Source: Visual China
Author 丨 Zhang Rui
Edit | Kang Xiao
Produced | Shenzhen Network Tencent News Xiaoman Studio
"The shells fell on my A-share account, fighting felt like it cost me money", "The biggest injury from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was my position"... With the continuous fermentation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, many shareholders have ridiculed the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the stock market on social platforms.
At 6 a.m. Moscow time on February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a televised speech announcing special military action to protect Donbass. Affected by the deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the Russian RTS index opened down nearly 16%. The Moscow Stock Exchange subsequently issued a news suspension of trading.
At 10:00 a.m. Moscow time on February 24, the Moscow Stock Exchange resumed market trading, and the Russian RTS index plunged sharply, with the largest decline reaching 49.31%. Since then, the decline in the RTS index has narrowed as market tensions have eased slightly, and by the close, the Russian RTS index has fallen by 38.30%.
Not only the Russian stock market, but also the global stock market has been shaken by the continuous fermentation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. However, unlike the Asia-Pacific stock index and the European stock market, which closed low across the board, on February 24, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened low and went high, collectively rising. From the perspective of individual stocks, Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Intel and other well-known American technology stocks and chip stocks rebounded after the pre-market decline, generally rising sharply.
Asia-Pacific stock indexes and European stocks closed lower across the board
The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on capital markets was first reflected in the Asia-Pacific market. As of the close of the 24th, the Asia-Pacific stock market closed down across the board. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.7% and 2.2% respectively, and the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 3.21% and 4.33% respectively.
Affected by the decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index, well-known domestic technology Internet companies are estimated to have fallen in response. Among the 8 technology Internet companies counted by the author, Alibaba-SW is estimated to have the largest decline, closing at HK$104.9 per share on the 24th, a decline of 6.67% on the day.
Other stock indexes in the Asia-Pacific market are also in a state of decline. By the close of the day, the Nikkei 225 was down 1.81 percent, the Korea Composite was down 2.56 percent, the Vietnam index was 1.15 percent, the FTSE Malaysia was down 0.77 percent, and the FTSE Singapore Straits index was down 3.49 percent.
European stocks also fell across the board, with russia's RTS down 38.30%, Britain's FTSE 100 down 3.88%, Germany's DAX30 down 3.96%, and France's CAC40 down 3.83%.
Unlike the Asia-Pacific stock index and the European stock market, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened low and went high, and American star technology stocks such as Tesla and Apple fell before the market, but after the official opening, they walked out of the rising curve of the Jedi rebound.
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened low and went high Tesla, Apple and other technology stocks led the gains
On February 24, EASTERN TIME, US President Biden once again reiterated that he would not send troops to Ukraine, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened low and went high, collectively rose, as of the close, the Dow reported 33223.83 points, up 0.28%; the Nasdaq reported 13473.59 points, up 3.34%; the S&P 500 index reported 4288.70 points, up 1.49%.
From the perspective of individual stocks, Tesla, Apple and other American star technology stocks fell before the market and rebounded after the official opening.
Before market hours, Tesla shares fell more than 8%, Apple fell more than 3%, and NVIDIA fell more than 7%. As of the close of the day, Tesla shares were up 4.81%, Apple was up 1.67%, Microsoft was up 5.11%, Amazon was up 4.51%, Meta (formerly Facebook) was up 4.61%, Google was up 4%, Nvidia was up 6.08%, and Netflix was up 6.14%.
In addition to the sharp rise in star technology stocks, chip stock prices also rebounded strongly. As of the close, NVIDIA shares rose 6.08%, AMD rose more than 6%, ON Semiconductor rose more than 5%, Intel rose more than 4%, and Asmail and Qualcomm rose nearly 4%.
Popular Chinese stocks are mixed Faraday Future Gains 10.13%
Among the popular Chinese stocks, the stock prices of different companies have fluctuated. The author counts the rise and fall of the stock prices of 12 well-known Chinese stocks, among which the stock prices of Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Ideal Automobile fell slightly after closing on the same day (February 24, Eastern Time), and most of the stock prices of other Chinese stocks rose.
Alibaba's stock price fell on the impact of its published earnings data. On February 24, Alibaba announced its fiscal third quarter ended December last year for its fiscal third quarter of 2022. According to the data, the company's quarterly operating record was 242.58 billion yuan (US$38.066 billion), lower than the market expectation of 246.37 billion yuan, an increase of 10% year-on-year, the lowest year-on-year growth rate since its listing in the United States in 2014.
Among the Chinese stocks whose stock prices rose, Faraday Futures rose more, at 10.13%. Faraday Future's sharp rise in stock was mainly affected by the announcement of the completion of the first quasi-production vehicle of the FF 91 the day before.
At 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on February 24, Faraday Future announced the completion of the first FF 91 quasi-production car. On the same day, Bi Fukang, global CEO of FF, and Jia Yueting, founder of FF, drove the first quasi-production vehicle of FF 91 out of the factory and conducted a dynamic acceleration, braking and pile winding test at the scene.
After experiencing the performance test, Jia Yueting said: "This is crazy, it is really exciting day. Next, the most important task of FF is to continue to go all out to hand over FF 91 to users, and the dream of striving for it is getting closer and closer to us. "According to FF's plan, mass production of FF 91 will begin in the third quarter of 2022.
In the context of the turbulent situation in Russia and Ukraine, why the US stock market will rebound against the trend, some brokers said, or related to the Fed's interest rate hike expectations will ease.
Expectations of fed rate hikes may ease
In addition to the impact of the geopolitical risk of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the stock market, the pace and frequency of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will also affect the direction of global stock markets. In general, a rate hike or cut by the Fed can affect the cost of funding for the stock market. Since the risk of investing in the stock market is greater than that of bank deposits or wealth management, etc., if the bank interest rate is high enough, the money flowing into the stock market will be reduced, and vice versa.
On January 26, US time, Fed Chairman Powell officially announced that the United States would raise interest rates at the March meeting, and at the same time shrink the balance sheet and recover the US dollar on the market. As for the number of Fed rate hikes in 2022, UBS predicts that there will be 6 consecutive rate hikes in 2022, while Goldman Sachs believes that it will be 7.
Affected by the huge uncertainty brought by the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine to the global economic outlook, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to ease.
U.S. federal funds rate futures showed a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed at its March meeting drops to 16.5 percent after Russian troops enter Ukraine, up from about 30 percent on Wednesday.
The macro team of China Merchants Securities believes that due to the impact of geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations may be alleviated, but subject to the current large inflation pressure in the United States, the market still expects the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time at the March conference, but the mainstream expectation of interest rate hikes has dropped from 50BP (the expected probability as of February 22 is 25%) to 25BP (the expected probability as of February 22 is 75%).
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