Wu Zunyou: The global COVID-19 pandemic cannot end in March

"Judging from the characteristics of virus mutation and the two-year pattern of the new crown epidemic, the view that March became the key point in time for the end of the world pandemic of the new crown epidemic is not sufficiently based on science." Wu Zunyou, chief expert in epidemiology at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter.

On January 19, The Lancet, a top medical academic journal, published a paper by Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The paper predicts that the global pandemic of the new crown virus is coming to an end and That March will be a key point in time.

"I don't think the points expressed in this paper are very accurate. The author of the paper is a statistician and a top global expert in the field of mathematical models, who is not particularly well aware of biology and viruses. He made this hypothesis based on the flu. Wu Zunyou said that there are many differences between influenza and new crown, and the immunity maintenance time after infection with new crown is shorter than that of influenza, and the mutation of the new crown virus is very fast.

Omikron is not a "big flu"

Wu Zunyou stressed that The Omicron is not a "big flu", and the site of the Infection of TheOmilon is different from the flu, and the severity of the clinical symptoms it causes and the flu are also completely two levels. The site of infection of the influenza virus is the upper respiratory tract, while the site of infection of the new crown virus is the lower respiratory tract, and the proportion of symptoms of pneumonia is very high.

"In addition, the proportion of deaths caused by influenza is still relatively small. If it is regarded as a "big flu", it will dilute the epidemic situation, weaken people's attention to it, and be very unfavorable to epidemic prevention and control. Wu Zunyou said that the new crown vaccine has a certain protective effect, and after the vaccine is "bottomed", the infected person has a certain immunity, and the symptoms will be much lighter.

Wu Zunyou pointed out that the role played by vaccines in controlling the epidemic is huge. "The symptoms of infected people have decreased, and the number of cases requiring medical care or severe, critical or even death has been greatly reduced, which has reduced the burden of medical care." So vaccines are still our biggest 'weapon' in controlling COVID-19, including Omilon. ”

"Dynamic zeroing" is by far the best prevention and control method

"China's 'dynamic zeroing' policy has made the epidemic in China hundreds of times lower than the world average. Our country's epidemic prevention data is enough to prove that 'dynamic zeroing' is not only effective for epidemic prevention and control and reduction of death cases, but also very effective for social and economic development. ”

Wu Zunyou introduced that the number of people who have lost their lives due to the new crown epidemic in the world is very large, and the cumulative number of deaths due to the new crown in the United States alone has reached more than 920,000. If we don't find a new way to ensure that the virus doesn't spread widely after it is imported, and if there is no better way to control the outbreak, the strategy of dynamic zeroing will not be adjusted for the time being.

Editor-in-charge: Li Xiaoyi Hu Mengyao