On Thursday, the Shanghai index continued to oscillate higher, although there was a little disagreement in the intraday, but the overall situation was still in a strong state, and the daily line came out of four consecutive yangs. From the morphological point of view, the K line entity is small, indicating that although the rally has continued, but the momentum has weakened, which means that the divergence behind will increase, the strong pressure band above is near 3506-3536, if the volume cannot be further rebounded tomorrow, the small level trend will appear in the top blunt divergence structure (as shown in the figure below), which means that tomorrow's market divergence will further increase. However, from the perspective of the large cycle, the shock or fall here is still the correction in the upward trend, and the correction will continue to expand the space upwards. From the rhythm point of view, investors can choose a high point near the pressure band to cash in some of the pre-holiday low suck chips, and then wait for the fall before regaining the chips. This wave of spring markets will continue to expand further regardless of whether from the rising time or the upward space, and investors can pay attention to a good rhythm.
From the perspective of time, although the index fluctuated in a narrow range throughout the day on Thursday, the center of gravity still expanded upwards. Before analyzing this wave of rebound, look at 5-8 days, it is now the 4th day, tomorrow is the fifth day of the time node (as shown in the figure below), and it is expected that the divergence will further increase. Near 3536 is the location of the annual line, the short-term breakthrough probability is small, to prevent in the 3506-3536 area at any time to encounter resistance to fall. Investors pay attention to the good rhythm, but the spring market has begun, and there is still an opportunity to fall or retrace the dip.
From the perspective of funds, northbound funds showed a unilateral inflow trend today, with a final net inflow of 4.521 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 5.271 billion yuan and the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was -750 million. The index fluctuated slightly throughout the day and closed still above the 10-day line. The differentiation of different markets is still obvious, and the Shanghai main board still has the preference of northbound funds, which shows that the super main force is biased towards the low-level undervalued main board market. This also means that in the spring market, the main board market will have greater flexibility and is the main battlefield of funds, and investors should pay attention to changes in the style of this market. Of course, the continuous weak Shenzhen market, there will be opportunities for oversold rebound repair behind, investors should observe the rotational conversion phenomenon behind. Tomorrow continue to observe the movement of northbound funds.
On the disk, today's index has a shock differentiation, the Shanghai Composite Index has a narrow range around yesterday's closing price, and the ChiNext index has fallen sharply again. The pork sector opened stronger, followed by infrastructure, tourism, digital currency, electricity and other sectors have changed and moved, and the hot spots of the plate have shown the characteristics of rapid rotation. In terms of decline, the intraday decline of nearly 8% in the Ningde era led to a collective decline in new energy concept stocks, which is also one of the reasons for the sharp decline in the ChiNext index today. The CRO sector continued to fall, with WuXi AppTec down nearly 7%. In general, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and the ratio of rise and fall was about 1:2. Today's market is differentiated as scheduled, the index is also, the digital economy is also, the old infrastructure that is good is performing again today, but it is still optimistic about the new infrastructure, and differentiation is an opportunity. As for the aquaculture industry, today's performance is good, for the time being, it is an occasional change, and the three children can be properly concerned. Investors should grasp the main line of the market! Step on the rhythm, the spring market will also be interpreted in depth.
Cultural media, on the news side, according to the data of the lighthouse professional edition, as of 21:17 on February 9, the total box office of mainland cinema films (including pre-sales) in 2022 officially exceeded the mark of 10 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), taking 40 days, refreshing the record of the fastest annual box office in the history of Chinese films. In the context of steady growth in 2022, in addition to large infrastructure, large consumption will also be an important starting point, local and ministerial departments will also introduce relevant measures to promote domestic consumption in the follow-up, the relevant large consumption branches are expected to receive further attention to funds, investors can continue to pay attention to tracking the relevant direction.
Digital economy, on the news surface on the 8th, Chinese Min min bank, together with the State Administration for Market Regulation, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Securities Regulatory Commission, jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Development Plan for Financial Standardization" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning"). It clearly mentions that the development of legal digital currency standards should be steadily promoted. Comprehensively consider the security and trusted infrastructure, issuance system and storage system, registration center, payment transaction communication module, terminal application, etc., and explore the establishment and improvement of legal digital currency infrastructure standards. The digital economy belongs to the category of new infrastructure, in the context of stable economy, related branches will receive repeated attention from funds, from digital currency, to Internet finance, network security, Internet of Things and other directions, investors can tap related varieties.
The index fluctuated slightly on Thursday, but northbound funds flowed sharply, especially the continuous purchase of the Shanghai main board, which shows that the main battlefield of the spring market is the low-level undervalued main board market, and investors must keep up with this market style in time. Especially after yesterday's China Mobile rise and stop, it shows that in 2022, the blue chips that are underestimated in the context of stabilizing the economy will have rotational performance opportunities. Investors with low-level high-quality chips should continue to be patient and wait for the rotation opportunity. For the varieties that have recently risen continuously on the hand, you can appropriately choose the high point to reduce the weight, and adjusting the high for the low is the strategy behind.
Summary: The market continues to deduce in the shock differentiation, after the continuous rise of the Shanghai index has also come to a strong pressure zone, it is expected that tomorrow's divergence will still increase, investors should grasp the rhythm, operationally pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate, continuous rise will encounter resistance to fall, and the low rise will be smaller will make up for the rise. The weak Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext board will also have the opportunity to rebound from the oversold, and investors should pay attention to grasping the main line direction and rotation rhythm of the market. The core logic around market funds is still the superposition of low-level undervalued varieties and policy outlets. Investors should seize these characteristics, step on the rhythm of ups and downs, and deeply participate in the current spring market.
※ Risk Warning: The stock market has risk investment needs to be cautious; this view is for reference only, does not constitute operational advice, at your own risk!
This report is compiled and produced by Orient Gaosheng Investment Advisors and is based on publicly available information that is believed to be reliable, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information. In no event shall the information in this report or the opinions expressed constitute investment advice to any person. In no event shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising out of the use of any of the contents of this report. The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report reflect the Company's judgment as at the date of this report. At different times, a company may issue reports that are inconsistent with the information, opinions and speculation contained in this report.
Du Guangxi, investment advisory number: A0100621040004
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