Lin Peng, chairman of Harmony Huiyi, recently spoke: in the second half of the year, macro uncertainty increased, choose a good company to do defensive counterattack to prepare for uncertainty, and firmly believe that value will return

Financial Associated Press (Shenzhen, reporter Zhou Xiaoya) news, with valuation or growth as the main cornerstone of investment philosophy? This is a question that every investor keeps thinking about after entering the market, and in the past two quarters, the latter seems to have a slight upper hand, and the market once saw a situation where individual stocks were more expensive and more expensive. To this end, Lin Peng, chairman and general manager of Harmony Huiyi, recently spoke out, emphasizing that good prices are a safety cushion left in response to risks.

Lin Peng said that looking forward to the second half of the year, the macro uncertainty in the market will increase, the team will maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude, through the selection of good companies, be prepared for defensive counterattack, deal with uncertainty, and firmly believe that the value of individual stocks will not be absent.

The liquidity contraction did not bring about a correction in the high valuation sector

"In the past year, the A-share market has been deadlocked in a highly differentiated range, and it is difficult to break through the high point of differentiation and it is difficult to return to the mean." Lin Peng believes that behind the differentiated market is a game of two forces: whether to invest in high-priced "high-quality products" or choose cheap "defective products".

Looking back at the market situation in the second quarter, he believes that the macro liquidity contraction that began in the second quarter did not bring about the adjustment of the high valuation plate, but the market sentiment heated up, the valuation of some boom tracks even reached a new high, and the investment yardstick of the market seems to be compressed into a single dimension of the boom trend, as long as the industry or company's boom trend is still in the upward momentum, the market can ignore the price.

"But it's common sense in the business world that any business should have a reasonable price, and even the best commodities at prices that are too outrageous will lose their meaning." In his view, a good price is not only a guarantee of investment returns, but also a safety cushion for dealing with unknown risks.

From the perspective of high valuation of the sector, Lin Peng agrees that the long-term company value reflects the company's own operating quality, and in the bottom-up stock selection framework of Harmony Huiyi, good companies are still the most important yardstick, but he also stressed that the judgment of good companies is a process of dynamic correction and needs time to be tested.

"The only constant thing in the world is change, if the short-term excessive extreme of the static industry growth rate and the competitive landscape, liquidity environment trend extrapolation, then under the extremely high valuation expectations, once a certain hypothetical condition changes, it will bring huge risk exposure, in the past quarter, such events have been starred in many early quality tracks." He said.

There are structural risks and opportunities in the market in the second half of the year

Looking forward to the second half of the year, Lin Peng said that the macro uncertainty of the market in the second half of the year will increase, maintaining a cautiously optimistic attitude, "In the macro, the pulse high point of domestic economic recovery has passed, but the overseas economy is still in recovery, and total demand is not expected to be weak." The Fed began to release expectations of contraction, but under the existing government debt and future fiscal plans, the rate and space for monetary contraction may be limited. Inflation concerns have faded, but discussions about the long-term inflationary environment remain an important topic and should remain vigilant. ”

Zhang Hongyu, deputy general manager and research director of Harmony Huiyi, said that it is expected that the third quarter will enter a pattern of economic growth rate falling month-on-month, and the overall liquidity is stable, "On the one hand, the fiscal stimulus policy in the United States is gradually advancing, although the CPI data has a stage high, but with the fiscal expansion, the overall liquidity of the market is expected to be difficult to contract; on the other hand, under the efforts of the domestic social finance growth rate in the past few months, this year's social finance growth target has basically been achieved, and the tightest liquidity margin has passed." ”

She further said that at present, the economic repair after the domestic epidemic has basically entered the end, the future economy is likely to maintain a stable growth rate, the lack of marginal kinetic energy, terminal demand is not very strong and the continuous upward trend of PPI has also inhibited some demand, it is expected that the total economic opportunity is limited, more reflected in structural characteristics.

Choose a good company and prepare for a defensive counterattack

Lin Peng further said that in the current market environment with structural risks, the company will still maintain a balanced allocation strategy, follow the principle of industry dispersion and individual stock concentration, and the overall combination construction idea is to choose a good company, prepare for a defensive counterattack, deal with uncertainty, rely on stock selection to keep the bottom line of systemic risk, and strive for steady growth and control drawdown.

"Some of the companies we hold heavily may not be 'sexy' in the industry, nor is it in line with the current market preferences, but there is a common feature: they are all good companies in their respective industries, and they have their own moats relative to their peers." The current market style gives such companies good holding prices and high enough odds to give us confidence in a longer-term dimension that we can play a defensive counterattack. He said.

Lin Peng believes that in the short term, the trend of individual stocks may have the influence of style aesthetics, but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine for corporate value, and there are countless large bull stocks in traditional industries, and the long-term investment yield of holding a company can be similar to its return on net assets. "We believe that as long as we take this as the source and select good companies, the value return will not be absent."

Zhang Hongyu also said that with the arrival of the mid-reporting season, it will concentrate on studying and selecting companies with three types of opportunities, such as strong boom tracks with sustained upward momentum, strong alphas, and industries with marginal improvements through a large amount of report information.

"We anticipate that the volatility of the market may increase, so we have further raised the criteria for stock selection and strive to allocate funds to the best companies." Based on the above criteria, Zhang Hongyu said that in the future, the company's individual stock allocation is not limited to A shares, but also has a certain allocation in Hong Kong stocks.