"You say, how much more money do we have to lose to really earn tickets?"
Ten years ago, Didi and Kuaidi might have raised such questions.
Six or seven years ago, this may have been the confusion of Meituan takeaway and Hungry Mo.
In today's days, bad reviewers feel this line... It is just right to go to the fresh e-commerce represented by daily excellent fresh and Dingdong shopping.
Because in addition to those platforms backed by giants, using one word to describe the remaining fresh e-commerce, it can only be "difficult".
Casually search on the Internet, this side of the daily excellent fresh was exploded 3 years of loss of 7.6 billion, there Dingdong to buy vegetables and because of the rumors of the big layoffs caused heated discussion, the ten hui group announced the closure of multi-city business, prosperity and even cross-border sales of clothing... I can't find the good news.
Behind the miraculous abilities in the face of difficulties, in fact, the difficult scriptures of the family are different.
And today, the bad reviewer is also ready to talk about several representative platforms, take everyone to see what problems they have encountered in the recent hot fresh e-commerce.
First of all, as a representative of the pre-warehouse model, daily fresh and Dingdong shopping can be said to be the most representative.
All of you here should have many of their users.
The so-called front warehouse is actually a warehouse built between the city sorting center and you who placed the order. Shortening your distance from the dish through this warehouse allows the courier guy to deliver things to the door within an hour.
In addition to being fast, in theory, the front warehouse can also make the fresh food you buy fresher, and the platform can also reduce losses.
According to Daily Fresh, if the traditional grocery delivery, the fresh loss rate will be around 20% to 50%. Buy some green vegetables in the summer, and send them home may have several leaves.
But building a front warehouse near the community can solve this problem, because it is equivalent to building an ice warehouse at the door of the community. It is said that after using the front warehouse, the loss rate of fresh food will be reduced to 1%.
See here will definitely have bad friends will say, so look at the front warehouse model is not very good, sellers and users win-win! Come and go, hurry up a wave of daily excellent fresh and Dingdong to buy vegetables stocks, this must not rise and explode?
And the bad reviewers just want to say stop, look at the stock price of daily excellent fresh, everyone knows how the capital market views this model.
The stock price of Daily Fresh has fallen from about $11 at the beginning of the listing to $3 today, and 60% or 70% of the market value has evaporated.
What you have in mind is to be a friend of time, but reality will make you a hostage of time for a while.
And when the daily excellent fresh IPO that year, there were even remaining stocks that could engage in stored value winning activities.
The capital market is not waiting to see the daily excellent stocks, everyone should be able to talk a little bit about it. (If you are optimistic, you have long been robbed by large institutions, and there is not much room for ordinary users.) ）
And the main reason is that the front warehouse is really too expensive.
The two companies of Daily Fresh and Dingdong Grocery Shopping alone directly burned 20 billion tickets.
Take Dingdong to buy vegetables in the third quarter of the financial report as an example, storage rent, workers' wages and other expenses are as high as 2.3 billion yuan, accounting for almost 30% of the total expenditure, to know that as a vegetable selling company, the cost of fresh goods is only 5 billion.
More intuitively, some brokers have made estimates: on average, each 60 yuan list, the dingdong behind buying vegetables will have to pay about 10 yuan for the front warehouse.
The CEO of Hema spits that this model is stupid and heavy. You can also imagine that if there is no price subsidy, each single is about 10 yuan more expensive, will you still choose fresh e-commerce?
Therefore, the front warehouse model is "heavy assets" (front warehouse construction) + "labor-intensive" (courier brother and front warehouse personnel) in the eyes of many people.
"Not the Internet at all", "May burn money for another ten years and can't win profits" This is an important reason why many big guys are not optimistic about the front-end warehouse model.
If you don't burn money to subsidize, the price will be much higher than in the offline market, and there are probably not many people who are really willing to pay more for freshness and convenience.
If you continue to burn money to subsidize, you have not been able to find a way to make a profit, and if there is no new capital investment, you can only close the store and run. In this way, these fresh e-commerce companies in the front warehouse model seem to be in a bit of a dilemma.
Anyway, some have even begun to consider the side business of sharing bicycles.
But isn't sharing a bike a big sinkhole? Is this wave going into the tiger's den and into the wolf's mouth at the same time?
In addition to the fresh e-commerce of the front-end warehouse model, community group buying has also dropped a wave of temperature.
It is said that in the first two years, when the community group buying was the most popular, you can open a community group buying mini program at random, and you can see the dense self-pick-up points.
Many small convenience store owners and aunts of print shops are also the heads of multiple platforms, which is not busy for a while.
But behind the disorderly expansion, chaos also abounds.
Take the Ten HuiTuan invested by Ali as a chestnut, in order to fight a price war with the vegetable farmers and other platforms in the wet market, the price of vegetables on the Shihui Tuan at that time was often even lower than the cost price.
Many salesmen have become internal ghosts, they preemptively place orders for themselves, and then sell them to other suppliers or supermarkets to sell the wool of the platform.
When the state issued relevant policies to prohibit community group buying dumping and cool down community group buying, capital was also quiet, and after July last year, there was no financing event for community group buying during the year.
After financing became less and less, the Shihui Group also announced its withdrawal from many cities because it could not afford to burn money.
However, the Ten HuiTuan also left a place of chicken feathers, and various suppliers, storage fees, and transportation fees were owed to a place. It's hard to imagine what a mess this bubble would have left if it had been punctured later.
Prosperity Preferred, which was once in the limelight, also found the extra money of selling women's clothing outside the single community group buying business.
In the context of the state's rectification and capital investment, it is not so much that the community group buying has cooled down, but rather that the players of the community group purchase are more rational and the market is more orderly.
And meituan, JD.com, Pinduoduo, these are not bad money giants under the community group purchase, although the days are still OK, but also began to gradually tighten the pace of their own expansion.
Of course, I still remember the comment of the official media: "Don't just worry about the flow of a few bundles of cabbage and a few pounds of fruit, the sea of stars of scientific and technological innovation, and the infinite possibilities of the future are even more exciting."
And in the end, what the bad reviewer wants to say is that compared to those models that can be financed round after round, compared to models that can blow into one bubble after another, compared to those models that can set up a monopoly platform...
I always feel that the mode of being able to really eat it to bring convenience to everyone and not cutting people's leeks in reverse is the most practical and important.
And the dishes in the bowls of those fresh e-commerce platforms this winter are not only not fragrant enough, but may also be a little cold.
Author: Jiang Jiang Editor: Surface cover: XuanXuan
Images, sources:
1. People's information, "cross-border" selling women's clothing, huge losses and layoffs, shutdown of bankruptcy Fresh e-commerce really want to be "cool"?
2. iResearch Consulting, Research Report on China's Fresh E-commerce Industry
3. Titanium technology, community group buying cooling: small and medium-sized players withdrew, giants also began to shrink| 2021 · annual big review
4. Eleven people in finance, Ali has a heavy position and raises more than 1 billion US dollars, why did the ten groups explode?