On February 21, according to the report of the Southern + client, from today, the four major banks will simultaneously reduce the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou. Among them, the interest rate of the first home was reduced from the previous LPR +100BP (5.6%) to LPR +80BP (5.4%), and the LPR+120BP (5.8%) was reduced to LPR+100BP (5.6%).
According to this calculation, the same loan of 5 million yuan, 30 years, the buyer can pay 627.41 yuan less every month, 30 years can save interest of 225,800 yuan.
In fact, the central bank lowered the policy interest rate by 10BP in January, driving the 5-year LPR down by 5BP, which has reduced the cost of housing loans to a certain extent and effectively met the needs of buyers who just need it. Affected by this news, the real estate stocks in the tail end of the market vigorously pulled up and turned red.
Under the pressure of policy, housing enterprises have "lying flat"
Since the second half of 2021, there has been a rapid decline in real estate indicators.
The head of private real estate developers continues to thunder, and the investment enthusiasm of housing enterprises has dropped sharply.
The phenomenon of land auctions is increasing, and the area of new real estate starts and sales has declined.Due to concerns about the decline in house prices and the lack of confidence in residents' home purchases, it can be seen that the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans to residents in the 2021s is weakening.
In December 2021, real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, negative growth for four consecutive months, and real estate development investment in 2021 147602 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% over the previous year. In the same year, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide 179433 million square meters, an increase of only 1.9% year-on-year.
According to the agency's data, real estate directly accounts for about 12%-15% of GDP, and if you consider the upstream and downstream industrial chains, it accounts for about 34%. Therefore, if the real estate industry is not properly handled, it is very likely to have a serious impact on the national economy.
As Zhao Jian, president of the Caesar Institute of Finance, said:
It is still real estate that can cause a substantial systemic crisis in China, because it is: first, the people's livelihood industry, which is related to the residence, wealth and credit of the people; second, it is closely linked with banks, which is easy to induce bank crises; third, financial sources, land sales income and the "non-operating income" of local governments through land mortgage issuance, which have long exceeded taxes to become the main source of income, and real estate contraction can easily lead to financial crises.
The margins of real estate policy are relaxed, and positive signals continue
Therefore, we can see that since entering 2022, the signal of marginal relaxation of real estate policy has become more and more obvious.
At present, the real estate policy revolves around the task of "three stability", due to the city's policies and supply and demand.
From the supply side, the construction of affordable housing is the focus of policy.On February 8, the Central Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued a notice that loans issued by banking financial institutions to affordable rental housing projects that hold a certificate of recognition for affordable rental housing projects are not included in the management of real estate loan concentration. Banking financial institutions should increase support for affordable rental housing.
Industry insiders believe that
This means that banks have sufficient space to increase credit for affordable rental housing projects, which is conducive to enhancing the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to participate in affordable rental housing and helping enterprises participating in housing security construction to stabilize the capital.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the mainland plans to add 6.5 million sets of affordable rental housing, of which 2.4 million sets are planned to be added in 2022, which shows that under the policy tone of "housing and not speculation", affordable housing is expected to become a new growth pole in the industry.
On the financing side,The central bank lowered its policy rate by 10BP in January, driving the 5-year LPR down 5BP, reducing mortgage costs to a certain extent.
One is that banks in Guangzhou, Foshan and other places have lowered mortgage interest rates, of which Guangzhou has lowered 20BP; some banks in Heze, Chongqing, Ganzhou and other places have lowered the down payment ratio of the first home mortgage, from 30% to 20%. The two-pronged approach to reducing the cost of buying a house for home buyers is expected to help the sales side of real estate pick up.
Western Securities believes that:
Looking back at history, it can be found that the down payment ratio has always played an important role in the real estate regulation and control policy, or corresponding to the marginal relaxation of the real estate policy. From a historical point of view, in general, the reduction of the down payment ratio usually helps the sales side of commercial housing to stabilize, driving economic rebound and credit easing. If more cities join, real estate sales may stabilize.
Another is the Opinions of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on the Supervision of Pre-sale Funds for National Commercial Housing. The "Measures" clearly stipulate that "the supervision of the amount of pre-sale funds is "key quota supervision", which is approved by the urban and rural construction departments at the city and county level according to the project cost contract, etc., which can ensure the amount of funds required for the completion of the project. ”
As we all know, under the background of tightening financing policies, sluggish sales markets, and continuous peak debt repayment, the operation of housing enterprises has become a high-pressure situation, and more and more head housing enterprises have fallen into a liquidity crisis. This document will alleviate the liquidity crisis in the real estate market and avoid the spread of credit risks in the industry.
Many brokers sing well about financial real estate
For the recent investment direction of A-shares, institutional analysts are optimistic about the financial real estate sector.
CITIC Strategy believes that the policy bottom, market bottom and emotional bottom have been confirmed in turn, and it is recommended that investors closely follow the main line of "stable growth" and focus on actively laying out high-quality blue chips around the "two lows". One of the "low" directions is:
For varieties with relatively low valuations, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the release of real estate credit risk expectations.Guotai Junan believes that on the whole, under the current market's low risk appetite and economic fundamentals, the value will still be dominant, and the opportunities for growth, especially for track-type companies, still need to wait for the recovery of risk appetite. Water flows to the lower places, according to the order of steady growth, the marginal improvement of profitability, recommended: 1) Infrastructure: coal / steel / transportation / construction / chemical -
Infrastructure real estate/ Machinery and equipment; 2) Consumption: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (pigs) / home appliances / consumer services; 3) Finance: brokerages, banks.
Cinda strategy recommends over-allocation value in the first half of the year and over-allocation growth in the second half of the year.
In the middle and late stage of the economic downturn, financial real estate construction and other sectors can be attacked and retreated, and the comparative advantages brought by the stable growth policy can generally last for half a year, and can continue to be overmatched until Q2 2022.The Industrial Securities strategy is recommended
Grasp the repair of low valuations such as financial real estate, and lay out "small high-tech" at low prices.The market's expectation of policy relaxation has never been achieved overnight, but a process from "expected heating up" to "believing will be doubted" to "finally believing", quantitative change to qualitative change.
Referring to history, before the downward pressure on housing prices eased and the residential prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities turned positive month-on-month, low-valued sectors such as banks, real estate, and securities companies had a high probability of excess returns and absolute returns.Haitong Securities also believes
Short-term financial real estate is dominant, and it is expected to switch to the new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure in the future.The best window period in the first half of the year is the steady growth of the spring market, short-term financial real estate is dominant, of which the most noteworthy is the brokerage. In the future, it is expected to switch to new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure.