The NBA officially announced the latest issue of the MVP list Jokic rose to the first place
In previous years, after half the process, the situation of the MVP battle was basically clear, and the number of candidates who really had the opportunity to win the award was often not more than 3.
But what has been staged this season may be the most chaotic MVP battle in history, and after halfway, the situation is in a mess, and at least 8 people have a chance to compete for MVP. The MVP battle has changed from the original Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant to a group battle.
In most seasons, the MVP selection is based on the principle of "the best performer in the team with the best record", but this season it is difficult to choose the MVP according to this principle, because the best sun is so balanced that Chris Paul and Devin Booker are difficult to determine who is the true core of the sun. As for the other candidates, they each have their own reasons for winning the award, but they have their own hard injuries, which is really difficult to choose.
"Double Male Competition" offline
Early in the season, the Warriors and Nets soared, with the winning percentage at the top of their respective divisions. Curry and Durant are invincible in data and efficiency, and the two have turned the MVP battle into a double male competition early on, and the others can only accompany them. In the list of MVPs regularly updated on the NBA's official website, the two always rank in the top two, but occasionally their respective positions are exchanged. In early December 2021, when the league announced the best of the month, the two were also elected separately.
But as the schedule progressed, the situation began to change, and the two ranked on the MVP list and the momentum of competing for MVP were declining. It's not that the other candidates are pushy, it's mainly because Curry and Durant are in trouble each.
Curry's trouble is that from December 2021, Curry's offensive efficiency has plummeted. From December 1, 2021 to today's game against the Jazz, Curry averaged 24.9 points per game, shooting just 39 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from three-point range. It was his lowest-browed time in Curry's career, and he had never been so inefficient in attacking for such a long time.
Playing the Jazz today, Curry played another dismal game, he shot only 5 of 20, including only 13 points and 6 assists on 13-of-13 three-point range. After today, Curry's true shooting percentage this season has fallen below 58%, the second lowest in his career (not counting the 2019-20 season that only played 5 games due to injury), which is only higher than the rookie season.
Draymond Green's injury will definitely affect Curry, the problem is that Curry didn't perform well when Green wasn't injured. Although Curry became the all-time three-point king in December 2021 against the Knicks, and the first whistle-blowing game of his career against the Rockets in the last game, staged some highlight moments, Curry's plunge in this season's stats still affected his wind evaluation. In particular, Curry has now lost the advantage of the team's record, and his Warriors are already 3 wins behind the Suns.
Durant's loss of advantage is purely due to injuries that have led to a sharp drop in attendance, and after suffering a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee, Durant will miss 4-6 weeks, and durant will miss at least 15 games as a rule of thumb. No matter how well Durant performs after his comeback, the Nets' win rate can rise to the top of the league, and Durant will most likely miss the MVP, because since Bill Walton in the 1976-77 season, no player has missed more than 11 games but won the MVP.
"Battle for supremacy" is online
In the latest MVP ranking on the NBA official website, the top 3 are Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. Durant dropped to 4th, Chris Paul pressed Curry to 5th, DeRozan at 7th and Morant in 8th. These 8 players are basically the players who are most likely to compete for MVP this season.
In addition to Durant and Curry, the other six players have their own advantages and hard injuries.
Jokic is invincible in high-level stats this season, with a player efficiency of 33 and a chance to break the all-time record of Wilt Chamberlain. In addition, in the winning contribution value (WS), player influence value (BPM), team contribution value (EPM) and other data lists, Jokic ranked First, and the advantage is very obvious.
If you only compare the data and influence, Jokic should definitely achieve MVP to defend his title, but MVP selection must also consider the record. The Nuggets are currently only 6th in the West, 12 wins away from the Suns and 5 wins away from the 4th-place Jazz. If the Nuggets can't get into the top 4 in the West, Jokic's competition for MVP qualification will inevitably be criticized. But conversely, if Jokic brings the Nuggets into the top four in the West in the absence of Michael Porter and Jamal Murray, his odds of winning the MVP will increase dramatically.
Antetokounmpo and Embiid are also very high on various high-level data rankings, and they have both played beast-level stats this season. But both teams are also plagued by a lack of lineups and a less than expected record, with the Bucks currently winning 61.2 percent, 8th in the league, while the 76ers have a 58.7 percent win rate and can only rank 6th in the East.
At present, Jokic, Antetokounmpo and Embiid have become the top 3 players in the MVP scramble, although they all have hard injuries on the record, but at the same time, they can also get the sympathy points of "capable teammates can't play". In the 3-man competition, Antetokounmpo may have the upper hand, after all, the Bucks are currently only one win behind the Heat and have a chance to reach the top of the Eastern Conference. If the Bucks win the top spot in the division, this will undoubtedly increase his chances of winning the prize.
As for the other three players, DeRozan gradually lost the sharp edge of the early season, the performance returned to flat, and the Bulls' record declined due to widespread injuries. Paul's Sun record is huge, but paul and Booker are difficult to determine who is the sun's true core, and the industry generally believes that it is difficult for the sun to produce an MVP for a team that relies on the overall play and does not have a particularly prominent player. The Grizzlies' no.3 spot in the West is a surprise, but Morant's junior qualifications, and Morant's 13 absences and 11 wins by the Grizzlies, a statistic that is also bad for Morant to compete for "most valuable."
The most chaotic MVP competition ever?
Last season, Jokic won the MVP with 91 first votes, and his advantage may seem huge, but it is most appropriate to describe it as "winning in chaos". LeBron James, Embiid, James Harden withdrew from the MVP competition because of injuries, and eventually Jokic, who was in best health, won the MVP.
This year, the situation is even more chaotic than last year, and it can even compete for the best in history. The most chaotic season in recent history for MVP competition was the 2005-06 season, when Nash won 57 first votes to be elected MVP. Bryant Bryant finished 2nd with 22 first votes, but only ranked 4th overall. James, who received 16 first-place votes, and Nowitzki, who received 14 first-place votes, were ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively. Billups finished 5th with 15 first votes.
That season was a bit similar to this season, and each of them had a reason to win. Nash, who won the award, played for the Suns with only 54 wins, ranking fourth in the league, while three teams won at least 60 games that season, and the Spurs and Pistons, as their respective division heads, were teams that played as a whole. Considering that the Suns lost Xiaosi that season (Xiaosi only played 3 games due to injury), Nash received a lot of sympathy points.
Nowitzki's Lone Ranger is ranked 2nd in the West, but he is only 3rd in the MVP vote. James is ranked 2nd in the MVP vote for his achievements in leading the Cavaliers, Kobe Bryant is in 4th place because he brought the weak Lakers into the playoffs, and Billups led the Pistons to 64 wins in the Top of the East.
This year's MVP scramble was no less chaotic than in the 2005-06 season, with six people getting the first vote in the 2005-06 season (the last being the Clippers' Brand), and eight people who could get the first vote this year. Even Rudy Gobert and Devin Booker in the back are not unlikely to get the vote. In the second half of the season, what we will witness may be the most chaotic and fierce MVP battle in history.