According to information from the organizing committee of the 2026 US-Canada-Mexico World Cup, FIFA was initially scheduled to hold a group draw ceremony for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers on all continents in late July this year. The Chinese team will most likely participate in the second stage of the Asian zone as the second tier.
Ranked according to 7.20
In previous World Cup qualifiers, because the Asian zone was launched one year earlier than other continents, the AFC launched the Asian qualifiers separately in advance under the supervision of FIFA, such as the first and second phase of the group draw ceremony in the Asian zone of the World Cup Qualifiers in Russia in April 2015, while FIFA only conducted the qualifying group draw ceremony for other continents in December 2015; In the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, AFC also held a group draw for the first phase of the tournament in April 2019, followed by a group draw for the second stage in July of the same year, and FIFA only held a group draw ceremony for other continents at the end of the year.
With the 2026 World Cup to be fully expanded, the number of seats on all continents will be fully increased, in order to facilitate coordination and unification, FIFA after consultation with the continental football federations and the organizing committee of the tripartite World Cup, decided to hold a group draw ceremony in late July 2023. This is mainly because the current qualifying group draws on all continents are based on the latest world rankings of national and regional teams, which FIFA will publish on April 6 and July 20 this year, according to FIFA's plan. In this way, the latest ranking of the national teams of the countries and regions of the world on July 20 will become the principle of slotting in the draw of the World Cup qualifiers on all continents. It's only normal to schedule the qualifying group draw for late July.
According to the Asian qualifier plan previously submitted by the AFC, the 2026 World Cup Asian qualifier will be divided into five stages. The first phase is scheduled for October 2023; The second stage, the round of 36 (equivalent to the top 40 of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups), is scheduled to start in November this year, and a group draw ceremony will be held in late July this year, and the grouping of the two stages of the competition will be considered more reasonable and scientific from any point of view.
The national football team goes straight to the round of 36
According to the Asian Zone competition plan previously submitted by the AFC, the 2026 World Cup Asian Qualifiers and the 2027 Asian Cup Qualifiers will still be "one in one", that is, the first and second stages of the World Qualifiers will also be the first and second stages of the 2027 Asian Cup Qualifiers.
In the first phase of the World Qualifiers and Asian Cup Qualifiers, according to FIFA's latest rankings, the bottom 22 teams of the 47 AFC member associations will play home and away knockout matches first. [Since there has been no clearer statement on whether the Russian Football Association will eventually participate in the Asian qualifiers, the Russian team's participation in the Asian qualifiers is not considered for the time being.] 】
According to the current rankings of national teams around the world and regions announced by FIFA in December 2022, the 11 teams ranked 26th to 36th will become first-tier seeded teams, and the remaining 11 teams will become second-tier non-seeded teams, as follows (the numbers in parentheses after the team name are the current world rankings):
First grade: Hong Kong (146), Kuwait (148), Indonesia (151), Yemen (154), Afghanistan (155), Maldives (156), Chinese Taipei (157), Myanmar (159), Singapore (160), Nepal (175), Cambodia (177);
Second Tier: Macau (182), Mongolia (183), Bhutan (185), Laos (187), Brunei (190), Bangladesh (192), Pakistan (195), Timor-Leste (197), Guam (205), Sri Lanka (207, temporarily suspended by FIFA), Northern Mariana Islands (non-FIFA member).
One team from each bracket will be drawn to form a team and will play a home-and-away match on October 12 and 17 this year, with the winner advancing to the second stage of the round of 36. It should be noted that the Sri Lankan Football Federation is currently subject to FIFA's suspension of membership, and if the ban cannot be lifted before the draw in late July, it will lose its qualification, and the top team will directly advance to the second stage of the competition, and the remaining teams will still draw lots to play against each other. Although the Northern Mariana Islands team is not a member of FIFA and is not eligible to participate in the World Preliminary Round, it is an official member of the AFC and registered for the Asian Cup Qualifiers, and the World Qualifiers and the Asian Cup Qualifiers are combined into one, so they play normally.
The national team participates in the second bracket
The 11 teams that win the first stage will qualify for the second round of 36, with two teams having the honor of being the third tier and the other nine teams being the fourth tier team. The second round of 36 will be divided into nine groups of 4 teams in each group, playing a double round-robin of home and away. The top two with the highest points in each group will qualify for the Round of 18 of the third stage (equivalent to the Round of 12 of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups).
Similarly, according to the current ranking of national teams from all countries and regions around the world announced by FIFA in December 2022, the Chinese team is currently ranked 11th in Asia, with 1305.06 technical points. Oman, who participated in the Gulf Cup in January and finished runner-up, currently has 1,329.72 technical points. The Chinese team is 24.66 points away from the ninth place Oman in Asia, so it is likely to only participate as the second tier. In the 2018 and 2022 World Cup qualifiers, the Chinese team participated in the draw as the first-grade seeded team in the second stage of the tournament, and finally qualified for the round of 12. In the previous 2014 and 2010 World Cup qualifiers, the Chinese team participated in the second stage group draw as a second-tier team, and all of them missed the subsequent third stage top ten.
The tranches of the Round of 36 in the second phase are as follows:
First Tier: Japan (20), Iran (24), South Korea (25), Australia (27), Saudi Arabia (49), Qatar (60), Iraq (68), UAE (70), Oman (75);
Second gear: Uzbekistan (77), China (80), Jordan (84), Bahrain (85), Syria (90), Palestine (93), Kyrgyz (94), Vietnam (96), Lebanon (100);
Third Tier: India (106), Tajikistan (108), Thailand (111), North Korea (112), Philippines (134), Turkmen (135), Malaysia (145), First Stage Winner (two teams);
Fourth Tier: Stage 1 Winner (Nine Teams).
Of course, because there are two national team competition windows designated by FIFA in March and June this year, national teams of various countries and regions will use this to arrange international A competitions, and there will be at least 4 matches, so when FIFA announces the latest national and regional national team world rankings on July 20, the rankings of individual teams may change, and the classification will also change, for example, Malaysia's current ranking is 25th in Asia, and FIFA is ranked 142nd. The technical points are 1071.99 points; Hong Kong, China's current ranking is 26th in Asia and 146th in FIFA, with 1062.39 technical points. If Hong Kong can win and get enough points in the next two FIFA national team competition windows, and Malaysia loses points in consecutive losses, Hong Kong China has a chance to overtake the Malaysian team and directly participate in the second stage of the round of 36, while the Malaysian team has to participate in the first stage of the knockout round.
According to the competition schedule of the Round of 36 previously announced by the AFC, the playing time and situation of the Chinese team in the Round of 36 are as follows:
November 16, 2023 Third Tier Team vs China
November 21, 2023 China vs First Tier Team
March 21, 2024 Fourth Tier Team vs China
March 26, 2024 China vs Tier 4 team
June 6, 2024 China vs Third Tier Team
June 11, 2024 First Tier Team vs China
Judging from the above classification, once the Chinese men's football team encounters one of the six Qatari World Cup teams, and then encounters opponents such as Tajikistan, North Korea or Thailand in the third bracket, the qualification situation for the entire round of 36 will be quite grim. Moreover, judging from the schedule, the last home game at the end of the year, on November 21, will play the first-tier seeded team, even if it is an opponent like Iraq, Oman or the United Arab Emirates, China may not be sure of winning at home, let alone if it is one of the six World Cup teams. After this match, the Chinese men's national team will regroup to prepare for the Asian Cup in Qatar. Of course, if you can win such a strong opponent at home, it will undoubtedly score a "shot in the arm" for Chinese football, and it will undoubtedly greatly boost morale for Chinese football, which is currently at a low ebb.
The round of 18 was played separately from the Asian Preliminary Round
If the Chinese team can finish second in the group and qualify in the second round of 36, the Chinese team has already obtained a ticket to the 2027 Asian Cup in Saudi Arabia in advance, and will participate in the third stage of the World Preliminary Round of 18. The round of 18 will be divided into three groups, each with six teams, and the top two teams in each group will directly qualify for the 2026 World Cup; The third and fourth place teams in each group will advance to the fourth stage of the play-offs. In the fourth stage, the six teams will be divided into two groups of three teams each, and the first place in each group will become the seventh and eighth World Cup teams in the Asian zone; The second place in both groups plays a play-off to compete for qualification for the fifth stage of the transcontinental play-offs.
The teams that did not qualify for the Round of 18 of the World Cup Qualifiers will participate in the third phase of the 2027 Asian Cup Qualifiers, with a total of 24 teams competing in six groups of 4 teams each, playing home-and-away matches. The first place in each group will result in a total of 6 teams that will qualify for the final stage of the Asian Cup. The six-team teams, plus those competing in the round of 18 (including host Saudi Arabia), will play in the final stage of the 19th Asian Cup in Saudi Arabia in January 2027.
If China misses the round of 18, it will have to participate in this third stage of qualifiers and struggle to qualify for the 2027 Asian Cup. For Chinese football at present, the situation is still quite grim.
![Nearly 50 tickets! FIFA has imposed heavy fines and violence has risen in global competitions[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)