is as follows:
Table 2 Average price of commodity concrete in key cities at the end of 2021 and comparison with the beginning of the year (unit: yuan/cubic meter)
(3) The main problems facing the economic operation of the industry
In 2021, the mainland's macro economy will face the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weak expectations; the recurrence of the new crown epidemic, the global economic recovery has added variables; and the superposition of multiple complex factors such as geopolitics and industrial chain restructuring. Affected by this large environment, the economic operation of the industry faces the following outstanding problems:
First, the price of energy and raw materials has risen sharply (cement prices soared in September, see Figure 11 2021 cement price trend, Figure 12 2021 sand and gravel, aggregate price trend). And the effective supply of energy and raw materials is insufficient (the shortage of sand and gravel, the problem of supply assurance is prominent; but the price operation is relatively stable, see Figure 12 The price trend of sand and gravel and aggregate in 2021), resulting in a sharp increase in the production and operating costs of the industry and the problem of raw material supply.
According to the analysis of the Cement Association, the cement industry has experienced two sudden changes in 2021, and the cement market has fluctuated greatly. In the first quarter, forced by the pressure of market competition, cement prices first suppressed and then rose, in mid-May cement prices ushered in the first "rush to fall", the cement industry as a whole experienced more than three months after a long off-season, in early September in the "energy consumption double control", coal prices soared, electricity prices rose in the background, the cement industry ushered in the second peak, cement prices in the short term quickly rushed to the highest level in history, but at this time the cement industry supply and demand are weak. In the fourth quarter, as the price of raw materials such as thermal coal gradually returned to normal levels, cement prices began to accelerate their decline, but the overall level was still higher than the same period in 2020.
Figure 11 Cement price trend in 2019-2021 (unit: yuan/ton)
Figure 12 Price trend of sand, gravel and aggregate in 2021 (unit: yuan/ ton)
Second, the demand side is weak. Effective demand is insufficient (increased real estate regulation, declining investment, cold market sales, declining infrastructure growth), delayed or insufficient start of construction, and reduced production orders (see Figure 13: Various investment growth in mainland China from 2016 to 2021).
Figure 13 Growth of investment in mainland China from 2016 to 2021 (unit: %)
In 2021, the growth rate of investment in the mainland will decline collectively, and infrastructure and real estate investment will decline the fastest; only the growth rate of manufacturing investment will maintain growth.
In 2021, real estate investment and sales fell for ten consecutive months, the golden nine silver ten showed deficiencies, in September and October real estate sales area and sales amount fell by 21.7% and 22.6% year-on-year, respectively, bringing about the tension of the developer's capital chain, but also brought a large number of local land auctions; at the same time, the annual real estate housing new construction area fell by 11.4%. Among them, the area of new residential starts fell by 10.9%, which means that real estate investment will continue to decline in the future.
In 2021, the investment in the manufacturing industry will rebound significantly, which is conducive to promoting the technological upgrading and transformation of enterprises and the sustainable development of the industry. In 2020, the growth of manufacturing investment was -2.2%, and the added value increased by 3.4%, which was 0.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of industrial added value above the overall scale; in 2021, the growth rate of manufacturing investment was 13.5%, and the added value increased by 9.8%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the overall industrial added value growth rate.
The third is the pressure on the supply side. "Double carbon", environmental protection policies increased, financial credit policies tightened, environmental protection equipment transformation and updating, capital pressure increased significantly, industry enterprises production and operating costs increased significantly.
On September 11, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Plan for Improving the Dual Control System of Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Amount" (No. 1310 [2021] of the National Development and Reform Commission), and the implementation of dual control of energy consumption intensity and total amount (hereinafter referred to as the dual control of energy consumption) is an important institutional arrangement for implementing the requirements of ecological civilization construction, promoting energy conservation and consumption reduction, and promoting high-quality development. In the implementation of policies, some regions have included ready-mixed concrete enterprises and concrete products enterprises in the list of high energy consumption and high emissions, which has also affected the production and operation of enterprises to a certain extent.
In summary, the production and operation of industry enterprises have become more and more difficult, production costs have continued to increase, the economic growth momentum of the industry has slowed down, and economic benefits have declined significantly.
Second, the outlook for the economic operation of the industry in 2022
(1) Macro environment and policies
1． The Central Economic Work Conference set the policy tone of "steady words and steady progress"
From December 8 to 10, 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. This is the "wind vane" for judging the economic situation in 2021 and setting the tone for macro policies in 2022, and the meeting clearly put forward that "steady words are the head, steady progress is sought", stable growth has been elevated to a new height, and "stable growth and creating new growth points" will become the main line of policy in 2022.
The central economic work conference demanded that all localities and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability in all aspects, and put the policy force in the forefront appropriately: It is necessary to ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and speed up the progress of expenditure. Implement new tax and fee reduction policies, strengthen support for small and medium-sized enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, manufacturing, risk mitigation, etc., and moderately advance infrastructure investment.
2. The two ministries and commissions jointly issued policy measures to revitalize the operation of the industrial economy
On December 14, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Implementation Plan for Cheering up the Operation of the Industrial Economy and Promoting the High-quality Development of Industry (hereinafter referred to as the Notice). The "Notice" requires that we do a good job in pre-adjustment and cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies, accurately open up the blockage points of the industrial chain supply chain, tap the potential of market demand, strengthen policy support, optimize the development environment, maintain good growth expectations, stimulate the vitality of market players, cheer up the operation of the industrial economy, and promote high-quality industrial development.
The circular proposes a total of 16 measures in four aspects to revitalize the operation of the industrial economy, clearly regard industrial economic growth as the focus of stabilizing national economic growth, moderately advance infrastructure investment, and vigorously promote the technological transformation of enterprises as the endogenous driving force for enhanced development, and enhance the confidence of various industries in future development.
Among them: the content closely related to the economic operation of the industry is summarized as follows:
(1) Open up the blockage point card point to ensure the smooth circulation of the industrial economy. Including solidly promoting energy security and supply, doing a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of bulk raw materials, and maintaining the smooth supply chain of key industrial chains.
(2) Tap the demand potential and expand the market space of the industrial economy. Two measures have a greater impact on the operation of the industry:
The first is to promote the implementation of major projects, accelerate the implementation of major projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan", major regional strategic planning and major projects with clear annual work arrangements, promote qualified major projects to start construction, start construction as soon as possible, accelerate the construction progress of projects under construction, and strive to complete and put into operation as soon as possible. In the field of 5G, Gigabit optical network and other fields to lay out a number of new infrastructure projects. Start the construction of the integrated big data center hub node and the improvement of the basic network of small and medium-sized cities in the central and western regions as soon as possible. Give play to the role of major national and local foreign-funded projects, and accelerate the implementation of major foreign-funded projects in advanced manufacturing and other fields.
The second is to vigorously promote the technological transformation of enterprises. Including revising the industrial structure adjustment guidance catalogue, guiding enterprises to accelerate technological transformation and equipment renewal. Implement the industrial enterprise technological transformation investment upgrade orientation plan. Organize technological transformation in key areas such as steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, and coal power, promote the construction of intelligent manufacturing demonstration factories, implement the transformation of production lines and industrial mother machines, make up for key technical shortcomings, and improve the quality of product supply. Accelerate the construction and popularization of the industrial Internet, and promote the digital transformation of traditional industrial enterprises relying on the industrial Internet. Carry out quality and technical assistance "roving consultation", encourage enterprises to establish quality traceability mechanisms, and effectively implement the main responsibility of enterprise quality.
(3) Strengthen policy support and improve industrial economic safeguard measures. Including improving the development policies of key industries, optimizing the policy system of key regions, strengthening the guidance of energy efficiency standards, and increasing financing support for manufacturing. Five measures to solve the problem of enterprise employment.
3. Move forward to stabilize investment and promote infrastructure growth
(1) The 2021 Central Economic Work Conference requires that policy efforts be appropriately advanced
On January 18, 2022, at the first press conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2022, Yuan Da, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Department of National Economy Comprehensive, said: "Moderately advance infrastructure investment, continue to promote the construction of traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, agriculture, environmental protection, logistics, etc., solidly promote the implementation of 102 major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan, and strive to expand effective investment in manufacturing." "As of now, some of the special bond quotas in 2022 have been issued to local governments in advance, and various localities are organizing issuances one after another." In addition, a considerable part of the special bonds issued in 2021 will be carried forward to 2022. Promoting the formation of these special bond funds into physical workloads as soon as possible will play an important role in supporting investment growth in the first quarter and first half of 2022.
Earlier, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said: The policy force is appropriately in the front, and the first is to strengthen infrastructure in the front. Appropriately advance infrastructure investment, support water conservancy, transportation, ecological environmental protection, agriculture and rural areas, municipal administration and new infrastructure construction. The second is to release funds in advance. Accelerate the progress of investment in the central budget and accelerate the pace of issuance of special bonds by local governments. The third is to arrange projects in advance. Adhere to the project to follow the plan, the capital elements to follow the project, as soon as possible to form a physical workload, to promote effective investment.
At the end of 2021, the Ministry of Finance has issued a new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 to all localities in advance, and will continue to focus on 9 major directions such as transportation infrastructure, energy, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, ecological environmental protection, social undertakings, logistics infrastructure such as urban and rural cold chain, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, major national strategic projects, and affordable housing projects.
(2) At the beginning of 2022, the growth of infrastructure investment ushered in a "good start", major projects provoked stable investment beams, and the basic building materials industry such as concrete and cement products ushered in a favorable situation
According to statistics, as of January 25, 2022, a total of 5,608 major projects have been started across the country, and the total investment has reached 4.2 trillion yuan. Among them, in the first week of the new year, Henan, Anhui, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Yunnan and other provinces have successively implemented major projects and started construction, involving a total investment of more than 2 trillion yuan. According to reports, there are still many major projects on the road, and the scale of investment is still increasing.
3. All departments have intensively issued the 14th Five-Year Plan to consolidate the current stable growth and medium- and long-term development goals
2022 is the year of the implementation of the national "14th Five-Year Plan", and economic work is focused on steady growth. All regions and departments have stepped up the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035", and recently the state and relevant government departments have intensively issued development plans for key industries, such as the "14th Five-Year" Raw Material Industry Development Plan, the "14th Five-Year" Water Security Guarantee Plan, the "14th Five-Year Plan" Modern Comprehensive Transportation System Development Plan, the "14th Five-Year" Digital Economy Development Plan, the "14th Five-Year" Industrial Green Development Plan, and the "14th Five-Year" Construction Industry Development Plan. Wait a minute. Construction, water conservancy, transportation and other industries as an important infrastructure field, with strong social benefits, large investment absorption, long industrial chain and other characteristics, the release of its planning for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period infrastructure construction to provide a guarantee, for the steady economic growth escort, but also for the sustainable development of concrete and cement products, service infrastructure construction to provide development space.
(2) The "14th Five-Year Plan" Development Guidelines for the Concrete and Cement Products Industry promote the construction of a new development pattern for the industry to achieve high-quality development
On December 28, 2021, the China Association of Concrete and Cement Products issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" Development Guidelines for the Concrete and Cement Products Industry (hereinafter referred to as the "Industry Development Guidelines").
The "Industry Development Guide" summarizes the achievements and main problems in the development of China's concrete and cement products industry since the "13th Five-Year Plan"; explains the situation and opportunities faced by the industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan", and the "Industry Development Guide" points out that in the new development pattern, the state implements the strategy of scientific and technological power, the strategy of manufacturing power, the strategy of transportation power, the strategy of regional coordination, and the construction of a huge infrastructure system, transportation system construction, metropolitan area, urban agglomeration construction, etc. marked by "two new and one heavy". It has brought new and huge market demand to the concrete and cement products industry, and also put forward higher requirements for the green, low-carbon, quality, performance, function and guarantee capacity of concrete and cement products. A new round of scientific and technological revolution and business model innovation represented by 5G, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, new energy, digital economy, sharing economy, etc., have provided technical support and development environment for the transformation and upgrading of the concrete and cement products industry and the development of high-end manufacturing.
The "Industry Development Guide" will guide the industry to take technological innovation as the premise, take the major national needs and market development needs as the guide, and promote the industry to achieve high-quality development with scientific and technological innovation and industrial development model change. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, "strengthening basic scientific research and creating commanding heights of technological innovation" was taken as the first priority, and 11 key directions of basic scientific research, 15 key research and development directions of process technology and equipment, 19 new materials, new technologies, new products, and new scene innovations, 5 key areas of green and low-carbon concrete technology innovation, and 6 key projects of informatization and intelligence were proposed.
The "Industry Development Guide" puts forward the overall ideas, development goals, implementation paths and key tasks for the green, low-carbon and high-quality development of the concrete and cement products industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, which is not only the top-level design to promote the development of the industry, but also the specific measures to implement the development goals of the industry.
(3) Forecast of the economic operation of the industry in 2022
Soaring commodity prices, dual control of energy consumption, power rationing, sand and gravel supply cuts, the new crown epidemic... In 2021, the overall economic performance of the concrete and cement products industry is not optimistic. The scissors difference between the industry's main business income and total profits, the economic benefits for the first time showed negative growth, and it was difficult for enterprises to increase revenue and profits; the quality of the industry's economic operation was facing serious challenges.
Entering 2022, under the background of "stable economy and steady growth", the infrastructure construction is about to start, and the market is expected to gradually recover. It is expected that the economic operation of the concrete and cement products industry will generally show a trend of low opening and high going throughout the year, while the production and operation pressure state of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry will not change in the short term.
1. Market demand remained weak in the first quarter. The northern region to meet the Winter Olympics and winter heating stage, more than 70% of enterprises in non-epidemic areas into the suspension of construction leave mode, the overall industry market demand will start in the second quarter, although the market demand in the southern region before the Spring Festival will be slightly improved, but the national demand for concrete is still less than the same period last year.
2. Upstream raw material prices remain high. The epidemic prevention and control situation is still very complicated, there are problems in the production and transportation of building materials in related areas, and there are difficulties in supply; concrete enterprises are facing the impact of the staggered peak production of cement enterprises in autumn and winter, the dual control of energy consumption and the elimination of backward production capacity, and the production and operation in some areas are still facing difficulties.
3. Green, low-carbon and high-quality development force enterprises to accelerate the comprehensive development of green production, informatization, solid waste utilization and industrial chain extension, and related technologies, standards and equipment will accelerate the formulation and research and development.
On October 26, 2021, the State Council issued the Carbon Peak Action Plan by 2030 (hereinafter referred to as the Action Plan). In the "Promoting carbon peaking in the building materials industry" chapter of the Action Plan, the requirements for "strengthening the research and development and application of low-carbon building materials such as new cementitious materials, low-carbon concrete, and wood and bamboo building materials" have aroused heated discussions in the whole industry. The concept of "low-carbon concrete" appeared for the first time in the blockbuster document issued by the State Council, which means that "low-carbon concrete" will become an important engine and promoter of the transformation and upgrading of the industry in the historic process of the national "double carbon" promotion, and become an important connotation of the high-quality development of the industry.
In summary, in 2022 and during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, around the "double carbon" goal, the concrete and cement products industry will accelerate the transformation and upgrading, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern; the economic operation of the industry will be guided by the major national needs, market development needs, scientific and technological innovation and industrial development model changes to gradually establish a new cyclical trend, and gradually achieve high-quality economic operation and economic growth with green and low-carbon, ecological protection, environmental protection and waste, emergency rescue and other important social security functions as the connotation.