Sudden bearishness! A-shares dived, Hong Kong stocks fell by more than 2%, and God predicted that the bus card point limit was limited

Look at finance

2024-05-21 16:23Posted on the official account of Guangdong Kan Finance

A-shares have only been increasing for one day, and they have shrunk sharply today, with a turnover of less than 800 billion in the two cities, which is considered to be the level of land volume this year. I feel that after the intraday dynamics of foreign capital is closed, domestic capital will not play, such a blockbuster good news last week, coupled with the large purchase of foreign capital, the transaction has not exceeded one trillion. In the past, although foreign capital smashed the market, domestic capital would also smash the market, but when foreign capital buys, domestic capital will also buy, so when foreign capital buys sharply, A-shares often rise sharply. Now it's good, foreign capital has become a black box, and foreign capital may not follow the large purchase of domestic capital, which is originally a stock game, losing the drive of foreign capital, and obviously feeling that the market ecology has become worse.

In addition, there are strange things in the past two days, yesterday there were netizens who accurately predicted the Nanjing chemical fiber sky floor, and today there were netizens who predicted the daily limit of the bus, we just saw this picture and thought it was a joke, but it turned out that the straight flush stock bar is true. And at the end of today, Nanjing Chemical Fiber Ground Plate, you must know that yesterday the Shanghai Stock Exchange has said that it will start transaction verification on Nanjing Chemical Fiber, and today it is still here to pull the Ground Ceiling, isn't this a crime against the wind, and now the tour capital is so rampant?

Let's take a look at the rest of today's news:

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index to 70 from 60; Raised the 12-month target for the CSI 300 Index from 3,900 to 4,100.

Empirical data from the past 20 years shows that after entering a technical bull market phase (i.e. rising more than 20%), there is a 60% probability that the market will continue to rise in the next 6 months, with an average maximum return of 35%. However, as the rally matures, the drivers of returns have shifted from valuation expansion to earnings corrections, underscoring the importance of earnings realization to sustain the bull market.

Goldman Sachs maintains its overweight on China A-shares (+11% 12-month return) and its standard allocation to offshore China (+8%), but believes that the latter has tactical FOMO risks as the fund is more conservatively positioned to maintain its overweight to TMT at the sector level.

Non-ferrous plate pullback

Gold, silver, copper and other non-ferrous metal futures after a continuous surge, today's intraday surge fell back, A-share non-ferrous metal sector adjusted sharply, the sector fell more than 3%.

We believe that the recent surge in prices of gold, silver, copper and other non-ferrous metal futures is more driven by trading factors, including copper futures short, geopolitical games, etc., although the European and American central banks have raised interest rates for two years, but global liquidity is still quite flooded, and the flood of liquidity has supported the sharp rise in assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and global stock markets.

We think the fundamental logic of the market's boasting is debatable: the global manufacturing PMI did enter expansion territory in the first quarter, but fell below the boom and bust line again in April; The easing of U.S. financial conditions and the rebound of inflation are in a state of repeated pulling, the Fed is more likely to maintain high interest rates for a longer time, and there is a possibility of a recession in the U.S. economy; The European economy has indeed picked up slightly, but it seems fanciful to think that after the rate cut, it will return to the pre-pandemic state, although the inflation growth rate has fallen, but the absolute price has not fallen, and now the demand has not recovered, but the price of commodities is soaring, isn't this looking for a recession?

As for the logic of gold's interest rate cuts, gold is likely to fall after the real interest rate cut, technology stocks, manufacturing recovery, and consumer stocks have all benefited from the decline in interest rates. Now all kinds of grand narratives are nothing more than the belief in the aftermath of the price surge, saying that the gold bull market is a distrust of the dollar system, and what if the US shrinks its deficit after the election.

Composite copper foil rose sharply

Today, the composite copper foil plate rose sharply, and Wanshun New Materials, British Union shares and other intraday limits. Recently, copper prices have hit new highs, and the 8.8W copper price corresponds to the price of traditional copper foil of about 5.8 yuan per square meter, which is 10% higher than the price of composite copper foil, which has caused battery factories to pay more attention to it, and it is expected to bring more project promotion catalysts in the future.

Finally, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.42%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.77%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 2.14%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.75%. The turnover of the two cities was less than 0.8 trillion yuan, and more than 4,000 companies fell.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently

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