Liu Bowen
Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014252
Shipping/container capacity
【Important Information】
1. Baltic Exchange: 2/10 BDI index 1940, +13.8% q-o-q, +48.9% yo-o-y. The FBX composite index for the week of February 11 was reported at 9609.98, -0.5% month-on-month and +119.1% year-on-year.
2. Shanghai Shipping Exchange: 1/28 of the weekly CCFI composite index reported 3565.33, +0.3% month-on-month, of which the West-Us route reported 2628.62, +1.5% month-on-month, +263.6% year-on-year; The SCFI Composite Index was 5010.36, -0.8% q-o-q and +75.1% yoY.
3. U.S. CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, a 40-year high (expected at 7.3%, previously 7%). Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 6% year-over-year, with an expected value of 5.9% and a previous value of 5.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield broke 2% at a high.
4. China's M2 balance in January was 243.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year, expected 9.2%, and the previous value was 9%.
5. In January, Rizhao Port of Shandong Port overcame the adverse factors such as the epidemic and cold tide weather, and the cargo throughput of Rizhao Port of Shandong Port increased by 5.85% year-on-year, and the container increased by 4.9% year-on-year, setting more than 20 production records of various types, achieving a good opening in the first month.
【Market Outlook】
On the supply side, container production and shipbuilding orders began to recover rapidly in 2021, and although the problem of lack of containers has been alleviated, due to the shipbuilding cycle is usually 2-3 years, there are still hard constraints on the supply side of the transport capacity, and considering the decline in the efficiency of port operations caused by the epidemic to further reduce the effective transport capacity, it is expected that the effective transport capacity supply of the container transport in 2022 will remain at a low level; Demand side, emerging economies in 2022 are expected to show a significant recovery, but the European and American economies gradually entered the interest rate hike cycle, january of the US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, January the US CPI exceeded expectations, excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI is still up 6% year-on-year to accelerate the interest rate hike expectations, but considering that the US commodity inventory is still low, the demand for replenishment in the context of labor shortage is expected to be converted into imports, and the growth rate of China's transportation demand to the West of the United States is expected to slow down, but it is still at a high level. On the whole, the main theme and main variable affecting the shipping market in 2022 is whether the congestion situation in global ports can be substantially alleviated. At present, the epidemic in Europe and the United States has rebounded again and begun to adopt a lying attitude, in this context, the shortage of dock workers, pilots, and collectors will continue to cause a decline in port turnover efficiency, and the situation of the US supply chain being blocked this year will not be significantly alleviated, which will lead to a wide range of high freight rates, and the inflection point will at least wait until the end of the peak season in the second half of 2022. In the short term, the container exports of China's to western United States from February to March coincided with the off-season, and the contradiction between supply and demand has eased, and it is expected that short-term freight rates will decline.
Soybeans/meals
【Outer Disk Situation】
The overnight cbot soybean index fell 3.18 percent to close at 1539.25 cents/pu, while the U.S. soybean meal index fell 4.31 percent to close at $446.1/mt
【Related Information】
1. USDA: Net sales of new soybean crops in the United States in the 21/22 year (previous value: 1.096 million tons) in the week ended February 3, and 895,000 tons of soybeans in the 22/23 year, compared with 882,000 tons in the previous week;
2. USDA: Private exporters reported export sales of 299,700 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, of which 233,700 tons were delivered in the 21/22 market year and 66,000 tons were delivered in the 22/23 market year.
3.conab: Brazil's soybean production is expected to be 125 million tons in 21/22, compared to 140.499 million tons in the previous year, compared to 138.153 million tons last year;
4. Stock Exchange: As of the week of February 10, the flowering rate of Argentine soybeans argentine soybeans was 67.9% (71.5%, an average of 77.4% in five years). The pod rate was 32.3% (33.6% de-the-same, an average of 45.5% over five years). The drum grain rate was 6.2% (3.6% for the same period, an average of 16.6% for five years). The crop condition rating was 17% poor (18% last week and 7% last year); Generally 46% (45% last week, 71% last year); Excellent was 37% (37% last week and 22% last year). 34% of soil moisture is in short supply to extreme shortage (36% last week, 14% last year); 66% were in a favorable position (64% last week, 86% last year) and 0% were wet (1% last week, 0% last year).
【Trading Strategy】
1. Unilateral: conab report data more than expected triggered the evening disk rush higher, but overall, Brazil production cut topic transactions or come to an end, the BSE data show that argentina crop growth is expected to improve, short-term market profit margin weakened, it is recommended to take profit in the early stage, waiting for the following space to confirm;
2. Arbitrage: M-rm05 spread widens and exits
3. Options: Sell m2205-c-3850 (views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for buying and selling)
Grease plates
【Outer Disk Impact】
Overnight Cbot edamame oil main price rose 0.7% to 64.48 cents/lb; Overnight BMD crude palm oil main price rose 1.2% to 5596 ringgit.
1. January 2022 MPOB production data report: opening inventory of 1.61 million tons; Production of 1.25 million tons, down 13.54% month-on-month; Imports of 71,000 tons, down 32,000 tons month-on-month; Exports of 1.25 million tons, down 18.67% month-on-month; Domestic consumption of 230,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons; Inventories were 1.55 million tonnes, down 62,000 mt sequentially.
According to its shipping survey agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1-10 were 318,078 tonnes, down 5% from 334,750 tonnes exported in the same period in January.
According to data released by independent inspection firm Amspec Agri, Malaysia exported 320,508 tonnes of palm oil from February 1-10, down 0.5% from 318,928 tonnes in January.
According to data released by shipping survey agency Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysia exported 304,415 tonnes of palm oil products from 1 to 10 February, down 6.5% from 325,601 tonnes in the same period in January.
5.Malaysia's palm oil production in January was 1.25 million tonnes, up 11% year-on-year. But palm oil yields are below the decade-old average, reflecting chronic structural shortages as well as short-term severe labour shortages and weather conditions. The direct or indirect result of lower-than-expected Malay production and supply restrictions on Indonesian palm oil exports has plunged importing countries into a quagmire.
6. Domestic soybean oil consumption in the United States has declined significantly in recent weeks. At least one large raw wood factory was closed due to high production costs.
1. Unilateral: Tight supply of low inventory for the reality of the vegetable oil market superimposed Indonesian export restrictions to make the near-end supply unsolvable, but in recent days, there have been repeated rumors of soybean rapeseed oil dumping in the mood to suppress prices. The overall view of the grease still maintains a strong shock idea, and it is difficult to fall deeply in the general direction. After years, the fluctuation of oil and fat is huge, and it is recommended to operate cautiously.
2, arbitrage: continue to hold the expansion of yp05.
3. Options: Wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Corn/cornstarch
1. According to the latest survey data of mysteel corn team in 7 provinces and 59 prefectures and cities across the country, as of February 10, the progress of grain sales in the main corn producing areas in the country was 56%, an increase of 3% over January 27 and 15% slower than the same period last year.
2. According to the latest survey data of mysteel corn team on 96 major corn deep processing manufacturers in 12 regions across the country, in the sixth week of 2022, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises as of February 9 was 4.917 million tons, a decrease of 5.57% from last week.
3.11 deep processing to 341 vehicles, an increase of 68 vehicles over yesterday, Shandong deep processing purchase price part of the rise, Heilongjiang fell, Beigang new grain mainstream price of 2600-2630 yuan / ton, flat.
1. Unilateral: Pay attention to the rhythm of selling grain after corn years, it is expected to be strong shock, the futures price rise is higher, and corn is temporarily waiting and seeing. Starch stocks have accumulated significantly, and the shock is expected to weaken.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity for starch corn to shrink.
3. Options: Wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Pig
【Market Information】
1. Spot quotation: Yesterday, the national pig price continued to fall sharply, of which the northeast region was 11.1-11.4 yuan / kg, down 0.6-0.7 yuan / kg from the previous day; North China 12-12.8 yuan / kg, down 0.7-0.8 yuan / kg from the previous day; East China 12.1-12.2 yuan / kg, down 1-1.1 yuan / kg from the previous day; South China 12.6-13.6 yuan / kg, down 0.2-0.4 yuan / kg from the previous day, southwest 11.6-13.1 yuan / kg, down 0.2-0.3 yuan / kg from the previous day;
3. Piglet sow quotation: As of the week of January 26, the price of 50 kg sows was 1648 yuan / head, flat from the previous week, and the price of 15 kg piglets was 399 yuan / head, flat compared with the previous week;
4. Ministry of Ecology and Environment: Issued the Action Plan for The Battle of Agricultural and Rural Pollution Control (2021-2025), strictly supervising the pollution control of livestock breeding;
5. General Administration of Customs: Suspend the acceptance of declarations for the import of Lithuanian beef departing from February 9 (including February 9).
1. Unilateral: the spot price drop range as a whole is in line with market expectations, coupled with the disk surface still has a certain upward pressure, the recent month contract still has a certain expectation of falling, but with the gradual de-industrialization of domestic production capacity, loss expectations are intensified, the supply of the far month or will weaken, and the trend differentiation of the two is intensified.
2. Arbitrage: LH39 anti-arbitrage (the above views are for reference only, not used as the basis for entering the market)
chicken
1. White feather broiler chicken: the workers have not yet fully returned to the factory, the slaughtering enterprises are working at a low level, and the demand for wool chicken supply is general; Slaughtering of chickens in the market is still in a state of shutdown; It is expected that the price of Shandong wool chicken will stabilize at 3.9 yuan / catty tonight.
2. White feather broiler seedlings: on February 12, Shandong Dachang invoiced a quotation of 2.30 yuan / feather, stable compared with the 11th price, Shandong Dachang actually traded 1.90-2.10 yuan / feather, and the actual transaction price of small and medium-sized factories was 1.20-1.80 yuan / feather; The actual transaction price of Liaoning large factory is 1.80-2.10 yuan / feather, and the actual transaction price of small and medium-sized factories is 1.50-1.70 yuan / feather.
3. Cut products: 2/10 northeast, north China part of the price trend of large meat cuts stable, frozen large breasts price of 9.3-9.8 yuan / kg.
4. Zhuo Chuang Information: The average operating rate of key domestic white feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in January was 53.76%, a decrease of 10.28 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from January last year; The average storage capacity rate of frozen products was 57.06%, down 8.91 percentage points from the previous month and down 5.73 percentage points from January last year.
5. Zhuo Chuang Information: On january 28, the weekly production of White Feather Broiler chickens in China was 535.44 billion birds, which was flat month-on-month.
6. Zhuo Chuang Information: 2022/2/4-2022/2/10 The average operating rate of key domestic white feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week was 27.65%, down 8.53 percentage points from the week before the holiday; The average storage capacity rate of frozen products was 36.24%, down 7.29 percentage points from the week before the holiday.
On the cost side, feed prices continued to rise in January, and the recent shortage of soybean meal to Hong Kong was tight and the price was higher, and it is expected that the price of broiler feed in February will remain high. On the supply side, in the medium term, the output of white feather broilers is still continuing to grow, and yellow feather broilers have taken the lead in dematerialization, and it is expected that the stock of white feather parent breeders in the first half of 2022 will remain high, and the production capacity of white feather broilers will still be dematerialized. On the demand side, under the influence of the low pig price and the epidemic, terminal consumption is still under pressure. At present, there are more empty bars of white feathered chickens, and the poor profits at the breeding end are superimposed on the rising cost of feed, resulting in a low mood of supplementary fences. In the short term, there are not many wool chickens out of the pen, this week's slaughterhouse operating rate is only 27.65%, down 8.5 percentage points from the previous month, it is expected that most slaughtering enterprises will start next week, and the acquisition will increase, forming a certain support for the price of wool chickens. However, as post-holiday consumption enters the off-season, middlemen are cautious about taking goods, and the price trend of short-term wool chicken and split products is expected to remain volatile.
Egg
1. Spot: Yesterday, most areas of the national egg price were stable, the average price of the main production area was 3.75 yuan / catty, slightly up 0.02 from the previous trading day, and the average price of the main sales area was 3.95 yuan / catty, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today's national egg prices have risen steadily, Beijing egg prices as a whole rose slightly, the mainstream Shimen, Huilongguan reference price of 165 yuan / 44 pounds, and yesterday the price rose by 3 yuan, Great Ocean Road as of 7 o'clock in the morning cumulative arrival of 4 cars, less arrivals, normal goods, the price of 165-170 yuan / box, slightly higher than yesterday's price. Today, the price of eggs in Shanghai remains stable, the pudong price of red eggs is 105 yuan / 27.5 catties, and the mainstream wholesale price of powdered eggs is 196 yuan / 45 kg net weight, all of which are the same as yesterday.
2. According to Zhuo Chuang data: in January 2022, the number of laying hens in the country was 1.141 billion, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month and a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, which was basically in line with expectations. In January, the total sales volume of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information was 39.26 million chicken seedlings, a decrease of 3.4% month-on-month and an increase of 0.2% year-on-year. Without considering the delay and centralized elimination, it can be inferred from the previous supplementary column data that the stock of laying hens in February, March, April and May 2022 was roughly 1.148 billion, 1.179 billion, 1.199 billion and 1.21 billion.
3. According to Zhuo Chuang data, the number of layer chickens eliminated during the Spring Festival was small, and the number of layer chickens in the main production areas of the country was 7.93 million in the week of February 4, a decrease of 57% over the previous week. According to the monitoring and statistics of the daily age of eliminated chickens in the key production area markets across the country, the average elimination of chickens in the week of February 10 was 498 days, a decrease of 3 days compared with the previous week.
4. According to Zhuo Chuang data: the inventory of the production link and the inventory of the circulation link decreased in the week of February 10, the average weekly inventory of the production link was 2.15 days, an increase of 0.25 days over the previous week, and the average weekly inventory of the circulation link was 1.25 days, an increase of 0.34 days over the previous week.
5. Yesterday, the main chicken producing areas in the country were eliminated and fell steadily, and the average price of the main chicken producing areas was 4.43 yuan / catty, down 0.02 from the previous trading day.
1, unilateral: January in the production column data low to give the market upward momentum, and the recent egg inventory compared with the same period in previous years is at a low level, the egg inventory time may be shorter, the egg spot price has been stopped and rebounded, the price increase is likely to start in advance. The May contract is the peak season in the first half of the year, and the January laying hens in the production stock is currently at a low level in recent years, and the short-term probability of continuing to rise is large.
2, arbitrage: according to statistical arbitrage, the 6-9 price difference in 1-2 months time is likely to go lower, it is recommended to continue to hold in 6-9 months. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market))
sugar
In a january report, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) estimated that Russian sugar beet sugar production in the 2021/22 crushing season is about 5.65 million tons. According to the report, the processing of sugar beets in Russia has come to an end, with sugar production reaching 5.4 million tons, an increase of 430,000 tons from the previous crushing season, and considering molasses processing, it is expected that a total of about 5.65 million tons of sugar will be produced. According to preliminary data from the Russian Statistical Office, the sugar beet harvest in the 2021/22 crushing season was 38.7 million tons, compared to 33.9 million tons in the previous crushing season. Market experts believe that the final harvest data released in March may be higher. According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, the area of sugar beets will increase by 65,900 hectares this year to 1,007,100 hectares.
2. On February 10, Guangxi South China Sugar Group's factory warehouse car plate new sugar quotation was 5630-5660 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 yuan / ton. Guangxi Feng sugar warehouse car plate new sugar quotation 5710-5730 yuan / ton, to maintain stability. Guangxi East Sugar Factory warehouse car plate new sugar quotation 5710-5750 yuan / ton, maintaining stability, the transaction is general. Guangxi Xianggui Group's first-class new sugar factory warehouse car plate quotation of 5640-5720 yuan / ton, maintaining stability; Secondary new sugar is quoted at 5590-5670 yuan / ton, maintaining stability. Guangxi Guang sugar factory warehouse car plate quotation of 5900-5930 yuan / ton, maintaining stability, the transaction is general. Guangxi South Sugar Boxuan Warehouse is quoted at 5730 yuan / ton, maintaining stability and general transactions.
1. Unilateral: After the year, the domestic gradually saw the high point of inventory, the supply and demand situation improved, and the Zheng sugar shock went higher.
2. Arbitrage: Wait and see.
3. Option: Buy SR205-C-5700. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Cotton-cotton yarn
Yesterday, the price of ice's main US cotton contract closed lower, with the main force falling 0.64 (-0.52%) to 123.2 cents/lb.
1. According to the latest USDA export report, the US signed 42,000 tons of upland cotton in 2021/22 in the week of February 3, and 2.7615 million tons of upland cotton in 2021/22 as of the same week, with a signing progress of 88% and a 5-year average of 83%; The weekly shipment was 68,000 tons, and the cumulative shipment volume as of the current week was 953,200 tons, the signing progress was 30%, and the five-year average was 38%. The progress of the U.S. cotton signing is currently acceptable, and the shipment volume in recent weeks is also acceptable.
2. As of 24:00 on February 9, the cotton processing data for 2021 is as follows: Xinjiang has processed 5.2163 million tons, a decrease of 6.6% from 5.5849 million tons in the same period last year. On the 9th, Xinjiang lint cotton was processed by 0.54 million tons, compared with 0.36 million tons per day in the same period last year.
On the 3.9th, India's domestic S-6 spot quotation returned to Rs 78,000/kandi line, quoted at Rs.78,250/kandi, up Rs 400 from yesterday, or 133.75 cents/lb.
1. Unilateral: The domestic market pays more attention to favorable factors such as low inventory on the supply side and strong trend of the outer disk in the short term. However, as cotton prices rise, cotton prices will be closer and closer to this year's lint cost line, and the ginneries and trades that were previously covered have demand to sell hedging near the cost line, and there is pressure to sell hedging near the former high. In the short term, the bulls are treated, but they also need to be cautious about the risk of decline, because the price difference between domestic and external cotton is narrowing, and it is doubtful whether Indian cotton can maintain a trend of continued rise.
2, arbitrage: January is the new annual crop, in this year's cotton prices soared stimulated, the next year is expected to increase the cotton planting area will be greatly increased, and September is the time when the green and yellow, low inventory will be obvious, it is recommended to hold more September empty January arbitrage for a long time.
3. Options: Zheng Mian's price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is facing greater hedging pressure above, and it is recommended that a bull market spread strategy can be considered. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).
peanut
1. Yesterday's domestic peanut prices ran smoothly. Most of the production areas have started construction one after another, the market transactions are sporadic, and the high-price transaction intention on the demand side is weak. The quotation in some regions is consistent with that of the years ago, the northeast currency rice quotation is 3.75 yuan / jin, the Henan currency rice quotation is 3.75-3.80 yuan / jin, and the Shandong production area currency rice quotation is 3.7-4.0 yuan / jin. In terms of oil and rice, Luhua and Yihai Oil Plants have not yet started construction, and when to start construction will be announced separately. Jinsheng, Yuhuang, Xingquan, announced the purchase price, the quotation of 7200 yuan / ton.
2. Peanut oil: peanut oil enterprises have started construction, most of the enterprises began to start today, the last trading day has not yet been quoted. Peanut oil is in the traditional off-season, the market transaction has not yet started, peanut oil trading parties wait and see.
3. From the current point of view, the market is still fully started around the fifteenth day of the first month, and the market is mainly based on on-demand procurement. The oilseed rice market is generally stocked, and the commodity rice market has not improved significantly.
4. In 2022, customs statistics released December import data, shelled peanut imports of 13875 tons, an increase of 712.8% month-on-month, down 49.7% year-on-year. Peanut kernel imports were 6365 tons, down 0.6% month-on-month and 84.6% year-on-year. Peanut oil imports were 10274.2 tons, an increase of 46.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 76.5%.
Unilateral: Due to the abundant global and domestic production, the supply of peanuts is sufficient. With the peak of peanut oil and peanut consumption in the past two years of the epidemic, and has declined, the overall demand for peanuts is poor, and the price is difficult to support. Coupled with the impact of foreign imported peanuts exempt from export tax import tax import low cost impact, the overall trend of peanuts is downward. In the short term, the epidemic in Henan has increased the demand for peanut oil, and it has also supported the price of peanuts. After the holiday, it was affected by the high price of U.S. beans on the outer plate, or the price of peanut oil was boosted, which indirectly affected the price of peanuts. During the holidays, the epidemic did not spread on a large scale, so the boost in peanut oil prices was limited. However, because the overall peanut inventory is in a low position, there may be a demand for replenishment after the start of the press and processing plants, which has a role in pushing up the price of peanuts. It is recommended to continue to wait and see, and go short at the high.
Arbitrage: Because the valuation of the current 04 contract is high, the futures are too much out of the spot price, and the 04 contract mainly takes the delivery logic. Those who have spot channels can choose to buy spot, sell 04 contracts, remove positions and delivery costs, and can lock in a basis profit of 300-400 yuan.