Source: Visual China
Author 丨 Sun Yu
Editor 丨 Kang Xiao
Produced by 丨Shenwang Tencent News Xiaoman Studio
Ten thousand yuan bill, buying and eating, and the KFC blind box that quickly goes out of the circle may become the last straw that overwhelms the camel.
Recently, the first relevant regulations on blind boxes in China were introduced in Shanghai. The "Shanghai Blind Box Business Activity Compliance Guidelines" stipulates that the unit price of blind boxes does not exceed 200 yuan, special foods, drugs, live animals, etc. shall not be sold in the form of blind boxes, the proportion of hidden money should be clearly indicated, merchants shall not repurchase blind boxes to participate in the secondary market, and a support mechanism should be set up, and blind boxes shall not be sold to minors under 8 years of age.
At the same time, the Guidelines also clearly point out the definition of blind boxes for the first time, that is, the business model of business operators who sell goods (including services) within a specific range of goods (including services) in a random way by consumers without informing them of the specific model, style or service content and provision method of the goods in advance, including the Internet, physical stores, vending machines and other sales forms.
A tide play practitioner told the "Deep Net" that in recent years, the domestic tide play industry has developed rapidly due to the influence of blind boxes, "In fact, there are some scattered regulations on blind boxes everywhere, but Shanghai has always been considered a vane of the entertainment industry, and the compliance guidelines introduced this time are relatively detailed, which may trigger follow-up in other regions." ”
The two participants in the KFC blind box incident are experiencing the biggest dilemma in recent years: the rise of the healthy food trend, KFC from a high-end fast food brand to a gradual consumer crusade; Bubble Mart started out of the blind box, to get out of the blind box dilemma, but in its own IP slow progress.
After the relevant regulations are introduced one after another, the fiery momentum of the blind box model may be curbed. But can eliminating blind boxes stop consumers or buyers from hyping?
Not long ago, even without the blessing of the blind box, the price of one of Li Ning's sneakers increased by 31 times after being hyped by speculators, and the price of many commodities known as the top class last year rose by 5 times or even 10 times. In addition, Hanfu, building block bears and even the former Tibetan mastiffs and walnuts are all speculators who have fallen into price madness after entering.
Although the trend of "everything can be blind box" will eventually go cold, for speculators, "everything can be hyped" will never be out of date.
KFC's $10,000 bill
What caused fierce controversy in the industry was the joint blind box package launched by KFC and Bubble Mart a few days ago. According to the "Deep Web", the package priced at 99 yuan includes: 3 Pepsi Small Coke, Small French Fries, Old Beijing Chicken Rolls, Spicy Chicken Leg Fort, 5 golden chicken nuggets and 2 Portuguese egg tarts.
A relevant person familiar with catering and KFC told the "Deep Web" that the package provided by KFC itself is not low in cost performance, and the price of the food itself is more reasonable, "the 39.5 yuan casual meal promoted by KFC daily can be doubled to get 2 Chinese Coke, two large fries, an old Beijing chicken roll, a spicy chicken leg fort, two Portuguese egg tarts, plus 5 golden chicken nuggets with a price of 12 yuan, the total price is 91 yuan, which is similar to the price of the 99 package." ”
What induces the rush is not the regular meal, but the more than 260,000 blind boxes that are sold with the limited edition of the package. According to the information released by KFC, the Dimoo series of blind boxes has a total of 7 images, including 6 regular models and 1 hidden model, and the images are built around KFC meals.
"There are only 36 package quotas in a store, and you definitely can't buy them now." Only a few hours after the event was launched, a KFC staff member of TiantongYuan replied to the "Deep Web", "It sold out in less than 1 hour." According to its introduction, the probability of the hidden version of the blind box is 1:72, and every two stores can only produce a hidden model, "There are some on-site demolitions that have not been removed from the hidden money, and I don't know if there is one to bring back." ”
A consumer who participated in the event told the "Deep Web" that "I went to the queue very early, but in the end I didn't grab it, and many people in front of me bought 6 packages at a time, and there was no more before they arrived at me." ”
In order to get hidden models, activities such as scalpers and substitute eating began to emerge, and the topic of "substitute eating" was once on Weibo's hot search. On some social platforms, some consumers even posted a bill of 10,000 yuan: a one-time purchase of 106 packages of 10,494 yuan, just to draw hidden money.
However, many relevant people have told the "Deep Web" that eating is just a gimmick, "I pay strangers to eat, but also pay for the other party to send the blind box, it is better to invite friends to eat." A Beijing blind box enthusiast told "Deep Web", "Most people will still choose to give the lunch box to a friend, or leave it in the refrigerator to eat slowly." ”
More uneaten lunch boxes are still sent directly to the garbage dump, which is difficult not to think of last year's talent show on a platform, where fans can buy a certain milk drink from the sponsor and use the voting card inside to vote. At that time, some netizens posted an exposure video, the whole carton of milk was opened and poured into the gutter, and there was a whole wall of milk waiting to be poured behind it.
After the public opinion of KFC blind boxes fermented, the China Consumers Association quickly responded that KFC used limited blind boxes to induce and connive consumers to irrationally over-purchase food packages. At the same time, the China Consumers Association also said that consumers are willing to spend money for interest, but this interest should not be based on material waste, especially food waste.
New marketing under the big health trend
In fact, foreign fast food represented by KFC and McDonald's has always been very good at matching dolls to do related marketing activities, and many of its toys have been loved by consumers. But this time to induce a public opinion backlash, perhaps the biggest challenge facing the fast food industry such as KFC, blind boxes are hot but catering is cold.
In recent years, the concept of health has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and KFC's once most profitable products, such as fries, cola and even hamburgers, are no longer sought after by many consumers under the trend of great health.
Despite KFC's continuous efforts in terms of health and localization, such as the launch of the plant meat burger, the golden chicken nuggets of plant meat, as well as the former fritters, rice, and later snail powder, fried sauce noodles, but the super giant still faces consumer loss and profit margin decline and other difficulties.
According to the third quarter report of KFC parent company Yum China in fiscal 2021, Yum Group's adjusted net profit in the third quarter fell by 63% year-on-year, and same-store sales fell by 7% compared with the same period last year, of which KFC and Pizza Hut fell by 8% and 5% respectively. In the third quarter of 2021, KFC's operating profit fell by 31% year-on-year, and the profit margin fell to 12.2% from 18.6% in the same period last year.
However, contrary to other large restaurant chain brands that are accustomed to closing stores, KFC has chosen a more aggressive store opening strategy. The financial report also shows that Yum China opened a total of 524 new stores in the third quarter of 2021, of which 362 new KFC brands were added. As of the end of the third quarter of 2021, there were 7,908 KFC restaurants.
Diversified marketing methods may be a great weapon for KFC to recapture young people, and After the earnings report, Yum China CEO Qu Cuirong said, "We have strengthened preferential promotions and product innovation, digital channels allow us to reach members faster through targeted promotions, and are expected to open more than 1,700 new stores in 2021." ”
A person in the marketing industry told DeepNet that behind this marketing event is KFC's in-depth operation of the membership model. According to the "Deep Web", in addition to buying a package, you can also draw the "end box" qualification through KFC's 38 yuan god card, that is, buy a set of 6 different blind boxes at a price of 399 yuan per day, and have the opportunity to draw hidden money.
According to the data, at present, haidilao, Xibei, Starbucks and other well-known head catering brands have long carried out membership marketing, of which the KFC parent company Yum has more than 200 million members. The person introduced to the "Deep Net" that with the popularity of Costco and Sam in China in recent years, the paid membership model is also being imitated by various formats.
"In addition to the simplest preferential model, you can also carry out circle marketing through the membership model. Now catering marketing and even the marketing of the entire consumer industry are mainly aimed at two pain points, the first is to seize the preferences of young people, and the second is to seize the sharing and dissemination of social media. ”
Sliding bubble Mart
"It's not surprising that it's selling out." Ou Licheng, a tide play media person familiar with Bubble Mart, told "Deep Web" in this way. According to the information learned by "Deep Web", the category of cooperation between Bubble Mart and KFC is one of its six ace products with sales of more than 100 million yuan in the first half of 2021, when it surpassed the super IP Molly that promoted Bubble Mart's start-up, with sales reaching 205 million yuan.
In recent years, bubble mart, which has been extremely popular, was actually established in 2010, and initially focused on fashion retail, but has been tepid. In 2015, Bubble Mart introduced a blind box model that was already very mature in Japan, and then signed Molly's IP exclusive licensing agreement, which made a big name.
However, many industry insiders, including the relevant person in charge of Bubble Mart, have told the "Deep Web" that the blind box is not the only factor in the rise of Bubble Mart, "The rise of trend toys has been a major trend in recent years, coupled with the fact that Bubble Mart has also introduced a large amount of capital, quickly opened offline stores, and leveraged the market through self-service vending machines and other models." Ou Licheng said to the "Deep Web".
Bubble Mart prospectus does show that from 2017 to 2019 after the introduction of the blind box model and the big IP, bubble Mart's net profit increased from 1.56 million yuan to 451 million yuan, an increase of nearly 300 times, and the gross profit margin rose from 47.6% in 2017 to 64.8%, becoming the largest trendy toy company in China.
In 2020, Bubble Mart went public in Hong Kong, and its market value reached HK$106.5 billion (US$13.7 billion) on the first day of listing.
On January 1, 2021, at the Jinyuan Lufthansa Shopping Center in Beijing, a row of brands playing blind box vending machines read "Life is like a blind box, never know what the next second is." Source: Visual China
Bubble Mart's most proud blind box model soon planted a heel, shortly after the listing, that is, consumers issued a statement that they suspected the secondary sale of blind boxes, and then Bubble Mart admitted that the situation was true, the problem of secondary sale of blind boxes was exposed, and the company's stock price also fell sharply.
Regarding the ultimate goal of Bubble Mart, founder Wang Ning once described the future: "In five years, we may be the most Disney-like company in China, and it will become a large group with multiple IPs." ”
However, Bubble Mart has not yet found a mature way to operate its own IP outside the blind box model, and bubble Mart has admitted in the prospectus that it relies too much on a single IP, "The explosive product Molly is crucial to finances, and it cannot be guaranteed that it can develop and find IP alternatives that are similar to Molly." ”
Data show that in 2019, Molly alone contributed 450 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 26% of the company's total revenue. At present, among the other IP operated by Bubble Mart, except for the relatively stable sales of Dimo, which cooperated with KFC this time, other self-owned IP sales are not good. At the beginning of 2020, Bubble Mart's own product Avery Rabbit series was accused of plagiarism, and was quickly removed from the shelves through omni-channels and refunded and recalled the products sold.
Bubble Mart shares have fallen to around HK$42 from a high of HK$107 on February 17, 2017.
Blind boxes are hard to run
Suddenly, like a spring breeze, a blind box of thousands of trees opened. In the 1990s, the collection card marketing represented by the small raccoon crisp noodles appeared, which was the prototype of China's blind box. But then the blind box model fell silent in China, and even many years later, some people reflected on the madness of the time. Until around 2015, a group of companies represented by Bubble Mart improved Japan's mature gacha model and introduced a large IP + blind box model, and the blind box boom rose again in China, and there was even a saying that "everything can be blind box".
In the past two years, due to the impact of the epidemic, international logistics has been restricted, which has significantly increased the transaction volume between domestic players.
On December 24, 2021, in front of the blind box vending machine in the celebrity shopping mall on Nanjing Road Pedestrian Street in Shanghai, a number of young people were selecting blind box goods. (Source: Visual China)
Ou Licheng told the "Deep Web" that there are two major reasons for the appearance of blind boxes, "first of all, the quality of goods is similar, which will bring different degrees of surprises; secondly, the premium brought about by limited production." ”
Chen Wei, co-founder and CEO of 52toys, a well-known domestic fashion play brand, once told the "Deep Web" that another major reason for the trend toys that take the blind box as an opportunity to become popular in China in recent years is that the post-90s and post-95s who are willing to spend money on hobbies and interests have begun to have their own economic resources.
"In the past decade or so, China's logistics, e-commerce, Internet, information and other industries have developed rapidly, making consumers' understanding of the tide play industry very convenient. It's a market that has been formed for decades in the U.S. and Japan, but China will be very fast. ”
The most important factor driving the development of blind boxes is still uncertainty and hidden models that may bring high returns, thus catering to the user's "gambler psychology", "this is determined by the dopamine produced by the human brain, as long as it is small and large, it will make people feel happy." ”
Low investment, high returns, so that a large number of speculators began to pour into the industry. On second-hand platforms such as Idle Fish, the price of the scarce model of the blind box is often several times higher than the price, and some senior players even told the "Deep Web", "Many blind box brands will personally go down and speculate on the price." ”
Taking the KFC blind box as an example, the price of the full set of blind boxes (6 models) on the idle fish ranges from 500 yuan to 800 yuan, and the hidden blind box is fried to 700 yuan. Even online, the supply of blind boxes is far greater than that of offline stores. As of the publication of "Deep Net", the sales of this series of blind boxes on the idle fish platform have never stopped, and even many sellers claim that they have many sets.
The price of the KFC blind box on the salted fish ranges from 500-800, and the picture shows a screenshot of the salted fish
However, the recent boom for blind boxes is dissipating, and the core advantages of blind boxes are invisibility and randomness, but this is also the biggest problem in the industry: a large number of complaints point to poor product quality, uneven quality, and even blind boxes in some industries are considered to be cleaning inventory at high prices.
Despite this, the tide play industry behind the blind box is still in a period of vigorous development, Chen Wei told the "Deep Web" that the blind box is only the entry level of the tide play, "the early players will be because the unit price is not high, the size of the blind box has an interest in the tide play, but as the player understands the tide play more and more deeply, the blind box can not meet the demand." ”
After the introduction of relevant regulations in Shanghai, Bubble Mart quickly responded, "A healthy and orderly tide play market is not only conducive to protecting the rights and interests of consumers, but also creates a good development space for Bubble Mart." ”
According to the enterprise investigation data, there are more than 4.91 million toy-related enterprises and more than 3,000 tide play-related enterprises nationwide. Among them, in 2020, 572 new mainland tide play enterprises were added, an increase of 15% year-on-year.
For entrepreneurs in the tide play industry, the tide play market is still in a period of rapid development, and there are no super giants. According to the New Era Securities Research Report, the current compound annual growth rate of the trend toy market is 34.6%, and it will still maintain a high-speed growth rate of more than 20% in the next 5 years. According to Frost & Sullivan data, Bubble Mart's market share in China's tide play market in 2019 was 8.5%, followed by two to three brands with a market share of 7.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
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