This may sound unfriendly, but it has a good chance of being true.
In 2022, the certain investment opportunity under inflation is the pig, and the semi-certainty opportunity is commodities (such as copper, coal) and new energy under the dual-carbon and energy consumption game.
01
The high inflation in Europe and the United States is as if the whole world is in the quagmire of inflation.
Source: World Monetary Fund
The Fed abruptly accelerated its interest rate hike in December due to persistently higher inflation in the United States.
The eurozone has also lost to reality, returning to the old path of the United States, changing the "temporary inflation" theory of a few years ago and choosing to raise interest rates this year.
The British bull, directly choose to raise interest rates 25bp, the 4 people who oppose interest rate hikes are not because the rate hike drags the economy and oppose, but think that the rate hike is too small, supporting a direct rate hike of 50bp.
Europe and the United States should deal with higher inflation, turn the gun and suddenly raise interest rates, on the surface is self-help, but the actual harm is other countries.
Turkey collapsed, and investors in the global stock and bond markets were uncomfortable.
Looking at the level of global inflation, China's inflation is summed up in a "medium" word, that is, the middle state.
If you have to be precise, it's the "intermediate state-".
Compared with the migrant workers, the United States, which is noisy with wage increases, and the European Union countries, which are in the same price of electricity and natural gas, China is definitely a pure land of inflation.
The latest monthly inflation data shows 7% in the US (expected to rise), 5% in the European Union and 1.5% in China.
However, compared with other advanced economies such as Japan, China's inflation level is still slightly higher.
Take a closer look at the CPI trend and the current Chinese economic policy environment:
China's inflation is on its way up to 2, rising further.
02
Inflation is complex, and there is an opportunity to expand on this, saying only one of the most common situations at present.
The most intuitive manifestation of inflation is that the price of the same thing has risen.
In the era of stability and good, inflation often manifests itself as money growing faster than commodities.
Let's take a look at the big macro perspective first, see the following table:
Generally speaking, unit currency pairs respond to unit products, and when the money supply increases and the unit products do not change, inflation is prone to occur.
If the money supply increases and the unit product increases, the price of the product will remain essentially unchanged.
Reflected in the above three indicators, the relationship is basically consistent: GDP growth + inflation growth rate is about equal to M2 growth rate.
2020 is a bit special, related to the country's strict price control of living materials under the epidemic, and also related to the continuous decline in pork prices.
This is very easy to understand, for example, there were 100 buns on the market before, 100 yuan, each bun 1 yuan. Now that there is 10 yuan more in the market, if the production of buns (labor production creation ability, expressed in GDP) is still maintained, it will cause the equilibrium price of buns to move closer to 1.1 yuan. On the contrary, if 10 more buns are produced, the price of the bun market can still be maintained at 1 yuan.
10 yuan represents the supply of money M2, the ability to produce buns represents GDP, and the price changes of buns represent inflation.
If you follow this traditional economic logic:
Under the current situation of monetary easing, continue to maintain a money supply growth rate of more than 9%, and the mainland must complete the annual GDP growth rate of "guarantee 5", and its inflation level is basically around 4%.
At present, starting from the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in December last year of 1.5%, there is still a lot of room to move closer to 4% in 2022.
Of course, this is only a rough estimate from a macro perspective, and inflation may be greater than 4% based on the IMF's estimate of the mainland's economic growth rate of 4.8% and the reality that the money supply is growing at a rate greater than 9%.
It depends on how our economic growth will manifest itself.
Economic growth can often "erase" some of the weakening of inflation's purchasing power in our currency.
But the ability to fully preserve the purchasing power of the original money requires, as far as possible, a rate of return on the growth rate of the currency minus the size of the economic growth rate.
Although it is difficult, we must at least understand in our hearts that we are in an era of "absolute dependence on monetary input to stimulate the economy", and forget that human labor can effectively promote economic growth.
03
From a "microscopic" perspective, we look at several commodity prices that are closely related to the CPI.
When it comes to inflation in China, pork is an unavoidable topic.
First of all, the conclusion: pork can currently leverage at least 1% CPI growth.
Unless pork prices do not rise or fall further in 2022.
Looking at the price of pork through the futures market, the price difference between the recent contract (LH2203, 13000 points) and the forward contract (LH2209, 17000 points) is about 4000 points, which is reflected in the difference of 2 yuan per kilogram of pork price.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on February 8, the price of pork in the market is about 10.5 yuan / catty.
According to the 2 yuan difference, the potential increase of pork is about 19% (conservative and not conservative you estimate to see).
From the perspective of futures trends, the recent contract is still falling, and the forward contract is rising, and this basis has a tendency to further expand.
Based on statistics from October to December last year.
After my rough manual calculations, I came up with:
In the case of food, tobacco and alcohol accounting for 30% of the CPI, 19% of the expected price increase of pork can drive the CPI up by about 0.96%.
This does not include the rise in the price of other means of subsistence, such as vegetables, medicine, rent, etc.
In addition, we are in an era of high oil prices that are about to reach $100, and the PPI of means of production such as energy has not yet been further transmitted to the CPI.
PS: Specifically, whether it is the CPI on the demand side to guide the PPI, or the PPI to guide the CPI will not be discussed in depth. Too complicated, do not know whether the commodity pricing power is rich or the people are strong, how to account for, let's follow the mainstream to see the early rise of PPI will affect the subsequent rise of CPI.
04
Remember that scissors difference from last year?
This year is the year of gradual realization of transmission.
It is certain that the final pricing of commodities will occur in the vast majority of normal markets: water release, the price of raw materials will increase, and the price of the vast majority of commodities will also increase.
Source: Guosheng Securities Research Institute's PPI and CPI calculations for 2022
PPI is the direct expression of upstream raw material prices, and CPI is the direct expression of commodity prices.
Under the small target of "double carbon", the average energy intensity of each year from 2020 to 2025 needs to be reduced by 2.7%, and the average annual energy intensity of 2020 and 2021 has not been completed, and the average annual energy intensity of the next three years needs to be reduced by 3.5%.
The task is heavy and stressful.
The "double carbon" environment itself will lead to a further increase in the cost side, such as environmental protection and other aspects will have more investment.
In addition, the contradiction between the "double carbon" goal and the dual control of energy consumption will further aggravate the price increase of related industries.
For example, the development of new energy requires non-ferrous metals, non-ferrous metal smelting and other industries with high energy consumption, this contradiction may lead to a further rise in the price of non-ferrous metals.
At present, the non-ferrous metals in the futures market are in the rising stage, and they are still strong even in the case of the fierce speculation in October last year, and the coal thread has fallen sharply.
Yesterday, the price of thermal coal futures rose, and the margin was directly raised to 50%.
The final result of the two games should still be "double carbon" and control the dominance of production capacity from time to time.
In the time cycle of control and loosening, it is the time when traditional energy stocks and new energy stocks alternately perform.
Therefore, the price of raw materials still has a further rise, and the worst will be a situation of high hovering. The decline in PPI is relatively limited (or even further up), and the momentum for the CPI may be moderated.
But it's always up!
05
Of course, whether the specific price can be increased, how high the CPI can rise, but also depends on the consumer side.
In the two years of the epidemic, M2 has risen, M1 has not risen, and money has been kept in the bank as savings, and there is little investment; people without money are very weak in their willingness to consume.
It will more or less inhibit the downward trend of prices and delay the rise of CPI.
In short, in view of the instability of the epidemic, M2 is rising again, and the momentum of economic growth is so insufficient, the slow upward trend of CPI is almost unstoppable.
Unless, in the second quarter, the economy can usher in good news, the price of other commodities in the CPI can fall, then the arrogant CPI may be lower.
The purchasing power in our hands can be eroded a little less!