Scientists warn that the 21st century will see severe and widespread droughts

Drought is one of the most devastating natural disasters in the world, often causing severe damage to agriculture, ecosystems and human society. Historical records of precipitation, runoff and observed drought indexes all show that drought has increased in several hotspots since the 1950s, including Africa, Southern Europe, East Asia, Eastern Australia, Northwest Canada and Southern Brazil.

Experts say climate model projections also suggest that droughts are likely to become more severe and widespread as greenhouse gas-induced global warming continues in the 21st century. Recently, researchers from the State University of New York at Albany further studied the hydroclimate and drought changes in the latest predictions of two models in the coupling mode network comparison project (CMIP6) Phase VI.

The study shows that the latest projections of the CMIP6 model reaffirm that in the context of high emissions of greenhouse gases in the 21st century, there will be a 200% increase in widespread droughts and agricultural droughts in the Americas (including the Amazon), Europe and the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, Southeast Asia and Australia.

The drought is expected to last longer and spread more widely at the end of the 21st century (2070-99).

The model results show that the mean and flatness of the probability distribution function of the drought indicator have decreased, although there is a great deal of uncertainty in individual predictions, partly due to internal variability.

In addition, the researchers said that as temperatures rise, the demand for moisture in the atmosphere increases everywhere, and precipitation decreases in many subtropical regions. These are the main drivers of the expected increase in drought.

The related research paper titled CMIP6 Model-Projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the Twenty-First Century was published in the Journal of Climate.

Forward-looking Economist APP Information Group

Original text of the paper:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/35/3/JCLI-D-21-0442.1.xml