Gülen of the Ceibana Fund has stepped on almost all the mines of medicine

The second thunderstorm stock in 2022 still occurs in the pharmaceutical sector. Perhaps who could have imagined that Changchun Gaoxin, known as "Yaomao", was directly dried up for two stops.

1. Collection and collection is a knife in the pharmaceutical sector

It is undeniable that the current pharmaceutical sector, as long as it encounters collective procurement, basically the stock price will fall sharply. And yesterday, Changchun high-tech disk flash crash stop, today's direct word board sealed the stop, reported 204.84 yuan, the latest market value at 82.9 billion yuan, fell below the 100 billion mark.

The source of the big fall began with the collection, the scope of the Guangdong Provincial Alliance collection was officially finalized, and Changchun High-tech Recombinant Human Growth Hormone was also in the ranks of this collection. The areas covered by this alliance include 11 institutional units in 10 provinces: Guangdong, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps.

There are two main triggers for the collapse of the stock price in this document:

First of all, water needles and powder needles are included in the collection at the same time. In the current market, growth hormone exists in water needles and powder needles, but water needles use more advanced technology, and they are better than water needles in terms of effect and safety. Water needles are currently only Anko and Kinsey, and long-term is currently exclusive to Kinsey. This collection, the two kinds of needles are included in the collection, breaking the market's expectations, that is, the full competition of the powder needle into the collection is not unexpected, but there are not many enterprises, the competition is not strong water needles are also included, is unexpected by the market

Secondly, the quotation criterion exceeds expectations, and the price reduction of the winning bid required by the water needle is far more than expected. This time the price of the powder needle did not reduce much, and the water needle dropped by 70%. According to the data, from the perspective of Changchun High-tech business structure, water needle products account for more than 75%, powder needle products account for about 10%, long-term products account for about 12%, and three products account for 88% of the company's revenue. It should be known that Changchun high-tech water injections have sales of more than 5 billion yuan in 1 year.

Therefore, for the collection plan released by the Guangdong Pharmaceutical Exchange today, the maximum price of water injections is too low, and if the price of water injections is greatly reduced, it is bound to be a fatal blow to Changchun High-tech. The company's gross profit margin is greatly compressed or the market competition pattern has great uncertainty.

Some market views believe that due to the same group bidding of gouache, the company may give up the tender for water needles, that is, abandon the in-hospital market of water needles, and maintain the company's market share by reducing the price of powder needles.

Therefore, I have to say that the collection is really a knife hanging over the head of the pharmaceutical plate.

2. Gülen of the Ceibas Fund has stepped on almost all the thunder of medicine

When it comes to Changchun High-tech, when it comes to medicine, many people can think of the goddess of medicine, Glen! Judging from its entire position structure, the fund manager who is famous for the medicine basically stepped on the thunder of the medicine.

The company of Changchun High-tech is Gülen's favorite, even if it is in a downward trend, it is still on the way to increase its position. Gülen began to buy 2.57 million shares of Changchun Gaoxin in the second quarter of 2020, when the stock price was around 300 yuan, and in the third quarter, it also chased the high to buy 52,000 shares, and in the fourth quarter, it made up 467,000 shares with the decline in stock prices. In the first quarter of last year, Gülen bought 2.69 million shares of Changchun Gaoxin in a big way, the stock price was also very powerful, all the way up to create a new high, and in the following half a year, Gülen reduced its position by 1.11 million shares, at the same time, Changchun Gaoxin was also sold by a large number of other institutions, and the stock price plummeted, almost waist.

In the latest quarter, Gülen bought another 418,000 shares, which is the fifth largest outstanding shareholder of Changchun High-tech, corresponding to the market value of the position of 1.13 billion yuan, compared with the previous quarter, at least a loss of 300 million.

And turning over Gülen's China-Europe Medical and Health Hybrid Fund, the net value of the past month to see the drawdown is more than 10%, you know, this fund in the entire 2021, is not in the retracement or on the way to retracement. And the whole of 2022, still has not changed. From the perspective of heavy stocks, they are all the head pharmaceutical companies.

However, the individual stocks in the figure, without exception, are relatively large bearish. For example, CRO, Aier Ophthalmology, Tongce Medical, etc., and now add Changchun High-tech.

However, the allocation of such assets is what Gülen has to do, because most of these are the most high-quality pharmaceutical assets in China, and the biggest problem of Gülen's fund is that it is large in scale, and the ability to control positions is improved, and the difficulty is increasing. This is also what fund managers often call the so-called size trap.

In the continuous decline of Gülen Fund, it is difficult to say when it will reverse. But from the valuation of individual stocks, it is almost at a low level. But we can't ignore the real risk of pharmaceutical stocks, collection!

This article originated from Grand Gateway