A data from last night, brushed the screen.
Rmb loan growth in January was 3.98 trillion yuan, close to 4 trillion yuan, and market expectations are already high, 3.76 trillion yuan, which is 400 billion yuan higher than expected. M2 growth reached 9.8%, close to double-digit growth rate, which is very rare, expected to be 9.4%, the previous value is only 9%.
It is the red font part. The data as a whole is positive.
In the market, we often hear two words, one is wide currency and the other is wide credit. What does that mean? Let me explain it to you.
Wide money means that the central bank sends money to commercial banks. You know, the central mother is not directly down to do business. The main business is commercial banks, such as CCB, agriculture and so on.
Wide credit means that commercial banks release money. Typical examples are local infrastructure, real estate, current PPP projects. The money has to be spent.
Wide currency shows that the central mother is a loose monetary policy, which is very understandable. If the credit cannot be broadened, it means that enterprises and ordinary people dare not borrow money, they dare not expand the scale of operation, and their expectations are poor. The money released by the central mother is idling in the bank, which is more difficult to rectify.
Yesterday's data confirms that wide money and wide credit are expanding at the same time. This is indeed good news.
But, however, I would say that this data has actually been partly reacted by the market. For example, the steady growth of the infrastructure sector has performed remarkablely since the beginning of the year, in fact, it is the early perception of this data.
Why, at this stage, stable growth can only rely on infrastructure? And it can only be the old infrastructure?
Because the old infrastructure, such as highways, docks, airports, underground engineering, railways, etc., these projects have a slightly general technical content, are people's livelihood projects, involving a long industrial chain, and can take care of the vast majority of industries. Steel, building materials, cement, paint, glass, pipes, waterproofing, etc., and so on, and so on, and so on.
Several classifications of new infrastructure, UHV, urban railways, wind power and hydropower, and data centers, these have higher technical content, material requirements and volume are relatively small.
Naturally, who can stabilize the economy and stabilize the basic disk, at a glance!
Let's take a look at the variety performance of the futures market:
Rebar Futures, RB2205, this variety, the monthly line three consecutive yang. From the price of 3700, it has risen to 4990 points today.
Simply translated into the words of life, that is, the price of steel bars, which was 3700 yuan per ten tons at the end of last year, rose to 4990 yuan per ten tons today.
Similar prices of Shanghai aluminum, iron ore prices are rising rapidly. Moreover, it is basically unilateral.
Both the price increase in commodity markets and the price increase in infrastructure stocks reflect last night's data. Commodity markets are more focused on the present, while stocks are more focused on future expectations.
Click on the trend chart of today's construction sector, the construction sector rushed up and down, which is quite favorable to the taste of going out. This is the logic of a typical stock market.
At present, there is disagreement that the construction sector can continue to strengthen. One month's data doesn't say anything, and if the second month's data is still the same, the market will correct the anxiety about this stimulus incoherence, and the consensus expectation will come. Then the stocks in the construction sector will usher in the main rise. For now, it is more certain that there is an opportunity for the price increase of metal products.
..................................
Insert it. Yesterday evening's data from enemy countries was not ideal, with CPI hitting a 40-year high, and the onshore market expected a 50 basis point rate hike in March, directly killing the onshore stock market. I think that the high CPI in the United States is not something that can be solved by a simple interest rate hike. It's true that rate hikes are one of the triggers for high inflation, but I think it's more due to unsound supply chains. If the Americans could get the infrastructure better and more workers go to work, inflation in the United States would not be so severe. You know, throughout 2021, our trade surplus with the United States exceeded one trillion, and the United States bought so many of our bargains, and the high price could only find its own reasons.
The new crown is gradually getting bigger and bigger. Many countries have begun to ignore this matter. From the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2022, for three full years, the world was worn out by this virus. However, with the global relaxation, or completely diluting this matter, the problem of survival is solved, and it is a problem of development.
How the world's economic growth rate comes, think about it, or infrastructure, global infrastructure. We are known as the infrastructure demon, the quality of infrastructure is the world's best, we are still vigorously engaged, with those Africa, Southeast Asia, part of Europe, South America, these infrastructure shortage of real estate do not increase?
Under the double carbon, the consumption of metal by windmills, photovoltaics, trams and other enterprises is gradually increasing. Moreover, the upgrading of electronic products is constantly being demanded. The production of these metals is precisely high energy consumption, water-intensive, electricity-intensive, and polluting. One thing goes on and on, and the gap is here.
This morning I bought the stocks of some metal companies, and at the moment of 10 o'clock, I bought Yunhai Metal, Tin Shares, and Orchid Science and Technology. At this moment, the cloud sea metal has risen and stopped, and the luck is really good.
The above analysis is the main logic of my thinking when buying metal stocks.
Of course, my record of operations is just my personal reflection. The timing of my stock buying and the timing of the post are certainly not the same. It's just that today's cash is a little faster. Of course, these stocks I bought may also fall to a halt next Monday, and any copying is extremely risky, and readers are invited to think rationally. Understanding logic is far more useful than copying homework.
In yesterday's article, we talked about Zhifei Bio to take profit and drop the bag at 4 points. The specific analysis is not much to pull, and yesterday's Zhifei creature rose to 5 points at the highest, and today it is turned green. At first glance, the selling point is still relatively reasonable.
....................................
Finally, let me talk about hugging.
If you go too far, you will fall, and if you fall too much, you will rise again, and the cycle will start again.
In the two years of 2012 and 2013, liquor entered the cold winter, and everyone said that the logic of liquor had changed.
In 2018, medicine suffered several major disadvantages at the same time: collection pilot, consistency evaluation, two-vote system, longevity biological vaccine incident, plus trade war, medicine fell to the freezing point, and many people said that the logic of medicine has changed.
The economic downturn in 2020, the real estate explosion in 2021, the bank is also implicated, many people say that the banking industry is not working, the logic has changed.
As a result, liquor is still rising, medicine is counterattacking, and banks are not as unprofitable as some people say. These ghost stories eventually become jokes, how difficult it is to invest in the long term, and often have to walk with ghosts.
Now some people say that the logic of medicine has changed, then look back at the fourteenth five-year plan for the pharmaceutical industry, the view of medicine, in the near future, after the decline changed direction, this ghost story is self-defeating.
The common sense of medicine can be understood as people's livelihood, health should be in the first place, there is no innovation, no profit, how to cultivate high-tech talents, how to progress GJ.
Everything is reincarnation. The story just plays out over and over again. After a long time, everything will be the same as before, but it will test the confidence and patience of the shareholders.
Yesterday, there were rumors that Gülen's fund was redeemed for 40 billion, and the CEIBS fund debunked the rumors. Sure enough, at the end of the plunge, the ghost stories were scarier than the last. In my experience, whenever such news can appear in the market, the decline is basically nearing the end. Whether that's the case, I don't know, let's look at it as we go.