As the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, so does the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies against Russia. The European Union announced a freeze on all Russian assets in Europe, and the United States announced sanctions against Russian banks for up to $1 trillion in assets.
Of course, it would be a mistake to regard the Russo-Ukrainian War as a political topic in a one-sided manner. This local war can be described as a shadow of the global automobile industry and the related intelligent industry. Even if the vehicle company and parts suppliers are as far away as the United States, Europe, China and other Asia, they cannot escape the shock of the war.
After all, at a time when the automotive industry is highly globalized, the impact of Economic Sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia will soon spread to the global manufacturing industry. We need to be clear about what the risks are and where we might go.
(1) Under resource control, automobiles or price increases
The biggest impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the global auto industry is naturally oil. After all, both Russia and Ukraine are exporters of resources, especially Russia.
The data shows that Russia supplies about 30% of Europe's oil and 35% of natural gas, and the conflict has the potential to cause oil and gas prices to soar by 50-150%, and if oil prices rise from $90 to $175 and gas prices soar to $250, the consequences are self-evident.
On the 20th before the start of the war, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 210 yuan and 200 yuan per ton respectively. It has directly affected the daily life of domestic car users, and it is also the most obvious change we can feel.
Second, Russia is also the world's largest supplier of a variety of key metal materials, including precious metals such as palladium and nickel. These metal elements are precisely the necessities of the automotive industry in various countries. At present, the nickel element used in lithium-ion batteries of new energy vehicles, Russia is an important supplier country in the world. In particular, the catalytic exhaust purifier used to purify automobile exhaust requires the use of precious palladium, and Russia's supply accounts for more than 40% of the world's total. Whether it is a gasoline car or a diesel car, it needs an exhaust gas purification treatment system. The aluminium needed for automobiles, construction, machinery and packaging, Russia provides a quarter of the world's.
According to the data, Russia accounts for a staggering proportion of global metal resource exports: 49% of nickel, 42% of palladium, 26% of aluminum, 13% of platinum, 7% of steel and 4% of copper. Ukraine is not weak in palladium exports, bearing 35 percent of U.S. palladium supplies. It is clear that if Russia and Ukraine cut off supplies, it will put huge upward pressure on raw material prices.
Today, the price of palladium has jumped from $1,750 in early 2022 to more than $2,400. Palladium prices have risen so sharply, and the price of cars has risen naturally. According to calculations, the cost of each car will increase by $150, while SUVs, pickups and sports cars with larger displacement will increase by $200. Converted into RMB, the cost or price of each car will be about 1,000 yuan higher than the original.
Oil prices and palladium have hit fuel vehicles hard in the war, so what will happen to new energy vehicles? The answer, of course, is that it is difficult to be alone.
Since the supply of nickel metal is also limited, the battery innovation of new energy vehicles is definitely going to be frustrated.
In the current lithium-ion battery, although low nickel and low cobalt is a trend, ternary lithium batteries and even nickel-free cobalt-free batteries have become the direction of efforts of many power battery suppliers such as the Ningde era. After all, nickel plays a role in increasing the energy density of the volume, and cobalt plays the role of supporting the framework, which is difficult to replace in a short period of time. Once Russia's nickel metal supply is also cut off and the supply of power batteries is down, then the high growth trend of new energy vehicles will inevitably be dragged down.
In addition, memory chip manufacturers are no less worried than automakers. The Russo-Ukrainian war threatened to disrupt the supply of krypton, krypton and xenon, inert gas elements necessary for lasers used in chip production.
According to the data, Ukraine produces and supplies 90% of the neon in the United States. Therefore, the Russo-Ukrainian war may lead to insufficient supply of inert gases, push up the price of semiconductor wafers, and exacerbate chip shortages. This will also directly lead to the car companies more "lack of cores", so as to reduce the intelligent process.
So it is foreseeable that this local war has affected all aspects of the automobile industry and has also increased the cost of our daily use of cars.
(2) Opportunities for Chinese car companies
Under the complicated situation, Whether Chinese car companies that are committed to breaking ground overseas will be affected is believed to be the most concerned by many Chinese people.
In the eyes of Kung Fu Cars, there are opportunities, but the challenges are also great.
In recent years, Chinese car companies have become booming in "going out" to expand overseas markets, of which Russia has become the TOP3 of China's auto export market.
The Chinese car companies with the highest sales in Russia in 2021 are Great Wall and Chery, which sold 39,000 and 37,000 units respectively, and even Chery Xingtu sold nearly 4,000 vehicles. In third place was Geely, with sales of 25,000 units. Changan, FAW, GAC and so on have also achieved good results.
Throughout 2021, the total sales of Chinese car companies in Russia crossed the mark of 100,000 units for the first time, up 102.3% year-on-year to 115,700 units.
Since the beginning of this year, Chinese car companies have also "riveted" in the Russian market, such as Haval will bring F7/7X and big dogs; Chery will introduce Tiggo 4 Pro and the first global model OMODA 5 this year; Geely will release the first mid-size SUV Xingyue L and a new generation of Altas in Russia; the second generation of Changan CS55 Plus will also be listed in Russia this year.
From the perspective of the general environment, Russia's sanctions will have a significant impact on car companies in Europe, the United States and Japan. The three largest car companies in Russia, Renault, Volkswagen and Stellantis, are paying close attention to the situation, and the worst outcome is a repeat of the history of the withdrawal of the Iranian market that year. If the European manufacturers really withdraw, it will also indirectly help Chinese car companies to go further in the Russian market.
However, there are two sides to the coin. After all, if the Russian economy is seriously affected by sanctions, consumers' purchasing power and confidence will be frustrated, which is by no means a good thing for Chinese car companies.
(3) Kung Fu shooting
Although it is a local war, the War between Russia and Ukraine has invisibly affected our lives, and the Chinese automotive industry and consumers cannot stay out of the matter.
How to grasp their own certainty in a complex situation will be a big test for car companies.