The US CPI continued to rise in January, the employment data returned to pre-pandemic highs, and Delta Power had degenerated to flu levels, leading to the possibility that the Fed could hold an "ad hoc rate meeting" before March to raise interest rates early, or adjust by 50 points (usually 25 points) at a time when it first raised interest rates in March – it can be said that there is no obstacle for the Fed to raise interest rates now! This is one of them.
The capital market is more afraid of "shrinking the balance sheet", Powell's several statements on the balance sheet reduction are not "clear", there is no clear time, strength, capital hates "uncertainty" the most.
The above two points are the recent decline, rise, fall of US stocks... Up, down... The reason is that I predict that if we do not hold additional "temporary interest meetings" as soon as possible and do not fully release expectations, the market will continue to "demonize" in accordance with the trend.
This is the thinking of my high-probability position SQQQ in the past 1 month.
——————————
Talk about ourselves. The situation is far more complex than in a beautiful country: low-income deflation, high-income inflation, upstream industry inflation, downstream deflation. In the vernacular, "the people began to reduce food and clothing, reduce unnecessary expenditures; high-income people continue to consume high, and the high consumption range is mainly based on price increases; the upstream of the industrial chain, such as nonferrous metals, coal, oil and steam, due to the previous release of water in the US dollar, production capacity was affected by the epidemic, and later the economic recovery led to rising demand, maintaining sustained inflation; downstream enterprises, due to the face of terminal people's consumption is closer, facing a deflationary market, it is difficult to follow the upstream and other proportions of price adjustment, light sacrifice of profits, heavy losses, which is also one of the reasons for the recent continuous decline of big A. To put it bluntly, the Q4 and 2021 financial reports of various companies will be very difficult to see, especially in the downstream of the industrial chain..."
One-sided inflation can raise interest rates and shrink the balance sheet.
Ice and fire double heaven, how to cure, this requires great wisdom, let us wait and see.
![In real life, the poor are afraid that others know that they are poor, and the rich are afraid that others know that they are rich; those who have the ability are afraid that others will overestimate themselves, and the incompetent people are afraid that others will underestimate themselves. Rich and glorious people[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)