The total amount is "bursting"! In January, social financing and credit increments both set a record, what signal was released?

"The scale of [the new additions] all exceeded expectations, especially social finance." The recent RRR cuts and interest rate cuts have landed one after another, and the policy has been full of horsepower, and an industry analyst lamented to reporters that the financial data in January was "exploded".

According to statistics released by the central bank on February 10, the scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan in January, and RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, both of which hit a record single-month high. Broad money (M2) grew by 9.8% year-on-year, jumping 0.8 percentage points month-on-month.

The analysis believes that the increase in social financing and credit in January reached a new high, which not only has seasonal factors, but also the release of the effect of domestic increased policies to hedge the downward pressure on the economy. However, from the perspective of structure, residents and enterprises are "one cold and one hot". Among them, the more concerned personal housing loans (corresponding to medium- and long-term loans in the household sector) increased by 742.4 billion yuan in January, less than 944.8 billion yuan in the same period last year, "mainly because there is still a process of recovery in real estate demand." The analysis said. There is currently some disagreement in the industry as to whether the data will remain strong.

6 trillion+! The incremental scale of single-month social financing rushed to the top of the historical list

According to the data disclosed by the central bank, preliminary statistics show that the increase in the scale of social financing in January 2022 was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year. Compared with historical data, the increase in social financing in January hit a new high.

Who's pulling? Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy accounted for 68% of the increase in social financing, and the increase in credit in a single month was also the highest in history; government bonds and corporate bonds also increased significantly year-on-year, and the two increases together accounted for about 20% of the increase in social financing.

The issuance of local government special bonds compared with last year is the reason for the strong financing of government bonds, and for the credit with the highest contribution in social financing, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, analyzed that the sharp increase in credit in January was mainly driven by seasonal factors, stable growth policies and industrial enterprises.

"First, according to historical experience, banks often increase their credit investment at the beginning of the year, and early income, which generally accounts for a large proportion of the annual credit delivery quota; second, in order to hedge the downward pressure on the new economy, the country has strengthened counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policy coordination, released policy effects, and improved the financing needs of the real economy; third, this year's Spring Festival holiday has been placed relatively many years later in the past to advocate local festivals, which is conducive to the start of industrial enterprises and drives credit demand." Zhou Maohua said.

In addition, after the RRR cut (in December last year) and the interest rate cut policy (in January this year), the M2, which reflects the money supply, increased by 9.8% year-on-year, jumping by 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. However, due to the impact of the centralized payment of salaries and benefits by enterprises before the Spring Festival, the transfer of unit demand deposits to personal deposits led to a year-on-year decline in narrow currency (M1).

Residents and enterprises are "one cold and one hot", and the increase in personal housing loans has risen moderately

The overall data performance is strong, but from the structural point of view, residents and enterprises show "one cold and one hot". Household loans increased by 843 billion yuan in January, significantly lower than the incremental scale of 1.27 trillion yuan in January last year; enterprise (business) unit loans increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, higher than the incremental scale of 2.55 trillion yuan in January last year.

The Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter noted that the more concerned personal housing loans (corresponding to medium- and long-term loans in the household sector) increased by 742.4 billion yuan in January, although it increased from the last few months of last year, but it was still less than 944.8 billion yuan in the same period last year. In January, the reporter interviewed bank loan officers in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Zigong, Beihai and other regions, and most of them said that the mortgage line was "bloody" and the lending was accelerated.

Why is the January mortgage data only a modest rise? Zhou Maohua believes that residents' medium- and long-term loans are weak, mainly due to the recovery of real estate demand, there is still a process, with the domestic credit "correction" and the risk impact of individual housing enterprises gradually fading out, the supply and demand of the property market will gradually pick up. Hongze FICC analyst Shi Qi mentioned that the credit expansion of real estate is not particularly obvious at the sales end.

In addition, short-term loans to the household sector, which reflect residents' consumption needs, are still weak, while corporate investment is more optimistic. The analysis believes that in January, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased year-on-year, coupled with the gradual emergence of the effect of the domestic stable growth policy, the supply bottleneck, the pressure of raw materials and logistics costs, the tight power supply and other factors have eased, and the enterprises are optimistic about the economic prospects.

Will the data remain strong? The "economic bottom" is about to emerge?

After the total amount of financial data "exploded" in January, there was some disagreement in the industry on the outlook for the future market.

Zhou Maohua believes that it is expected that social financing and credit will continue to remain strong. First, the effect of domestic counter-cyclical and cross-cycle policies continues to appear, domestic RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, structural support tools, stable measures for commodity supply, and the recovery of domestic real estate market and infrastructure investment are expected to lead to a significant improvement in real credit demand; second, the issuance of local government special bonds is significantly pre-positioned compared with the same period last year, and the issuance of special bonds is expected to increase more year-on-year, and the base of special bond issuance in the first half of last year is relatively low; third, the impact of the epidemic on the global supply chain and shipping logistics shows signs of slowing.

Ifchui Macro Zhao Wei team believes that the "policy bottom" has been consolidated, the "three-step" of steady growth is underway, driving the gradual improvement of demand, and the "economic bottom" may soon appear.

However, Qin Han, chief analyst of fixed income at Guotai Junan Research Institute, believes that the financial data in January did improve, but the sustainability was questionable. In addition to the unexpected aggregate data, it is more important to pay attention to the economic downward pressure implied by structural deterioration, and the problem of poor transmission of money to credit still exists. The lack of endogenous financing needs in the entity has not improved significantly, which in turn means that the "impulse" relying on "window guidance" is difficult to sustain, and the time lag to boost the economy will be very long.

Beijing News shell financial reporter Cheng Weimiao Editor Xu Chao Proofreader Yang Xuli