Shaw River: Biden's year in power: the evaluation of "temperature difference" is prominent
Source: Xinmin Evening News, January 27, 2022; Global Strategy Think Tank, World Economic and Political Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
WeChat platform editor: Zhou Yue
The biden administration's declining approval rating stems from its failure to properly respond to the "virus crisis" that has been out of control during the Trump era. Looking ahead to the looming midterm elections, the Biden administration and Democrats do face serious challenges from a possible shrinking of the Congress seats.
On January 20, 2021, Biden was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on Capitol Hill. A year has come, Biden reviewed his report card for the past year at a press conference on the 19th. However, in terms of interviews with the US media and recent reactions on social media, the "temperature difference" between the private sector and the official is obvious.
Why is that? Is it possible for Biden to change the situation in November's midterm elections?
1. The contrast between performance and polls is stark
Q: How do you see Biden's ratings for his year in office? Why is there a "temperature difference" between the official and the American people on Biden's achievements in power?
A: Not only Biden, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klein also said in an interview with The United Press Agency that the Biden administration has still achieved a lot of achievements and achievements under the obstruction of a considerable number of severe obstacles. Among these performances, what can be quantified include vaccinates 210 million Americans with 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, adding 6 million new jobs to the United States, passing a $1.9 trillion U.S. Bailout Act and a $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act; less energetic include making the White House "normal" and "decent" again, with no president clamoring all day about greenland or claiming to allow Japan and South Korea to own nuclear weapons alone. The United States is finally back in the Paris Agreement on climate change and global climate governance. What's more, the results were achieved without the Republicans cooperating at all. Biden admitted that he "did not expect that the number one thing that Washington has spent so much effort to ensure is that President Biden must not be allowed to do anything." He even said he had been wondering what Republican Senate Leader McConnell was doing "for." In this regard, Biden, who is "a martyr in his twilight years and full of heart", does have reasons for self-satisfaction.
However, at the end of Biden's year in office, the White House poll figures are quite poor. According to a latest poll by Gallup and CNN, only 41 percent of U.S. adults currently support Biden, compared with 54 percent. Moreover, Biden's approval rating was originally in the high range of 54% to 57% between January and June last year, but has since gone all the way down until it reached a recent low. If measured by the "instantaneous" approval rating on the first anniversary of his administration, Biden ranks second from the bottom of all U.S. presidents after World War II, only higher than Trump, whose support rate was just 38.4% that year.
The reason why the polls are so trendy is because Biden's proud epidemic prevention and control suffered a Delta mutation strain after the initial immediate results, after which the epidemic situation in the United States deteriorated again, seriously disrupting the supply chain and greatly reducing public recognition of the Biden administration's anti-epidemic efforts; second, because the American people, although generally welcoming the Biden administration's "big" relief and infrastructure bills, did not like the ensuing serious inflation, and the effect of inflation was most obvious in the third and fourth quarters of last year, reaching " Once in forty years" height, and shows the trend of continued spread. That largely offsets Biden's efforts to tighten relief and boost the economy.
In short, the biden administration's declining approval rating stems from its failure to properly respond to the "virus crisis" that has been out of control during the Trump era.
2, the position is more "inward-looking" than in the past
Q: In reviewing the year's diplomacy, Biden stressed the importance and necessity of the US global allies and partnerships. So, in the eyes of the outside world, "America is back"?
A: "America is back" is a signal bidden rushed to send to his allies and partners as soon as he took office, and his foreign policy over the past year has indeed improved the international image of the United States a little. On the "real" side, the United States began to re-participate in the global mechanism and global governance, such as returning to the United Nations Human Rights Council, returning to the Paris Agreement on climate change, launching the global minimum corporate tax rate initiative, and establishing the US-EU Trade and Technology Council, while no longer threatening "friendly sides" in trade relations and security cooperation as frequently as in the Trump era. On the "virtual" side, the Biden administration has also returned to "normal" in its rhetoric toward allies, re-showing respect for allies and alliance relations. Even if the Biden administration is similar to Trump in terms of specific policies, its approach is more gentle and gentle. For example, for the defense spending of allies, US Secretary of State Blinken said that the value and contribution to allies cannot be measured by a single number, but the commitments made by allies should also be fulfilled, which is much more convenient than Trump always saying that allies are taking advantage of the United States.
For Biden, though, simply getting the U.S. back to "normal" in those areas isn't enough to get past partners to acknowledge that "America is back." European allies are the most "critical" of the Biden administration, with many voices believing that the latter's foreign policy is "Trumpism without Trump." The reason for this is that the essence of Biden's "foreign policy in the service of the US middle class" is still economic nationalism, and the new US administration has made it clearer that it will not promote a new free trade agreement before "enhancing the economic status of the United States", which is even more "inward-looking" than before; second, Biden has not fully communicated with NATO allies and insisted on withdrawing troops on time in the case of a rapid "deterioration" of the situation in Afghanistan, resulting in the collapse of the Kabul regime that the United States and NATO have worked hard to support for more than 20 years The third is the sudden attack of the Biden administration, which pulled up the Australian-British-American security cooperation mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region and provided Australia with nuclear-powered submarine technology, resulting in the "voiding" of the conventional submarine contracts signed by France and Australia before, making European allies feel "stabbed in the back". Not only European allies, but also many foreign policy experts in the United States do not agree with Biden's above approach, for example, in the column launched by Foreign Policy magazine to rate "Biden Diplomacy" according to "ABC", his Afghanistan policy has an "F".
For the African Allies, including China, "the United States is back" is even more of a false proposition. On the China side, Biden has inherited and upgraded almost all of the economic crackdowns of the Trump era. Even on tariffs, which are most opposed in the United States, the Biden administration has remained unmoved by numerous petitions from the business community, maintaining high "illegal" tariffs and even brewing new excuses to "legitimize" them. The Biden administration has also done everything possible to obstruct and undermine China's efforts to expand economic ties and deepen cooperation with other countries in the world. In Europe, Blinken and the "Sullivans" have been persuading the EU not to "easily" ratify the comprehensive investment agreement with China, and in the Asia-Pacific region, in the face of the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and China's application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the United States has proposed to establish a new Indo-Pacific economic framework, which is not aimed at expanding economic ties between countries, but seeks to impose restrictions on technology, infrastructure and so-called standards. Such a United States cannot talk about returning to the right path of mutually beneficial cooperation and common development with other countries in the world, but on the contrary, it is going further and further down the wrong road.
3. Want to "defeat magic with magic"?
Q: With the November midterm elections still months away, what are the prospects for Biden and his Democratic Party to govern? What issues need to be solved urgently?
A: Biden's poll numbers continue to decline, but they are not completely without positive factors.
First, precedents abound for a rapid decline in support for a new president. If you calculate the average approval rating for the first year, Biden's 48.9 percent figure is not particularly ugly. CNN specifically searched the previous poll data, pointing out that the average approval rating of re-elected Presidents Reagan and Obama in the first year of office was below 50%, the former was 47%, the latter was 49%, and Biden's approval rating was between Bo Zhong. If the time is relaxed to four years, the United States may indeed break through from the "pinch" of the epidemic and inflation, and Biden, who is trying to "correct the chaos", may once again enjoy the high approval rate in the first half of the year in power.
As for the current growing political crisis and ethnic rift in the United States, it is not necessarily bad news for Biden and the Democratic Party. According to polls, only 38 percent of Americans now believe the U.S. is "on the right path," while the remaining 62 percent believe the U.S. is "on the wrong path," the worst figure since the Carter administration.
But because the White House itself is being hampered by Individual Senators, Republicans and even Democrats, the 62 percent of disillusioned may not be targeting the Biden administration. Even if it does disappoint the Biden administration, the reason is not necessarily that it has gone "too far" to advance the Democratic agenda, but perhaps not enough to overcome strong resistance from Republicans and conservatives. Again, according to polls, Biden's approval rating among Republican voters has hovered at a very low level of around 12 percent, while among Democratic voters it has fallen from 98 percent to 82 percent. This means that the decline in Biden's approval rating may be mainly due to the disappointment of Democrats and neutral voters with Biden's administration, but these people may not necessarily switch to the Trump camp in the election. And even the 82 percent after the drop shows that Democratic voters are quite adamant about Biden's support.
Looking ahead to the looming midterm elections, the Biden administration and Democrats do face serious challenges from a possible shrinking of the Congress seats. But at a time when political polarization is increasing and "undignified political strife" is never ending, the Biden administration and the Democratic camp may only choose to further radicalize themselves, that is, the so-called "magic can only be defeated by magic."
In a recent internal review, many Democratic party supporters believe that the main mistake made by the Biden administration in its first year was to "talk too much about unity and not about struggle", insufficient protection of voting rights, and the introduction of a series of legislation restricting voting rights in 19 states controlled by the Republican Party, which made it more difficult for minorities to vote. They argue that in order to better stimulate the political enthusiasm of Democratic voters, Biden should pay more back to minorities, especially African-American voters, who mostly support the Democratic Party, more appearances across the country and participate "more deeply" in the upcoming midterm elections.
*Disclaimer: This article only represents the personal views of the author and does not represent the position of this official account
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