Chris Paul out 6-8 weeks: What the Point God's absence means for the Phoenix Suns
Published: February 20, 2021 US time
Publisher: ESPN
Article by Kevin Pelton
Article translated by de Gaulle
On February 21, Beijing time, just before the start of this year's All-Star Game, the Suns officially announced a message: the team's backcourt core Chris Paul injured his right thumb in the previous game with the Clippers on February 16, and after an MRI examination, Paul's injury was diagnosed with a torn fracture of the right thumb. Affected by this injury, Paul will have to say goodbye to the field for a while, waiting for 6 to 8 weeks later, after a re-examination of the injury, to determine when he can return to the court.
From the description of the injury and the length of time Paul will be on leave, it can be seen that the Sun defender's injury is indeed not light. Although he himself insisted on playing in the All-Star game, the thick tape on the thumb of his right hand and the performance of only a symbolic 2 minutes proved that Paul would not be able to appear on the regular season for a short time.
Suffering such an injury at such a point in time is a big blow to Both Paul personally and for the Suns as a whole. After the All-Star Weekend holiday, the NBA's regular season is left with only the last 7 weeks or so of game time left. So Paul is likely to miss all the remaining games in the regular season, and whether he can catch up with the opening of the playoffs will also be marked with a question mark.
Currently, the Suns are still at the top of the Western Conference, 6.5 wins behind the Warriors behind them. With Paul likely to miss all of the regular season, can the Suns hold on to their home-court advantage in the playoffs? What kind of competitive state might Paul be in when he returned? And how will Paul's injury affect the overall situation in the West?
Let's take a look at the situation and situation that the sun may face. Since joining the Thunder in 2019, Paul's attendance has been good in recent seasons, missing only four regular-season games so far. And this season, the Suns have played 58 games in front of them, paul is more than full attendance. Therefore, how the sun will behave without Paul is a situation where the number of reference samples is very small.
It can be referred to last season's Western Conference Finals, in the first two games of the series with the Clippers, Paul was unable to appear on the court because of a confirmed infection with the new crown virus. However, in those two games, the Suns were united in their determination, and the Clippers also had the main force that could not play, so in those two games where Paul was absent, the Suns won all of them.
At the time, the Suns' bench point guard Cameron Payne played an important role. In both of the Western Conference Finals that Paul missed, Payne made his debut, combining 40 points and 18 assists in both games, filling the void paul left. So, now facing the same situation again, the Sun is definitely looking forward to Payne being able to stand up again to save the field. But the Suns' backup point guard, who sprained his wrist against the Pacers in late January, has yet to resume training, and it's unclear when he'll be back on the court. Therefore, Payne will most likely not be able to fill the gap left by Paul immediately after the All-Star end.
Dig deeper into the lineup, and the Suns' number three point guard will be Alfred Payton. At the Suns this season, Payton has played just 38 games and averaged just 11.7 minutes per game. However, considering that Payton played 63 starting point guards in the Knicks last season, it is also an option to temporarily pull him out to save the game. However, after joining the Suns this season, Payton's efficiency is not high, averaging 3.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 39.4% shooting rate per game, all falling to a new career low.
If Payton doesn't meet expectations, the Suns could also try to get Aaron Holliday, who joined recently through a trade, to top it. While Aaron Holliday is not an effective organizer, he has a threatening outside shooting ability. Since entering the league in 2018, it has maintained a career three-point shooting rate of 37.1%. Joining the Suns for three games, Holliday has accumulated 4 of 6 from outside the three-point line, hitting a number of three-point shots, and has been on par with Payton, who has played 38 games, which may become an advantage for him to beat Payton.
However, neither Payton nor Holliday, nor Payne, who subsequently returned from injury, can combine shooting threats and offensive creativity as Paul. Therefore, the offensive and organizational tasks of the Suns' backcourt have fallen more on the shoulders of Devon Booker. According to statistics, Booker's average 36-minute assist stats when he appeared with Paul this season were 4.3, but if Booker did not play with Paul, his assists per 36 minutes would increase to 5.8. But Booker paid the price by dropping his score from 27.4 to 25.5 points per 36 minutes. So in the coming period of Paul's truce, how Booker finds a better balance between the organization and the offense will be a test for him.
Paul's sudden injury caught the sun off guard. However, the full impact of the first half of the season has allowed them to establish a 6.5-game lead in the top position in the West. Considering the current overall situation in the West, especially the warriors ranked second in the West, are also facing the situation that "Chasing Dreams" Green is injured, so the difficulty of the Suns to defend their position is not very high.
According to the model of the US data website, the Warriors currently ranked second in the West and the Grizzlies in the third place in the West have a predicted number of 54 or 55 games in the regular season, and the Suns want to hold the first place in the West, just make sure that their winning number is higher than these two numbers. This is not too difficult a task for the sun.
So far, the Suns have won 48 games. Of the remaining 24 games of the season, they have nine opponents outside the top ten in the East, and six more, currently in the playoff zone. Against these opponents, even if the Suns didn't have Paul, it wouldn't be difficult for them to win most of them. And as long as they can win 7 or 8 games by the end of March, they can lock in their first place in the West before facing back-to-back games against the Warriors and Grizzlies.
For the Suns, their biggest regret may be that they can't beat their opponents' best regular season records this season. Currently, the Suns have a record of 62 wins in the regular season, which they set in 1992-93 and 2004-05. If they want to break that record, the Suns need to finish 15-9 in the remaining 24 games. Without Paul, this record is a goal for the Suns that requires the whole team to work hard to have a chance to touch.
Therefore, the current situation of the Sun is relatively loose, and the pressure on the record is not great. In this case, the most important issue for the Suns to consider and worry about may be whether Paul can be in the best condition and playoff games.
On this subject, the sun has a thankful "case" -
In January 2017, Paul, who was still playing for the Clippers at the time, suffered a ligament tear on the thumb of his left hand. For treatment, Paul had to undergo surgery. After the operation, the recovery schedule given by the doctor is also 6 to 8 weeks. However, Paul only rested for 5 and a half weeks before returning to the court. For the rest of the season, Paul continued to shoot 48 percent from the field and 43 percent from three-point range, as if he had never been injured.
Of course, Paul was injured by a non-shooter that time, and the speed of his recovery now is certainly not comparable to that of 5 years ago. But looking at Paul's injury from another angle can also be seen as an "invisible benefit." Although Paul can't play for almost 2 months, this time will also give the 36-year-old plenty of rest. The Suns made it all the way to the Finals last season, the game didn't end until late July, and after just a three-month break, Paul and the Suns' teammates started the season, which actually added a lot of extra burden to Paul's body. Despite his injury now, Paul can also allow his tired body to be fully rested and make physical reserves for the playoffs.
For the Suns, last season's finals gave the whole team a big blow, and their only goal this season was to go to the finals to "revenge". Temporarily losing Paul will add more uncertainty to their future. But as long as Paul can return on time and show the standard he deserves in the playoffs, the Suns will get extra from this accident.