preface:
In the capital market on the eve of the Spring Festival in 2022, unlike previous years, the concept of pre-made dishes has become one of the hottest tracks this winter.
Online and offline prefabricated dishes sales are in full swing, the capital market pre-sized pre-made vegetable industry chain enterprises have sprung up like mushrooms, Xibei Chairman Jia Guolong released a bold investment of 2 billion yuan to engage in prefabricated dishes, and then Luckin Coffee founder Lu Zhengyao intends to enter the prefabricated vegetable track through the "tip of the tongue workshop", and more and more securities companies are singing well for the prefabricated vegetable track.
In this context, the themes and concept stocks related to A-share pre-selection dishes, regardless of 3721, listed companies stained with "pre-made dishes" rose first, and speculation was high.
So, in the current era of stock price heroism, who is the most popular among the pre-selected concept stocks? In addition, who are the participants in the pre-made vegetable track?
Prefabricated vegetables are in full swing, each showing its own magic
In the opening chapter of the previous prefabricated dish topic, Caihua She has pointed out that the prefabricated vegetable industry is still in the early stage of development, and there are many prefabricated vegetable subdivisions, covering agriculture, vegetables, livestock, poultry, aquatic products and other subdivisions, the market participants are numerous and relatively scattered, and the market concentration is not high. It can be said that at present, the prefabricated vegetable industry is showing a format of hundreds of boats competing for thousands of sails.
It should be noted that at present, the prefabricated vegetable industry has a national, omni-channel, full-series of prefabricated vegetable leading enterprises, and has not yet appeared. Known as the "first share of pre-made dishes" flavor zhixiang (605089. SH), which is nothing more than a regional prefabricated vegetable company. As of 2020, nearly 96% of Weizhixiang's revenue source is east China.
At present, there is no standard classification and definition of prepared dishes in China, nor is there a standardized guideline for the industry division of prepared dishes. In this regard, Caihua News Agency roughly sorted out the current brokerage research report, and roughly divided the participants in the prepared dish into five categories:
First, there are a number of enterprises specializing in prefabricated dishes, such as Weizhixiang, Steaming and Boiling, Cong Kitchen, and Zhenwei Xiaomeiyuan; second, the listed enterprises of agriculture, animal husbandry and aquatic products represented by Shengnong Development, Guolian Aquatic Products, Longda Cuisine, and Delis; third, the listed enterprises of quick-cold food represented by Anjing Food, Sanquan Food, and Qianwei Central Kitchen; fourth, chain catering enterprises represented by Xibei, Haidilao, Zhen Kung Fu, Yoshinojia, and Quanjude; fifth, hema fresh, Dingdong grocery shopping, daily excellent fresh, etc.; fourth, chain catering enterprises represented by Xibei, Haidilao, Zhen Kung Fu, Yoshinoya, and Quanjude; fifth, Hema Fresh, Dingdong Grocery Shopping, Daily Excellent Fresh, etc. Meituan buys vegetables and other new retail platforms represented by fresh commercial supermarkets.
It is worth noting that these five types of enterprises in the prefabricated vegetable track have their own advantages and disadvantages due to their different models of focusing on segments, products and channels.
Taking enterprises specializing in pre-made vegetables as an example, because such enterprises have been deeply cultivating the pre-made vegetable market for many years, the application mode is often relatively simple, focusing on several rich types of dishes to continue to cultivate deeply, and the product positioning and channel layout are closer to the customer's demand for "pre-selected dishes". The risks are also obvious, for example, excessive dependence on regional income, weak upstream raw material layout and discourse power, etc.
Taking the "first share of pre-made dishes" Weizhixiang as an example, Weizhixiang has been deeply cultivating pre-made dishes for 12 years, intensively cultivating channels, and successfully creating two major brands of "Weizhixiang" and "Eating Jade", with products covering four major subdivisions of meat, aquatic products, soups and snacks, becoming the current leader in the prefabricated cuisine industry. At present, the company's scale is small, and its strength in channels, raw materials and other aspects still needs to be improved.
In terms of agriculture, animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises, the right to speak in upstream raw materials is obvious, the characteristics of raw materials are more understood, the cost advantages are outstanding, and the foundation of industrial production is solid. In addition, agriculture, animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises have a layout in the field of deep-processed products with a high level of profitability, the supply chain is relatively complete, and the advantages in the production of conditioning products and cooking package products are outstanding. However, there are many types of agriculture, animal husbandry and aquatic products industry and great competition, and major enterprises still deepen their familiar subdivision track positions.
Taking Guolian Aquatic Products as an example, relying on its own license advantages in the field of aquatic shrimp and tilapia, it has laid out the whole industrial chain of aquatic seedlings, feed, aquaculture, processing and sales. Among them, pre-made dishes are also a part of the layout of Guolian Aquatic Products in recent years.
In terms of quick-cold food enterprises, speed food enterprises rely on strong cold chain logistics and channel distribution capabilities to build brand awareness, and rely on brand advantages and research and development capabilities to extend their business territory to other food processing fields. In terms of disadvantages, the right to speak of upstream raw materials is not strong, and the cost management ability of enterprise supply chain and marketing is higher.
Taking Yasui Food as an example, relying on its leading advantages in the field of quick-frozen food, it has gradually made efforts to the pre-made vegetable industry and launched the sub-brand of "Mr. Frozen Product" to focus on kuaishou dishes. At present, Yasui Food has dozens of pre-made vegetable products built under the two brands of "Mr. Frozen Product" and "Yasui".
In terms of chain catering enterprises, chain catering enterprises are the main force in the market demand for prefabricated dishes. This is mostly used
Pre-made dishes can reduce the labor costs of catering chain enterprises, reduce the area of the back kitchen, improve the efficiency of meals, ensure the stability of product taste, and improve food safety and quality assurance. Among them, the proportion of prefabricated dishes used by head chain catering enterprises has been high, and the proportion of pre-made dishes eaten by enterprises such as Zhen Kung Fu, Yoshinoya, Xibei and Xiaonanguo is as high as 80%.
It is worth mentioning that with the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, many enterprises have entered the pre-made cuisine industry and launched pre-made dishes in order to save themselves. For example, Xibei launched the pre-made dish brand "Jia Guolong Kung Fu Dish", and Haidilao launched the "Open Rice" semi-finished dishes, self-heating hot pot and other products.
Therefore, as more and more catering enterprises join the prefabricated cuisine industry in the future, the prefabricated cuisine track will appear more crowded, and the potential uncertain risk of industry competition will increase significantly.
In terms of the fresh supermarket new retail platform, the fresh supermarket new retail platform represented by Hema Fresh, Daily Excellent Fresh, Duoduo, Meituan, Yonghui Supermarket, etc., although the upstream and midstream advantages of the prefabricated vegetable industry are not obvious, but the advantages of the downstream C-end consumer market are prominent. First of all, the main consumer groups of the new retail platform have a high degree of overlap with the C-end consumers of prefabricated dishes, and the accumulated consumption big data is more conducive to insight into consumer preferences and accurate sales.
Prefabricated vegetable outlet: quick-cold food enterprises have been "abandoned"
With the approaching of the Chinese New Year and the continuous rise of the local New Year atmosphere, pre-made dishes have not only become a hot topic of people's after-dinner conversation, but also one of the important catalysts for the soaring stock price of pre-made vegetable concept stocks in the stock market.
According to Wind data, as of January 24, 2022, in the past three months, the prepared vegetable index has risen by 8.8%, significantly outperforming the shanghai, shenzhen and innovation indexes. Among them, among the five types of players in the prefabricated vegetable industry, the increase tends to lead the way in agriculture, animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises and catering-related enterprises.
According to Wind data, as of January 24, 2022, among the 30 constituent stocks of the year-to-date prefabricated vegetable index, there are five companies that have risen by more than 10%, namely Delis, Guolian Aquatic Products, Jinling Hotel, Fucheng Shares, and TongqingLou, with an increase or decrease of +74.58%, +64.46%, +26.75%, +15.1% and +12.9% respectively. Among them, Delis, Guolian Aquatic Products and Fucheng Shares are agricultural and animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises, while Tongqinglou and Jinling Hotel are hotel catering enterprises.
However, in the pre-made dish outlet, the concept of pre-made dishes is very obvious, and the stock prices of Pre-made Vegetables Professionals, as well as Yasui Foods and Qianwei Central Kitchen, are contrary to each other, and the decline is obvious.
According to Wind data, as of January 24, 2022, among the 30 constituent stocks of the year-to-date prepared vegetable index, as many as 8 companies have fallen by more than 10%, namely Weizhixiang, Absolute Taste Food, Sanquan Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Dahu Shares, Anjing Food, Chunxue Food, Fuling Juice, Longda Cuisine and Babi Food, with an increase or decrease of -20.93%, -16.76%, -15.39%, -14.28%, -14.01%, -13.68%, - 12.54% and -12.33%.
Among the 8 prefabricated vegetable concept stocks that led the decline, the decline in weizhixiang as the "first stock of prefabricated cuisine" was the largest, which was really lamentable. In addition, the enterprises represented by Sanquan Foods, Qianwei Central Kitchen and Anjing Foods represented the largest proportion of enterprises that fell in the frozen food sector.
Epilogue:
In fact, pre-made dishes are not new. However, in the past two years, with the arrival of the epidemic and the listing of Weizhixiang, the prefabricated dishes have embarked on the C-end market from the B-end, making the prefabricated vegetable track well known to the majority of market investors, and the superimposed Spring Festival is approaching, and the sales volume of the C-end has begun to rise.
In this context, the theme of pre-made dishes ushered in "speculative" hype with the help of the festive atmosphere. Even some of the concept of prepared dishes have been sought after by floating funds, and the stock price has changed significantly. The rise in the stock price of delism in seven days and seven boards can be seen.
From the perspective of long-term development, although the future prefabricated vegetable track has the development prospects of 100 billion yuan, the development of the mainland prefabricated vegetable industry is still in the early stage, and the uncertain risk is significantly higher, investors should pay rational and restrained attention to market dynamics, and do not chase high to buy.
The specific uncertainty risk is several points: First, the entry threshold of the prefabricated vegetable industry is low, and new entrants from major subdivisions are constantly pouring in, and the crowd may become the main competition format in the future. In this context, will there be problems such as overcapacity and frequent price wars in the industry competition?
Second, at present, nearly 60% or 70% of the demand for prepared dishes are B-end catering industry, affected by the epidemic repeatedly, restaurant operations are restricted, will it inhibit the demand for prepared dishes?
Third, there is still a certain gap between the taste of prepared dishes and the dishes made by the restaurant or themselves, especially vegetables and seafood dishes. How to make up for this gap in the future and ensure that the scale of prefabricated dishes in the C-end market can maintain a steady growth trend?
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