On May 23, news came from the AFC that following the draw ceremony for the 2023 Asian Cup final stage in Doha, Qatar on May 11, the 2027 Asian Cup Qualifiers and 2026 World Qualifiers Asian Zone 1st and 2nd Stage Group Draw Ceremony will be held on July 27. According to the competition regulations and international rankings, the Chinese team will directly participate in the second stage of the tournament, that is, the round of 36, and the national football team will most likely participate in this draw as the second tier team.
According to the AFC's competition plan for each series of events announced by the AFC in August last year, the 2027 Asian Cup Qualifiers Stages 1 and 2 will be merged with the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers 1 and 2 Asian Stage Competition, similar to the 2023 Asian Cup Qualifiers merged with some stages of the Asian Zone of the Qatar World Qualifiers. However, due to the expansion of the 2026 World Cup finals, the merging details of the qualifiers of the two competitions have changed.
According to the plan, the draw ceremony for the Stage 1 and Phase 2 qualifiers will be held on July 27, and the ceremony will be co-hosted by FIFA and AFC. The classification of teams at each stage is based on the latest ranking of men's soccer teams (national teams) of FIFA member associations released on July 20. The main concern of Chinese fans is, of course, the results of the Phase 2 group draw. According to FIFA's official website, the Chinese team is currently ranked 81st in the world and 11th in the AFC.
A total of 36 teams will compete in the Asian Stage 2 of the 2026 World Qualifiers, evenly distributed in 9 groups of 4 teams, with the top two teams from each group reaching the Round of 18 of Stage 3. This means that a total of 9 teams are seeded in this stage. According to the FIFA international ranking point calculation method, even if the Chinese team wins the two international A warm-up matches in June against Myanmar and Palestine, which are ranked lower than their own team, it will be difficult to obtain enough points to achieve a reverse overtake of Oman and Uzbekistan in front of the team. Therefore, the Chinese team is likely to participate in the draw at this stage as the second tier team, and has a higher chance of encountering strong teams such as Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Australia.
After the second stage of the qualifiers, the remaining stages of the World Qualifiers and Asian Cup qualifiers will be held independently. The teams in the round of 18 are divided into 3 groups according to the FIFA rankings, and each group is determined by a double round-robin system of home and away, and the top two teams in each group have a total of 6 teams directly in the 2026 World Cup finals. The 3rd and 4th teams in each group will participate in the 4th stage of the World Preliminary Round, and the 6 teams will be divided into 2 groups for a single round-robin group stage according to the centralized system, and the top teams in each group will also receive a ticket to the World Cup finals. The 2nd place team in each group will go through one play-off to produce the 9th place in the Asian qualifier and compete for a ticket to the World Cup in the transcontinental play-offs.
The teams that did not qualify for the Asian Zone Round of 18 of the World Qualifiers will participate in the third stage of the 2027 Asian Cup Qualifiers, with a total of 24 teams participating. They are divided into 6 groups of 4 teams and compete in a home-and-away, double round-robin format. The top finishers in each group will qualify for the final stage of the Asian Cup.
Text/Beiqing Sports Xiao Zhao