Pharmaceutical fall,
Liquor falls,
New energy also fell.
Well, chicken soup can't stop,
Today let's talk about "Being a Friend of Time".
Is it true that the longer the fund is held, the more money it makes?
Don't doubt it, it's really like this
The same base selection strategy, holding for 1 year and holding for 2 years, the income gap can be so large that you doubt life.
01
Buy high-yield funds
First of all, let's talk about the high-yield fund that many people like to buy.
What will be the return when you buy the "TOP5 fund with top 5 returns in the past 5 years" at the beginning of each year? Can't beat the CSI 300!
Don't doubt this conclusion, Lazy Cat backtested the data.
Starting from the beginning of the last bull market in 2014, buy the "Top 5 Funds with Returns in the Past 5 Years" on January 1 every year and hold them for 1 year, and buy a new "Top 5 Fund with Returns in the Past 5 Years" after 1 year. (Common Equity Fund + Partial Equity Hybrid Fund + Balanced Hybrid Fund + Flexible Allocation Fund)
For example, on January 1, 2014, I bought a fund with a return of TOP5 for 2009-2013.
On January 1, 2015, I bought a fund with a return of TOP5 for 2010-2014.
As of December 31, 2021, the portfolio's total return was 98.53%, an annualized 8.91%. It looks good, but in the same period, the CSI 300 index rose by 112.03%, up 13.5%. Buying high-yield funds for the past 5 years every year, it is impossible to beat the CSI 300 Index.
Is it a fund that doesn't work?
Not really.
Another way of thinking, or buy "the past 5 years of income TOP5 fund", but the holding time from 1 year to 2 years, the buying frequency also changed from "one year to buy" to "two years to buy",
clang! clang! clang!
The old hen becomes a duck,
The total income doubled, from 98.53% to 199.42%, not only outperforming the CSI 300, but also outperforming 87.39% of the total.
02
Buy funds that have consistently ranked high
If it is unreliable to hold high-yield funds in the short term,
What about buying funds that have been ranked at the top of the list?
There are too few funds in the top 20% of the same category for 5 consecutive years, and Lazy Cat has selected the top 20% of the same fund for 3 consecutive years.
Starting from 2014, I bought a fund that "was in the top 20% of the same category every year for the past 3 years" on January 1 every year, and after holding it for 1 year, I replaced it with a new fund that "has been the top 20% of the same type every year for the past 3 years".
What are the benefits? Worse! From 2014 to 2021, the total return was only 80.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 31.32%.
However, when the holding time changes from "1 year" to "2 years", and the buying frequency changes from "one year to buy" to "two years to buy", the income will be 230.11%, killing CSI 300!
03
What are the funds that have just backtested the "TOP5 returns in the past 5 years" and "top 20% of the same kind every year for 3 consecutive years"?
This is the "top 5 income in the past 5 years" fund. The red label is thicker than the fund manager that everyone is more familiar with,
(Fund managers and fund size (A and C share merger) are all data at that time, such as "Invesco Great Wall Domestic Demand Growth No. 2", the fund managers on January 1, 2015 were Wang Penghui and Yang Peng, and the fund size on January 1, 2015 was 9.976 billion))
After 2017, the basic list is "plus red label bold",
Less before 2017.
However, to change the way of thinking, they were not small at that time, the performance was good, and the probability was also a star fund manager, and the basic people who bought it would not be less.
This is the fund that "has been in the top 20% of its kind every year for the past 3 years",
A large piece of red tongtong,
Are more familiar fund managers,
Small partners should have bought their funds to a greater or lesser extent, and may also be being deeply set by them.
But backtesting data,
Since 2014, they have bought their funds every year, held them for only 1 year, and have been hung by the CSI 300 Index. If you hold it for 2 years, you can kill the CSI 300 index in turn.
The Buddha's saying has clouds: "The wind is not moving, the veil is not moving, it is your heart that is moving",
The mentality of many small partners has followed the market up and down,
But if you think about it from another angle, the market rises and falls like the wind blows, which is the norm.
The market has been up and down, but recently your mentality has changed~
Chicken soup after drinking, or to prompt the risk, is not a good historical return of the fund, hold two or three years will be able to make money, there are many factors that need to be carefully considered,
For example, Ren Zesong's China Post strategic emerging industry,
In 2013, 2014, 2015, the market style was on the side of small-cap stocks, and this fund was heavily positioned in small-cap stocks, ranking in the top 20% for 3 consecutive years.
But after 2016, the market style switched from small to large market, and the fund began a long road down...
Author: Lazy Cat, Source: Lazy Cat's Harvest Day, Original Title: "Tell You a Little Secret, So Buy Fund Income at Least Double"
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