The Concept of Two-Front Warfare has been talked about by Americans for many years, but the United States has never really fought two wars at the same time, let alone a major power war that is close to the ceiling of difficulty. The United States, Eastern Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region are both arching fire at the same time to create an atmosphere of war, is the United States desperate, or does it have other considerations?
At the beginning of 2022, the U.S. military action is like crazy, in the past January, on the one hand, in China's periphery of the heavy military pressure, double aircraft carrier battle drills, amphibious guard groups and aircraft carrier battle group joint exercises, and even at most in China's periphery once gathered 3 aircraft carrier strike groups, 2 amphibious guard groups and a light aircraft carrier battle group of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force including 6 aircraft carrier battle groups, this force deployment is also unprecedented in history.
On the other hand, in the direction of Eastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia, NATO and Russia can be described as a sword, the United States, Russia, Ukraine have successively put a lot of harsh words, the topic of war has been around the Ukraine crisis, the West from time to time also hype Russia is about to send troops to Ukraine a variety of high-traffic topics. While the US aircraft carrier shows its muscles around China, the United States has also pulled Italy and other NATO countries to conduct a three-carrier battle group combat drill in the Black Sea, which has almost fulled the atmosphere of the war, and even the United States has threatened to directly sanction Russian President Putin.
This is more interesting, the direction of Eastern Europe and Russia to the end, the Asia-Pacific direction of china war blackmail, the US military is not only a two-front battle, but also with the two most powerful countries after the United States to carry out two-front combat, the United States is confident or arrogant? Where does the United States come from?
Our in-depth analysis will find that the United States has deployed two identical bureaus in two directions. These two identical bureaus, in addition to the strategic transformation that the United States is promoting, are also directly related to the Fed's intention to raise interest rates at the beginning of the year, or the United States intends to raise interest rates after deliberately exacerbating the crisis. This is a routine operation of the United States, that is, through military maximum pressure, to fill the expectations of war in a predetermined area and promote the better flow of high-quality capital back to the United States.
The reason why the United States can deploy two nearly identical bureaus in these two directions is that there is an internal and external cause. The internal factor is that there is Ukraine in the direction of Eastern Europe and the DPP authorities on the island in the direction of East Asia, both of which are "adding to the United States"; the external reason is that the United States intends to raise interest rates, so it has suddenly intensified its military action, which is to create an expectation.
In the direction of East Asia, the US military moves are more embodied in the containment and containment of China, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea are more around the Taiwan Strait in essence, and we probably have a very clear expectation for the final showdown between China and the United States. The ukrainian crisis is essentially a microcosm of NATO's eastward expansion, part of the United States' extreme pursuit of Russia, and its core purpose is to squeeze Russia's geostrategic space and completely lock Russia in the cold zone of northeastern Eurasia, somewhat similar to locking Qin in Kunhan.
Ukraine belongs to the kind of typical wrong step after the wrong master, the earliest is Ukraine's intention to join NATO ignited the fuse of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia certainly did not agree, and then Ukraine lost the Crimean Peninsula, after losing Ukraine intends to resort to force, and finally the force can not be returned, but makes its situation more difficult, so Ukraine intends to continue to be wrong, NATO as the last "life-saving straw", thus triggering a greater crisis.
In the layout of the United States, another obvious feature is that the two fronts are each land and a sea, the two battlefields in Eastern Europe are Ukraine and the Black Sea, and East Asia is the Taiwan Sea and the South China Sea. Behind the Eastern European direction to the United States is NATO, and East Asia is dependent on the Indo-Pacific quadrulogue mechanism for the United States. Speaking of this, if we want to discuss whether the United States has the ability to win the east and west fronts, we need to distinguish and analyze the strength of China and Russia in the two dimensions of sea and land.
Objectively speaking, Russia is obviously inferior to NATO in conventional military strength, which even Russian President Vladimir Putin has openly acknowledged, but Russia's military strength has a nuclear big stick. China's conventional military strength is slightly stronger than Russia's overall strength and composition, especially China's ability to form an absolute advantage over the United States in local areas.
Because, however, from the perspective of the quality of the navy and air force, China is better than Russia, especially in the construction of some equipment systems with asymmetric combat advantages, China is much better than Russia, and the most core killer of the PEOPLE's Liberation Army against the United States is not the world's most technologically performing and largest conventional missile strike group controlled by the Rocket Force. The first- and second-line military bases around China are basically within the delivery range of the People's Liberation Army Dongfeng Express, and can effectively curb the us Navy's combat strength, which is crucial for China to form a local advantage.
The above is a basic situation, we refine it into the specific battlefield, according to the situation of the United States and Russia on the Syrian battlefield, Ukraine on the land battlefield NATO may not be able to gain an advantage over Russia, once the situation gets out of control, with the current Deployment of Russia's troops on the Ukrainian border, Ukraine is likely to be unable to maintain even the current half of the country in a short period of time, which is determined by the geographical environment of the Russian-Ukrainian border and the deployment of troops of the two warring sides. However, we also have to admit that in the Black Sea, although Russia has transferred the cruisers of the Northern Fleet, it is still difficult to be on the same level as NATO in the Black Sea, and NATO's maritime superiority is still relatively obvious.
The situation in China is the most severe, it is far more severe than the current Russian-Ukrainian border, we have to unify the Taiwan Strait, there is also the South China Sea, and more importantly, there is a foolish India behind us, and two-front combat is still an inescapable option. China has its own Advantages on the Sino-Indian Border, and the logging of troops and the logging of diplomatic relations are all in our options, and the logging of troops in the western theater of strength absolutely has the strength to stabilize the war situation, and the cutting of Indians has enemies on all sides, and there are many layouts that we can use.
Therefore, although China faces the risk of two-front combat, but China still more concentrated on dealing with threats from the sea, we have the strength to stabilize our rear, so the PLA's heavy troops are still more concentrated in the direction of the sea, in 2016 the United States escaped from the front, lost the largest maritime confrontation after the Cold War, the current PLA normalized far-sea training, the formation of dual aircraft carrier battle groups, the United States does not have much chance of winning.
Synthesizing the above, whether the United States is going to war on the Eastern Front or the Western Front, it is not a wise choice, and now the United States is at any cost to create war expectations in both directions of China and Russia, and the military significance is by no means the true intention of the United States, perhaps it is more in line with the current interests of the United States to create war expectations through military increases, and the United States will definitely not fight a war without a chance of winning, just as the United States has just withdrawn from the war in the past, and the practice of accumulating strength is more consistent.