The hot topic of the November holiday is not only Cai Songsong's departure, but also Gülen's resignation of two products.
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Wealth is in the sky, Cai Songsong
Gülen's topicality is no less than Cai Songsong's, and the announcement quickly triggered heated discussions in the market.
However, the reason for Gülen's resignation is different from Cai Songsong's, and the meaning of reducing the burden is more.
According to the announcement, Gülen stepped down as CEIBS Alpha and CEIBS Research Select to continue to manage CEIBS Healthcare, CEIBS Healthcare Innovation and CEIBS Mingrui New Beginnings.
From the perspective of the product attributes it continues to manage, Gülen may focus more on pharmaceutical industry investment in the future.
At present, medicine is at the bottom of history, and Gülen chose to unload the "baggage" at this time and start again, which is very wise and courageous.
It can be felt that after 3 years of ups and downs, Gülen is trying to be Gülen again.
Win-win
Gülen has been managing products for 8 years, the first 5 years have been invincible, but the last 3 years have not performed well, and the reason is also there.
First of all, it is difficult for scale and performance to coexist, and secondly, the bursting of the pharmaceutical bubble, and the impact of policies such as anti-corruption and centralized procurement.
However, what many people don't notice is that Gülen has outperformed the China Securities Medical and Health Index tracked in the past 3 years, and her products are ranked in the waist of funds that have been established for more than 3 years and have the word "medicine" in their names, so to be fair, Gülen's performance is far from as bad as it appears.
After her resignation, her management scale dropped to 67 billion yuan, and the current management scale of CEIBS Healthcare is about 53.9 billion yuan, the scale of CEIBS medical innovation is about 11.2 billion yuan, and the scale of CEIBS Mingrui New Starting Point is about 1.8 billion yuan.
CEIBS Healthcare and CEIBS Healthcare Innovation are relatively close to each other, and CEIBS Mingrui focuses on photovoltaic, battery, TMT, chip and other fields. Frankly speaking, Glenda can hand over the new starting point of CEIBS.
For CEIBS Alpha and CEIBS Research Selection, CEIBS Fund has also found a good home for its products.
CEIBS Research Select is independently managed by Lu Chunqing, who was previously a co-fund manager, and CEIBS Alpha is managed by Peng Wei, and both fund managers can rank in the top 20% of their peers in terms of tenure performance.
Lu Chunqing is a typical fund manager representative of "research and excellence" in the industry, previously served as the research director of CEIBS Fund, and now serves as the investment director of CEIBS Fund, she focuses on high-end manufacturing, and currently focuses on the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic fields.
Peng Wei is a Mesozoic fund manager that the author is very optimistic about, who used to work in RongTong Fund and officially joined CEIBS Fund in December 2022.
Peng Wei has formed his own investment style in more than 10 years of investment research career, namely meso thinking, balanced allocation, inflection point asset layout, etc., which also gives him both the ability to defend against risks and the sharpness to attack.
According to iFinD data, his representative product Rongtong China Wind achieved a return of 115.96% (Note: 2017.8.15-2022.12.16), with an annualized return of 15.42%, ranking 164/1358 among flexible allocation products in the same period.
At the 2023 CEIBS Fund Mid-term Strategy Conference, Peng Wei left a deep impression on the author.
He was clear in thinking and logical, focusing on sharing three questions with investors: 1. How to identify industry trend opportunities; 2. Discover how industrial trends are implemented in investment; 3. How to build portfolio management based on your own personality characteristics.
Interested readers can review our previous articles, and we will further analyze Peng Wei's investment in detail.
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Are there systemic opportunities in A-shares? Reflections of CEIBS Fund Cao Mingchang, Lan Xiaokang and Xu Wenxing
medicine
To talk about Gülen, you have to talk about medicine.
Long-term readers of a foundation Mao should know that the author began to dig the bottom at the beginning of 2022, and the bids were for the products of three fund managers, Gülen, Zhao Bei and Lou Huiyuan.
Why do I pay attention to medicine? Why is it laid out in a fixed investment manner? Why lay out proactive products? Here I would like to share my personal logic with you.
1. Why pay attention to medicine?
Source: ifind, as of October 9, 2023, CSI Pharmaceutical and Health Index valuation trend
Source: ifind, as of October 9, 2023, CSI Medical and Health Index dividend yield trend
First of all, the pharmaceutical industry is naturally at a historic bottom, which is very cost-effective from both the perspective of valuation and dividend yield.
From the perspective of pure trading, investment should pay attention to the risk and reward ratio, that is, how much loss you may bear after calculating the layout, how high the profit you may make, and whether the two comparisons are appropriate.
According to a statistic, the success rate of the world's best traders is in the range of 40%-50%, which means that if the risk-reward ratio of each transaction of the best trader is only 1:1, then he has just been doing useless work and cannot achieve profits.
Therefore, traders have been doing two things to polish the trading system, one is to reduce the stop loss, the other is to amplify the profit, in short, to improve the risk and reward ratio, that is, everyone often says "control the risk, let the profit run".
At present, the valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is about 26 times, which is at a historic bottom, and if it falls below the historical low of valuation, there is still about 10% room for loss, but there is at least 100% room to rise to the all-time high of valuation, and the risk-reward ratio of this transaction is 1:10, which is full of temptation.
2. Why is the fixed investment made?
A-shares have always had a tradition of "bull short bear long", and the reasons behind it are very complex, involving the capital level, the institutional level and so on.
Such characteristics as A-shares are not friendly to trading players, especially in the absence of a short selling mechanism, many people often earn money in the bull market and consume it in the long bear market.
But for fixed investors is different, we only need to be in a general space layout, do not have to guess where is the bottom, do not have to guess when the bottom ends, and even the bottom will not be too disgusted, because only the bottom range is long enough, the buying chips can be enough, and when the bull market comes, the profit will be richer.
3. Why invest in active products?
Now that ETFs are relatively hot, many people may ask why invest in active products instead of deploying index products?
The simple reason is that from the past data, the medium- and long-term performance of good active fund managers is significantly better than that of the comparative index.
In the past five years, the CSI Medical Health Index has fallen by 5%, but a number of pharmaceutical fund managers, including Gülen, Zhao Bei and Lou Huiyuan, have achieved very good positive returns, and many of them have doubled.
What is the value of an active fund manager? It is to create excess returns, which fall less than the index when it falls, and rise more than the index when it rises.
Burden
The development of everything is a spiral, and the development of the public offering industry is accompanied by countless successes and failures.
This round of development tells us that it is fundamental to do a good job in performance.
Under the wave of the Internet, investors can understand the industry through multi-dimensional data, and some new fund companies, new fund managers, 4-5 years can win the recognition of investors, which is difficult to imagine in the past.
But at the same time, everyone also clearly understands that star fund managers are not omnipotent, when the management scale exceeds the management radius, performance is inevitably affected, so there is also the phenomenon of collective burden reduction of star fund managers this year.
Some analysts pointed out that with the acceleration of "de-stardomization" in the industry, more public fund managers will turn to team-based development in the future, paying more attention to accumulating, improving and inheriting core investment and research capabilities.
However, the author does not like the expression "de-starring", and hopes that the industry will protect star fund managers.
Any field needs stars to develop, imagine basketball without Jordan, O'Neal, Kobe, James and Curry... There are no Peele, Maradona, Messi and Ronaldo in football... Two sports are bound to lose a lot of fun.
And the birth of a star fund manager, his education, ability, energy, determination, talent, and even luck are all unattainable.
So many times, protecting fund managers who can generate stable returns for a long time is protecting investors.
So how to protect fund managers? This requires the efforts of the fund company.
For example, improving the investment research system to provide support for fund managers, and making better trade-offs between scale and performance, such as cultivating more excellent fund managers to share the pressure of existing fund managers, these are the directions of efforts.