In the recent video of the screen on the Internet, if Yu Chengdong is replaced by other celebrities, if Huawei is replaced by most mainstream brands, then according to the convention, the reports of the auto media should have been fried long ago.
For example, Evergrande's previous treatment is like this, for example, many new car-making forces are like this, and for example, for Toyota, the world's first car company, the action is slightly larger, and it will also be a lot of yin and yang in the field of public opinion.
Therefore, after Yu Chengdong's internal speech flowed out, a Flag of "1 year sales of more than 300,000 vehicles" and "2 years of sales far exceeded Tesla", plus what existing car companies do not do and other content. Every slot filled in the middle will theoretically put controversy on the table.
However, back to the present, why did Huawei Yu Chengdong say this, but did not trigger too many topic peaks? The relevant logic behind this is what.
The "big mouth" of the mobile phone circle, the "cannon" of the car circle
Given that the Internet has memories, the Internet takes time, and so on, Yu Chengdong's internal speech still has several questions that need to be answered. For example, who sent this video out, in order to label Huawei's momentum with some inappropriate labels, or another way to boost the volume.
For example, whether this video has undergone corresponding processing, the context is taken out of context, after all, there are too many such events in the network, and reversals and reversals are endless.
Before there is no answer to these 2 questions, we have no relevant conclusions about many of the key information that Yu Chengdong and Huawei's automobile-related business said in the video, in fact, we should not draw conclusions too early, just need to look at what is said and the discrepancy between it and the facts.
Several key points mentioned by Yu Chengdong have been transmitted several rounds in today's network, and the key information points are roughly summarized as follows:
Many Chinese car companies can't do it, brand/channel/retail/design/experience can't do it, and even the new car-making forces can't do it;
Huawei's automotive BU is strong, with 5-6,000 technicians and a research and development budget of 1 billion US dollars / year;
Huawei's automotive business will sell more than 300,000 yuan in 2022, winning Tesla and far exceeding Tesla in sales in 2023;
The annual sales volume quickly exceeded 2 million units, and then the main share of the BBA market of 300,000-500,000 yuan was grabbed.
In view of what we said at the beginning, the 2 questions were not answered, in fact, there is no need to argue point-to-point against what Yu Chengdong said, which is no different from raising the bar, but we can ask a certain amount of rhetorical questions about the above two key points in addition to the large variable of sales.
How many companies are capable of building new car manufacturers? The electronic and electrical architecture can exceed E/E and X-EEA 3.0, the new energy vehicles that have sold more than 400,000 weilai ES8 have not yet been sold, the application mileage/reputation of automatic driving technology has not exceeded the current new forces, and the traditional car companies with better service capabilities than the new forces have not yet.
6,000 people spent $1 billion on the results, where is the current presentation, and how long can the market witness?
The answers to these 2 questions can only be handed over by Huawei itself, scored by the automobile market and time, just like Huawei's development trend in the smartphone market at that time.
People who have a certain understanding of Yu Chengdong know that he was nicknamed "Yu Dazui" by netizens because he dared to say it, and his previous dare to say and dare to do it eventually made Huawei's C-end smart phone business rise rapidly, successfully fulfilled the contract, and hit a lot of faces. Of course, because of his daring to say, and the corresponding network marketing matching, we have also seen words like "navy".
But in any case, Yu Chengdong's dare to say, and then match the good products that "dare to do", the final market answer is good. In the consumer business, a few years ago, when Huawei's mobile phone business was not well known, Yu Chengdong's Flag was "surpassing Samsung and Apple in 3-5 years". Although there was a later incident in which Yu apologized for his previous remarks and was not allowed to mention the incident of surpassing Apple's mobile phone, in the end, what you and I can see is that Although Yu Chengdong's Flag was not completed, it greatly promoted the development of Huawei-related businesses and achieved at least most of the success.
In the car-related video brush screen this time, Yu Chengdong still dares to say, and the degree of boldness is more like a cannon, continuing the trend of Huawei in recent years, dare to say. That, the next link is, this time in the automotive field dare to do it.
Look at Huawei, don't just consider the policies and regulations of bicycle autonomous driving?
Yu Chengdong's bold words are in a state of no result in the current automotive market, the delivery time of the Jihu HI version of the model has jumped tickets / scale reduction, Huawei's self-built small-scale production line has been trial-produced and debugged to debug intelligent on-board, and the M5 of the Q&A has held a capacity guarantee oath meeting, all three things added up to mean that the current Huawei car BU and car manufacturer manufacturing field are not enough, the efficiency is not enough, and the mass production speed is not enough.
Therefore, because the product cannot be put into the market, the automotive industry/media/consumers cannot perceive whether the intelligent capabilities of Huawei's car BU are as powerful as they say. For example, how the perception ability of lidar is, how is Huawei's algorithm, but in fact, most people in empathy thinking are caught in a dead knot in thinking, that is, the perspective is mostly only around the expectation of the ability related to bicycle automatic driving.
In the automotive industry, in fact, there is another judgment on the current single-vehicle automatic driving capability, that is, as the pain points of autonomous driving technology are opened one by one in large and small scenarios, we can foresee the rising bottleneck of related technologies in a short period of time, and we need to enter the L4 or even L5 capabilities through V2X, low-track communication, and further refined applications of 5G.
Yu Chengdong's Flag can not represent the huawei car BU official, because the current target time of 1-2 years is too short, it is obviously necessary to review its mass production and delivery speed. The future capability of Huawei's car BU is related to intelligent driving applications above L4, and having the embedded advantage at this level is the capital that can win foreign brands in the next step.
After all, the core of the future development of the automotive industry is deeply tied to policy. In the course of 130 years, the Musketee Act's emission restrictions have directly made the U.S. auto industry turn around, and Japanese cars have quickly taken up; the 280 horsepower act has directly made the research and development of Japanese cars on performance turn to U-turns; the current Euro 7 emissions have directly made almost all European car companies abandon the research and development of next-generation internal combustion engine technology and fully switch to electrification.
The current intelligentization of automobiles is actually facing the same situation as emissions, that is, there is no relevant clear policy landing supervision. At present, the regulation of smart cars in Europe is relatively fast, but more only in the strict control of data privacy, and the regulations on automatic driving are only in the initial testing stage (L3 level autonomous vehicles will be allowed on the road in 2022).
In short, with the further development of smart cars around the world, it is obvious that the relevant regulations will be gradually improved and introduced. The topic at that time will be who can comply with the current related automotive technology, which is why the current lidar as a perception redundancy has developed rapidly, because the vast majority of companies judge that the combination of millimeter-wave radar + camera is not safe enough.
Huawei has advantages in this field. From the perspective of the relevant policies of the mainland, smart cities are an important development route in the future, and in Huawei's internal business context, in fact, smart car BU is subordinate to the smart city strategy. In other words, in the future focus of smart cities, Huawei has participated in all standards work, and has developed more than 30 standards according to public materials.
This means that Huawei understands and touches earlier than most enterprises how smart cars will match smart cities in the future, and in which direction smart car technology will develop, so as to take the lead in completing the landing and rushing through its own technical reserves.
Compared with the goal mentioned by Yu Chengdong in the video, the future trend is actually more important. Because, taking the lead in grasping the future, completing the technology rush, and forming a related moat are obviously at a higher level than simply pursuing sales figures and market share.
Write at the end:
Therefore, it is not necessary to have too many self-views on the current video screen, everything is full of variables, although the Internet has a memory, but the face does not actually mean too much. Musk's frequent punches in the face do not affect his position as the world's richest man, nor does it affect Tesla's trillion-dollar market value, nor does it affect its mastery of algorithms, electrical and electronic architecture, technological innovation and other moats.
Huawei, or other leading Chinese companies, need to be done synchronously, including the immediate market competition, and more importantly, the embedding, thinking and landing of forward-looking core technologies.