World Cup Qualifiers Asia Top 12 will rekindle the war on the 27th, this competition cycle, the Chinese men's football team has two key matches, the first is away to Japan, after playing the match with Japan, immediately rushed to Vietnam, prepare for the match with the Vietnamese men's football team. In fact, after the first 6 rounds of competition, China only got 5 points, ranking fifth in the group, Li Tie bid farewell to the national football post with various controversies, and finally Li Xiaopeng took the hot potato to lead the team to continue to move forward, but the situation was not particularly optimistic. Below we directly combine the current ranking and the future schedule to analyze the prospect of qualifying for the top 12 of the national football team.
At present, Saudi Arabia ranks first in the group with 5 wins and 1 draw and 16 points; Japan ranks second in the group with 12 points from 4 wins and 2 losses; Australia ranks third in the group with 11 points from 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss; Oman ranks fourth in the group with 7 points with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses; China ranks fifth in the group with 5 points from 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses, and Vietnam has been out of the group for 6 consecutive defeats. The Chinese men's football team has four opponents left, playing Japan away at 18:00 on January 27, Vietnam at 8:00 pm on February 1, home against Saudi Arabia on March 24, and Oman away on March 29. If you can't grasp the next two away games, then the last two games will not make any sense.
First of all, if the Chinese team qualifies in the third place of the group, the road ahead will be very tortuous, and the winner of the third place of the two groups in the Asian region will compete with the fifth place in the South American region for the play-off ticket, and the opponent may be the opponent of Uruguay and Chile, in other words, there is little hope! Since the last World Cup, after the AFC reformed the World Cup qualifiers into the round of 12, the South Korean team once won the second qualifying group with 15 points, which is already the minimum standard, in other words, if the Chinese team really wants to impact the World Cup, the next four games can not be lost. Counting the match with Vietnam, the Chinese team only has 8 points when it gets 3 points, that away to Japan, home to Saudi Arabia, away to Oman, the Chinese team must strive to win.
Assuming that the Chinese team wins all 4 games in the next 4 games, win Japan, win Vietnam, win Saudi Arabia, win Oman, then the Chinese team will get 17 points, for the Japanese team, then they can not play more than 4 points in addition to playing China, there is this possibility, and Australia draws, loses to Saudi Arabia, wins Vietnam; and for Australia, because the national football team faces them when 1 draw and 1 loss, so the Chinese team wants to be second in the group, then Australia can not take more than 5 points in the next 4 games, draw Japan, and Vietnam's three points are pocketed. Only hope can be pinned on Oman and Saudi Arabia to stop them. In this ideal situation, Saudi Arabia ranks first with 25 points, China ranks second in the group with 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, Japan ranks third with 17 points (goal difference disadvantage), and Australia ranks fourth with 16 points.
Assuming that the Chinese team will win 3 wins and 1 draw in the future 4 games, then the Chinese team will eventually get 15 points, at this time it is complicated, the Japanese team can not take more than 3 points, which means that they may lose to Vietnam or be forced to draw by Vietnam, while Australia accumulates 11 points, the remaining 4 games can not exceed 4 points, 3 draws and 1 loss or 1 win and 3 losses, but they have direct confrontation with the Japanese team, so in this case, expect them to play a tacit draw, while planting a head on the weak brigade, it is unlikely to happen. And the Chinese team may be squeezed into third place without an advantage in the confrontation. To put it simply, since Vietnam is a points boy, this leads to the Chinese team to surpass Japan and Australia in 3 games, which is difficult to imagine.
If the Chinese team wins 4 games, 3 wins and 1 loss, and finally gets 14 points, it is basically to compete for the third place in the group, if it loses to Japan, Japan will reach 15 points, they basically qualify in advance, expecting Australia to get only 3 points in the next 4 games, and the Chinese team to play a goal difference advantage, the difficulty can be imagined, Saudi Arabia and Oman will help the Chinese team? Secondly, if the Chinese team wins Japan, but loses to Oman or Saudi Arabia, it will also require Japan not to get more than 3 points in the last 3 games, and it is also impossible for Australia to get more than 4 points in 4 games! And with Saudi Arabia out of the qualifiers ahead of schedule, they should no longer play the role of roadblocks.
If the Chinese team only wins 2 in the last 4 games, it will be 13 points at most (5 points + 2 wins and 2 draws), and at present, Australia has 11 points and Japan has 12 points, expecting Vietnam to win their two teams in a row, it is a dream. In other cases, the Chinese team is even more unable to qualify.
So the next situation is very clear, or for the Chinese men's football team, the situation is more severe, want to retain the hope of qualifying, the 27th away team japan, must strive to win, and even say that to score more goals, to show the courage to break the boat. Although Luo Guofu's next suspension, Alain's state is not particularly good, maybe the midfield can only rely on our local players, but including Wu Lei, Xu Xin, Zhang Yuning and other people have also shown a good state, Li Xiaopeng coached to let Chinese fans have a good year, to play their own momentum, just like the previous draws with Australia and Oman, we all have a chance to win. Of course, if you lose to Japan, it is impossible to expect Australia to only get 3 points in the next 4 games, which means that the Chinese men's football team is out of the game in advance!