A New Year's Eve speech that must be heard in 2022, have you listened? The Power of Evolution

Many people will ask Liu Run a question: Runzong, what has happened to the business world in 2021? Where are the opportunities in 2022? This New Year's Eve speech is an answer.

The answer to this question must be answered from an evolutionary perspective. In June, a man in Hong Kong was robbed, and the police rushed to the scene and asked what had been robbed? The man said: Snatched the chip, 14 boxes, worth 500w Hong Kong dollars. Robbers don't rob gold stores, they grab chips. In 2021, the price of chips is indeed 2-4 times more expensive than gold. What the hell is going on? That's why the price is so expensive! Because the chip is seriously out of stock. Why is it seriously out of stock? Because of the pandemic. The epidemic on January 23, 2020 divided our world into two distinct eras, one without a mask, and the other with a mask and a green code everywhere. The epidemic has affected the tourism industry, affected the catering industry, and affected the offline service industry, so how has the epidemic affected the chip industry? Today, there are a total of 3 very important conduction factors, one of which, because everyone works from home, children learn at home, now everyone needs a computer, computer sales have soared, and products with computer accessories: cameras, mice, microphones, etc. need chips, and there is a huge demand for chips behind every consumer electronics product. Since the chip has such a rising demand, then directly expand the production capacity and production line? Actually, it's not that simple. Production capacity never climbs, what climbs is the continuous growth of demand, and production capacity can only climb the stairs, a big step. If you go to invest in a core source factory, the core source factory will invest about 10 billion US dollars, and it will take 2 to 3 years to truly produce output, which means that after this big step, it will be 3 years before it can be judged whether it can meet the needs at that time. Is the demand brought by the epidemic still there after 3 years? Many people judge that it may not be as crazy as today, so many core source factories are not willing to really expand production capacity. The demand is there, but the supply is lacking. Every electronic product without a chip can not go out of the factory, so what to do? As a result, a large number of companies began to hoard goods, and even many places hoarded the amount of half a year to 1 year, which caused a global chip shortage.

This is an industry with a high concentration of smart people and senior talents, but it is helpless in the face of the fusion brought about by the epidemic. But will the fusion of the epidemic and the environment only give everyone a problem? Of course not. Song Tingting, a 19-year-old sophomore female student, earned 500w through live broadcasting for half a year, she faced overseas buyers to conduct live broadcasts, about 5000w inquiries a month, and even many customers did not watch the live broadcast directly placed orders. A 19-year-old girl who hasn't experienced much business training has just soared. That's because her foreign trade e-commerce industry has ushered in explosive growth. The general manager of Ali International Station said: Runzong, do you know? The total amount of China's cross-border trade in the first quarter of 2021 increased by 300% compared with the previous 2019. Why has the foreign trade industry ushered in an outbreak? It is also because of the epidemic that the epidemic has affected the outbreak of the foreign trade industry with another set of completely different mechanisms.

In March last year, almost everyone thought that there would be a crisis in the foreign trade industry, the first half of the machinery manufacturing industry, the second half of the service industry, and the whole foreign trade industry. In fact, China's foreign trade has ushered in explosive growth, what is the reason? Because although we see that global demand is declining, supply may fall even more severely, and there are more and more gaps in the middle, and China's foreign trade is the first to resume work and production. The competitiveness index of China's small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises has soared since April last year, and the global supply has declined, but China's supply has begun to rise. It is very interesting that the same epidemic has had a completely different impact on the two industries, he has made the chip industry seriously out of stock, and let the epidemic industry break out madly. The epidemic even changed the fate of 2 people, he let the robbers rob and robbed 500w, he let the 19-year-old girl live broadcast to earn 500w. There is a sentence that can very well express the situation at this moment: "Heaven and earth are not kind, and all things are dogs", because of my change, you become good or bad, that is your business, it has nothing to do with me. Who will survive my change? Not the strongest, not the smartest, but the most suitable to survive. No matter who can survive, it does not prevent Song Tingting from becoming the Darwin of this era.

What is the power of evolution, using "massive" competition to cope with "complex" natural selection. Some real conundrum we won't know what's right? Runmi Consulting, first of all, is a consulting company, the most important job of consulting work is to think and find. So what to think about? Their job is actually to "look at the sky at night, think about the logic of "natural selection", look at people day by day, and find ways to "compete in things". "At night, I sat quietly and thought, what kind of changes has taken place in the world?" What is the problem in heaven, they come to try to do it, simple, may be made, rare, can not do it there. During the day, I will see people everywhere, look at people, and go to see who is smart for what reason? diligent? , in the middle of the massive competition to see how to make it, come to me to see how to do it, this is the day to see the human elephant. Thinking at night, searching during the day, between thinking and searching, for Runmi, the role of thinking is much greater. So Liu Run began to travel desperately, since the establishment of Runmi in 2013, the number of business days are in 100 to 200 days, business trips are desperately looking, desperately looking, asking the world, to find some successful companies because of their intelligence, strength, or luck. 10.1 A month of retreat, start preparing for today's talk "The Power of Evolution", just to see the future with everyone earlier.

Everyone is anxious, really concerned about change, there is a big variable, a slow variable, affecting almost all business, and this variable is population. If the price is a car, the population is a cruise ship, and it is a cruise ship of 10,000 tons, you may not be able to feel his change in it, he affects other changes in the business world, and what kind of changes will there be in the future?

Life, with whom do you live? Starting a family? How is it composed?

Life, in which city to live? Who do you live with? How to live?

Production, who goes to work? What do you work on? Who do you support after work?

These three things also affect the fate of every Chinese. Let's talk about production. Looking at the Chinese population structure chart, in general, only the labor force over the age of 16 and under the age of 60 can work to feed people under the age of 16 and people over the age of 60. The first figure is a 1950 figure, like a pyramid, the elderly over 60 years old at the top, the middle part is 16 to 60 years old, the bottom part is under 16 years old. At that time, everyone was very willing to have children, and even said that having more children dragged down the development of the economy.

The demographic chart of 2019 has become rectangular. The phenomenon of aging continues to reduce the growth rate of our country's GDP, there are not too many children, the burden is relatively light, and a large number of people in the 60s and 70s are still in the stage of youth and strength, and we can still maintain a growth rate of 6%. If this structure does not change significantly, and other elements do not change significantly, in 2050, the Chinese structure map will become an inverted pyramid. Old age and adolescence combined are almost equal to the intermediate stages of adulthood. People at this stage may happen to be our children, which means that our children are more tired than us.

There are two more obvious protrusions among adults in 2019. If we call the birth population of more than 2000w for several consecutive years as a baby boom, there have actually been 3 baby booms in China, the first baby boom: 1949-1957, for 9 consecutive years. Second baby boom: 1962-1975, 14 consecutive years. Third baby boom: 1980-1997, 18 consecutive years. This is the 3 baby booms since 1949, the number of baby boomers in the second time even exceeded 2000w, please ask people born in 1962, according to China's current retirement policy, when will they retire? In 2022-2036, for 14 consecutive years, baby boomers turned into retirement boomers. Evolution is the only reliable success science, so let's look at what other countries around the world have tried?

Flipped through a set of data, the United Nations ageing classification standard, mild aging, the proportion of the elderly over 65 years old more than 7%. Deep aging, the proportion of the elderly over 65 years old is more than 14%-20%, China is now 13.5%, it may be that next year, China will enter a deep aging.

Since 1995, we have entered the deep aging of Japan to learn from the experience, in the past 26 years, what thoughts and attempts has Japan made? Japan has tried almost everything we can try, tried holidays when we have children, money, immigration policies. Aging delays pensions, retirement reemployment, we can think of measures they have tried. Finally, there's one system: the Energetic Seniors Program, Power Senior. The average life expectancy of Chinese today is 77 years old, and medical experts tell us that this generation is living at a rate of 3 months more than one month every year to extend their lifespan, which means that many of us are more than 100 years old, but it is estimated that some people can live to 120 years old, if they really live to 120 years old, then what do we retire? Retired with 60 years left what you take to support yourself. Allowing the elderly after retirement to continue to exert their residual heat is an attempt by the Japanese. For example, there are 2 major changes to taxis in Japan: the first is expensive, taking a taxi from the airport to a hotel for more than 1,000 pieces. The second is that age is generally on the older side. When you get out of the taxi, a trembling old lady helps you with your luggage. The average age of auto mechanics is 36.8 years old, and the average age of engineers in Japan is 38.5 years old, which is the average age in China. The average age of taxi drivers in Japan is 59.4 years old, and the average is our retirement age, which is power senior's plan. Japan encourages many elderly people to do soft and easy work, release more young people to do more creative and energetic work, and locking young people in these positions is a huge waste of resources. The result now is that the employment rate in Japan in 2020 is 60--64 years old, with an employment rate of 71%. 65-70 years old, 49.6% employment rate, these older people they are still working.

This project is not only in Japan, but also in many countries in Europe and the United States. In the future, life is getting longer and better, and it will definitely lead to a result, that is, the elderly over 60 years old will re-enter the business world. Some of the phenomena that we have in many of today's business worlds change. Let's imagine that you call a car, and the driver is a young man, and he can't repair the car, design the car, build the car. Locking young people in their cars is a great waste of social resources. Many car companies say that they do not make money, perhaps the biggest reason is to use too many young people, perhaps the future of these companies can make money on the basis of the use of vitality of the elderly. The customer service center of the second industry (banking, express delivery, e-commerce), the scale of thousands of people or even tens of thousands of people, employs many of them are little girls who have just begun their lives, receive training - induction - crying - leaving, and the call center has a high turnover rate and complaint rate. The best way to solve this problem is to hire energetic old people. It is said that "thirty and standing, forty not confused, fifty know the destiny of heaven, sixty and obedient", after 60 years of wind and rain, what is unacceptable, "Child, you say slowly, I have time." "The third industry, the teller at the bank, had seen a skill competition show, faster than counting money. One of the girls counted the money very accurately, and she was very excited to pass on this skill. Counting money is a skill that she doesn't need to pass on no matter how showy she is. Who is to do this task? Energetic old man, she slowly counted, but also can move the muscles and bones, prolong life. The fourth industry: flight attendants. Flight attendants can still be seen on chinese planes today. In many countries in Europe and the United States, all you see are empty grandparents. In the future you may get to know more and more flight attendants on the plane, why? Because you two met 30 years ago. Some of the things that airlines of the future can do is rehire those flight attendants, and the cost may be reduced and the level of service may also increase. By the time you realize these changes, by the time 2022 is about to begin, I've envisioned my retirement, a car driver, a call attendant, a teller, an empty grandpa. I want to release these young people from these jobs and let them do things that are more creative and can really increase the productivity of this country.

So what is productivity and how to increase productivity? First of all, understand that total wealth = labor * productivity. The total wealth of the country is equal to the product of the population of the country that can create wealth and the amount of wealth created per person on average. For example, we have 9 people who can make an average of 8 steamed buns a day, 9 people are labor, and 8 steamed buns are productivity. McKinsey, 2015, analyzed the growth of the previous 50 years, with the growth of the global economy coming from labor and productivity growth. In the 50 years before 2015, the average annual growth rate of the labor force was 1.7 percent, and the average annual growth in productivity was 1.8 percent. In the 50 years after 2015, the average annual growth of productivity is 0.3% per year, and the average annual productivity needs to reach 3.2%, and what 7 people have done in the past 50 years will be nearly doubled by 4 people in the future. This thing has to be done very difficult, there is only one way, can only rely on science and technology. There is no way to pass through working hours, process improvements, etc., which are not enough to provide a 3.2% growth rate. If we want the world to continue to roll forward, scientists are becoming more and more important, the era when scientists are starting to start businesses, and the era when science and technology lead everything is coming.

Wang Yuquan, a technology investor, said that the best entrepreneurs will get the most advanced technology patents in the future, and find the most industry insight and execution ability to work together to find the best collaborative enterprises to develop together. Scientists enter the business world, which is perhaps the best way to grow productivity.

We all know artificial intelligence, but artificial intelligence in some ways can not reach human thinking, many times not as good as a 3-year-old child, then can it achieve the same thinking as humans? Professor Zeng Yi of the Chinese Academy of Sciences may be able to do brain-like intelligence. What can be done today is to take a laser pointer and shoot it on the face of a robot, and the robot can know that this laser pointer is shooting at my face, not on the face of other robots that look like me. The concept of "I" is not even available in many animals, which is a remarkable study.

Dr. Chen Xiaosu of the Department of Physics of Tsinghua University, his research direction is brain-computer interface, the direction of brain-computer interface research is how not to damage the brain, not invasive way to read brain waves, their research is leading in many parts of the world, we know that there are some diseases are epileptic diseases, such as epilepsy, Parkinson's. These diseases are painful and require lifelong medication. If these devices are made very portable, you can take him with you, and then take medicine when he encounters problems, which can alleviate the pain of 6,000w people around the world.

Professor Ji Linhong's research direction is mechanical bones. The so-called mechanical skeleton is a set of systems controlled by human mind on the outside of the human body, the lower limbs can run and jump, the upper limbs are responsible for grasping, once there is an external system that can be controlled by the mind, what role can he play? Do we often say that foreign trade, couriers are very, very hard, and then couriers can wear mechanical bones to move heavy goods to the 6th floor. Hearing this, it felt so good and warm. These scientific stories, these scientists, really deserve to be the backbone of this era. Are these things difficult? Very, very difficult, even a little incredible! But all those presents that are taken for granted are the future that was once incredible, and all the futures that are now incredible may be the present that tomorrow is taken for granted. Thanks to the entrepreneurs and scientists who have made a great contribution to productivity.

There's one area where productivity can be increased in almost all industries, outside of the population, and that's digitalization. Over the past few years, many people have been talking about digitalization, so what is digitalization? According to international practice, start with a story. Sariger, founder of Mohawk, a disruptor in the FMCG industry, said that "everyone is reshaping the retail industry like Amazon, but no one is reshaping FMCG companies." "What about FMCG, soap, toothpaste, shampoo, this is FMCG, but have you ever thought about it?" Every time you use up the act of buying it is a possible empathy. FMCG brands are occupying your mind with a lot of advertising, and these advertising costs will fold into the price of the product. And did Mohawk founder Sariger say he had to do it? Can we not make a product first so that consumers like us? Can we find those consumers first, know what he likes, and then do it? Then he climbed some data on Amazon, looked at all kinds of data, and studied what consumers really liked. Seeing such a set of data, how many users search for teeth whitening, how many search results, and how much consumption is brought. He found that teeth whitening would lead to more than 7,000 search results and $160 million in sales. Is there a more subdivision to search? Charcoal teeth whitening, more than 2000w, the development is relatively gentle. Teeth whitening pen, found that the word 1 year has 1000w sales, the data is growing year by year, constantly increasing. It means that consumers are shouting to you through data: I want to buy a whitening pen. Consumer data will tell you: What do I want to buy? Review data tells you: What's stopping me from paying? He studied a very hot ice machine, saw the comments and said: For example, after a few months, it stopped working, and it broke down in a year and a half, which meant that everyone wanted to buy it, but complained because of quality problems. Consumers want to buy but dare not pay because of quality. That's when the opportunity comes. So the research team was quickly set up to study what the reasons were? It turned out that there was a problem with the pump, and the Chinese manufacturer quickly solved the problem, launched its own ice machine, and sold it to 25% of Amazon's sales a few months later. Knowing what consumers like about this thing, many times may not ask. Because he mined consumption data and comment data from consumer behavior, and refined knowledge from these data. And made money from knowledge. It's not very much like oil, we extract crude oil from the ground, refine gasoline, and rely on gasoline to promote economic development. If oil is the energy source of the physical world, then data is the new energy of the digital world.

How to use this thing, can be distilled into a sentence: from the physical world, mining data, crude refining information, refining knowledge, aggregation into wisdom. Data, information, knowledge and wisdom. What is data, a photo is a data, just data is not valuable. But you see from the photo that there is a person, this person knows that there is a person standing on the scale, and there are numbers on the scale, and this photo is valuable. We want to remove the worthless things from this photo and leave the analyzable content. Then information is merely information and has no value. We need to further refine information into knowledge. The scale knows my weight, but also knows my height, blood lipids, blood pressure, if you know this information, you can get a knowledge, this person is not suffering from high blood pressure, so the knowledge is a number of information softly refined together, after obtaining knowledge, it is to aggregate, aggregate into wisdom. We know someone has high blood pressure, so what? We can use artificial intelligence to analyze the diagnosis and treatment records of many people with high blood pressure, and finally come up with the most effective diagnosis and treatment plan for the specific person, which is called wisdom.

The most powerful company that extracts data from behavior is Apple. What really makes the iPhone successful is not something that makes you feel the existence of the iPhone, what really makes the iPhone successful is what makes the iPhone perceive your existence, this thing is called a sensor. The first generation of iPhone because of the use of multi-touch screen, so it can better serve you, proximity sensor, photometric sensor, acceleration sensor, etc., if not with these sensors, a lot of things can not be done. The reason why it can serve you so intimately is because it senses your presence, it collects data from your behavior, and knows these things. Each version of the iPhone is essentially an upgrade of the sensor, which is constantly perceiving your world and digitizing your world. So you know what? When you are perceiving the world, the world is also perceiving you, and the world is constantly being digitized and mined.

There may be a confusion in everyone: if everyone is wantonly mining data, then where is our privacy? A lot of times convenience comes at the expense of our privacy. E-mail has the function of filtering spam, you have wondered why there is no filtering function, maybe people have not read all your emails, but the system must have read it. On November 1, 2021, China's Personal Information Protection Law will be officially implemented, the Basic Law of the Digital World.

1. Implement the principle of "notification-consent", and can be transferred and deleted. In other words, if you want to obtain my data, you must obtain my explicit consent, and I ask me to transfer or delete your data on your side, you must agree, otherwise it is illegal.

2. It is forbidden to kill big data

3. Strictly protect sensitive personal information

4. Regulate the cross-border flow of information

5, the platform has the obligation of "evidence inversion", such as this morning you went to the hospital with your wife to do a physical examination out that your wife is pregnant, in the afternoon you received 30 milk powder text messages, at this time, we will doubt whether the hospital leaked information, at this time, you do not need to investigate and distress, the hospital has the obligation to prove itself, this is the evidence inversion.

6. Fine of less than 5,000, or less than 5% of the previous year's income

The introduction of this law makes it more legal to mine the behavior into data, and when someone says that he will not abuse it, we can finally believe that it really will not be abused. A market without legal norms is a market where bad money drives out good money. It may have a significant impact on many enterprises, and an era of regular military is coming.

Now that we've talked about behavioral mining data, let's talk about the second part, how to turn behavior into information. Like the founder of snail rice technology Yang Hua, his stir-fry robot can make the taste of the mother, "the taste of the mother, is the taste you were used to when you were a child", called the mother to say that I want to eat the braised meat made by the mother, the mother said to tell you a recipe, remember ah a little salt, the oil is 80% hot, and finally use sugar to slightly collect the juice, you start to do it twice or three times, each time you make it do not know whose mother's taste is. Because what is a little? What is 80%? What is slightly? This is an immeasurable thing, you have to know how many grams of salt, how much degree the oil is heated, how long the juice has been collected, at this time you use the stir-fry robot to restore the process more accurately, in order to reproduce the taste of the mother. The rough information of the information removes the non-measurable information and becomes a measurable result. Crude refining: from data to information, from gold, wood, water, fire and earth, to hydrogen, nitrogen, lithium and beryllium boron, this is the only way to digitalization.

The digitization of beef. "Boss, I want fat and lean beef", the boss who sells beef has a lot of room for operation. Bad money expels good money begins, and the person who sells your good beef may not survive. Australia is divided into M1-M9 according to the fat content of beef, which clarifies the content of beef. Fat and thin are data, M9 is information. Beef, jade, tea, agarwood, antiques... All of these industries are industries where bad money drives out good money because the information is opaque. All lemon markets have the opportunity to do it all over again digitally.

The third step of digitization is to refine into knowledge, what is knowledge? Xiaoming weighs 180 pounds, is 180 healthy? Can you judge, it is difficult to say, if Xiaoming happens to be Yao Ming, 2 meters tall, if it is exactly 180 height, it will grow into a square. That 180,180 pounds must not be healthy? It's hard to say, we need to look at another statistic, body fat number. Knowledge needs to be judged by multiple pieces of data put together. New Wave Media uses digital methods to refine industry information into knowledge and improve advertising effectiveness. There is a saying in the advertising world: we know that we have half of our money wasted, but we don't know where the waste is, why not know? Because it's not precise. Invest in the community elevator media milk powder advertisement, first look at the Baidu index near the community to search for this milk powder users are not many, more words will focus on the delivery, after the investment, and then look at the Jingdong shop milk powder sales have not improved? If there is a significant change, add the delivery. Using the community, Baidu search data, and Jingdong shop data to refine a result, this result is where are the accurate users? The milk powder advertisements placed in this way have increased the effect of advertising by 130%, helping many enterprises to become tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of enterprises. Whether it is information in the human brain or the information disseminated, it can only become knowledge when it is gathered together.

The next step is to gather from knowledge to wisdom, which is the fourth part of digitalization. Gu Shaofeng, founder of Xinye Technology, said what is wisdom? It's about making better decisions at a lower cost. For example, a bank loan, if 5 people can use 3 days to judge whether a 5000w loan can be released, this is not smart enough, although safe but the cost is very high. The financial industry is inherently digital, and there must be ways to refine real wisdom from data, from information, and from knowledge. They are trying to help banks make new risk decision models with the Letter cube, and if they use a smarter risk decision model, they can achieve a 99% lending rate in 1 second at almost no cost. Another example is future car insurance. Elon. Musk announced in Tesla that he will launch UBI car insurance to account for 30% to 40% of the entire Tesla value, which is shocking, Tesla has a value of 1w billion US dollars, accounting for 30% to 40%. What exactly is UBI Car Insurance? Car insurance depending on the amount used. I have a car parked at home, barely driving, and paying 7,000 yuan a year in premiums. Do I have to share the risk with the cars on the road every day when I don't drive? Car insurance should not be paid according to the year, it should be paid according to the number of kilometers, and more people should pay more. If you pay according to the number of kilometers, how should the price per kilometer be determined? Whose price is higher and whose price is lower? How does UBI Auto Insurance do it? First of all, the first thing he did was to extract some data from the daily driving behavior, the mining process needed to use OBD equipment, fuel consumption, mileage, circuit signals, start and stop time and other basic data, after mining these data, what UBI had to do was to refine them into information, remove the valueless, and leave valuable information. For example, the more people who slam on the brakes, the more problems they may have, and the closer the car in front of them, the more problems they have. Based on this information, make further judgments: Who has better driving habits? People with bad driving habits will have higher premiums, and they will converge into a kind of wisdom that will automatically calculate that everyone's premium is different. So you can imagine that one day in the future, the automaker will call you: because your driving habits are particularly good, and basically do not open, all your premium is 2000 yuan, you are very happy, and then you told your friend, and then your friend also called and said, to pay 2000 premium, but the automaker told him, sorry, sir, your premium is 12000, your friend got angry and questioned why? OEMs say: Because you drift a lot. Then your friend got angry and stayed in the original insurance company, I'm still 7000 bar. The original insurance companies slowly found that the appearance rate of their customers was getting higher and higher, because good users were taken away by automakers, why did they take them? Because the automakers mine the data from the behavior, refine the information, refine the knowledge, and aggregate it into wisdom. In 2017, I said that a lot of insurance may have been sold by car companies because he mastered digitalization. Digitization + Personal Information Protection Law = Digital Oil Era. In the era of legal escort, the regular army to exploit this booming digital oil era.

There is another area that is also affecting our lives, and this area is consumption. An entrepreneur Zhang Xianfeng will remind him every time he finishes his run, and the app that helps him record his run will remind him: You are too strong, do you want to apply for a medal specially customized for this route? 100% runners. Zhang Xianfeng likes it, and he has a motto himself: to do things, you must be 100% committed. Spending money, that is, thirty or fifty yuan, every time he runs a route, he will apply for one piece, and even some roads also apply for two pieces. Before Valentine's Day, he ran a rose-like route and applied for two medals, one for his wife and one for himself. He told his wife that this medal was very special and that I had personally run it for you. Zhang Xianfeng ran many routes, more than 400 prizes, full of medals, plus various costs spent more than 3w. Do you know? everybody. The road is free, the legs are their own, with their own legs to run free of the road actually spent more than 3w yuan, on Taobao 2000 yuan to buy all, in the 2000 and 3w between the difference what is the difference? What exactly did he buy? Buying is something that our generation looks worthless, and this generation's Chinese buying experience. As long as I like it, there is no value that is not worth it. Does it look good? Do others like it or not? Will you praise me? Am I happy or not? We are getting to the other end of consumption because we've gotten richer over the years. Once we have more money than others, our consumption habits will definitely change dramatically.

Are we a rich country? How far are we from high-income countries? Our per capita GDP today is $1.21w, and the per capita GDP of high-income countries is $1.27w, a step away. In 2021, we are already on the borders of high-income countries. It marks the arrival of a new era of consumption and will even drive the growth of a new generation of economy. The troika that drives economic growth: exports, investment and consumption. Exports are the first batch of horses that China has grown. In 2008, the world suffered an economic crisis. In 2009, China's exports declined. Since 2008, investment has become a very important driving force. Today, although the investment is very good, it also brings a lot of hidden worries, such as overcapacity, such as high debt, for example

High leverage, along the way also planted a lot of mines, these mines need us to run all the way, all the way to clear the mines. The horse of our economic growth needs to be switched again, can consumption really drive this batch of carriages of economic growth? In 2021, China may become the world's largest consumer market. Consumption is becoming a huge driver of the next increment. New consumption era, new model, new channel, new brand. There are three things that are becoming more and more important, and these three things are done correctly, which means that we have stepped into a new era of consumption.

From an agent of the brand to a spokesperson for the user. In China, there is a very well-known teacher Luo who has been paying off foreign debt, Teacher Luo Yonghao was doing e-commerce live broadcast last year, at first others did not believe it, and now it is estimated that they all believe it. Because the 600 million accounts are paid off. Why? Many people wonder why Teacher Luo's live broadcast is so successful? In fact, in his first live broadcast, Teacher Luo told everyone his trade secrets, "Don't make money, make a friend, basically." "We are all friends, what do you want to buy, tell me, I take you to buy, to find the brand, this is my friend, cheaper, when a large number of brands see so many consumers coming, Teacher Luo explained that this is a large group buying activity, the brand side also has huge benefits, essentially representing consumers, live e-commerce This thing is not to help brands sell things, more to help consumers to buy things." The only basis for consumer decision-making: information, consumers to buy suits, size, material, consumers based on this information to make decisions. The era of words - the era of pictures - the era of video, hearing, vision, taste, touch, smell, today the Internet can only transmit hearing and vision. In the future, video could be the ultimate media form of the "classic Internet" until the metaverse emerged. Today, we deserve to resell all our products in the form of short videos + live broadcasts.

What do you think is the basis of the brand? trust! What is trust. The same two bottles of medicine, the appearance is the same, the ingredients are the same, but just because of the name of Tongrentang, are you more likely to buy Tongrentang? Because you believe that Tongrentang's sentence "Although the concoction is complicated, it does not dare to save labor, and although the taste is expensive, it does not dare to reduce material resources" is from the heart, although Tongrentang's medicine may be a little expensive, but the cost of being deceived is higher. If you can understand that trust is the foundation of the brand, you will find that a large number of new domestic products are rising in recent years, such as Yuanqi Forest, Huaxizi, Perfect Diary, of course, they have their own entrepreneurial spirit, but more because Chinese more and more believe in Chinese themselves, we have migrated this confidence to the brand we Chinese. This self-confidence mainly comes from our economic self-confidence and institutional self-confidence. From 1978 to 2018, China's economy grew at an annual rate of 9.5% for 40 consecutive years, which is a miracle in China's development history. When we went to many national shopping malls, we found that in addition to English, there were also Chinese, China was really strong, and we began to believe that what we made was a good thing. In addition, there is institutional self-confidence, when the epidemic first began last year, some people said what would happen if this happened in the United States? Later, there was an outbreak in the United States, and it was difficult for them to govern. Only then did we find that China's governance is still the best, and the system of doing great things with the strength of the whole country still has great power. This kind of economic self-confidence and institutional self-confidence allows us to have a deeper cultural self-confidence, the Forbidden City, Hanfu is also very good-looking, and cultural self-confidence has become a huge foundation of trust under all domestic products. This is an unprecedented new brand era, this new consumption era is built on new models, new channels, new brands, new consumption era, we wish you to become a new generation of Darwin.

Generation Z0, in 2022, the post-00s officially graduated from college, they began to make money, in their own way to influence the business world. When this era comes, we must all understand them. And we may not even understand their language. What does Zqsg mean? I think that even if I read the major in pinyin, I may not know that zqsg is a true feeling. What does Awsl mean? Yeah, I'm dead. When you say" "Ah, I'm dead", you are cute when you see it being particularly cute. The so-called generation gap is that I am at this end of the ditch, and you are at the end of the ditch, in the middle of the ditch, the languages that you either don't understand or I don't understand.

Why is there such a generation gap? How can we understand this new group of human beings. 9 underlying logics to understand them.

The first is abundance. This generation of children is rich at heart, if not rich. Our inner background is barren, and the children of the Z generation, the inner background is rich.

The second is sensibility. Rationality basically equals function, and sensibility basically equals my liking. And the way they express their sensibilities is memes, and 40% of young people only use memes.

The third one is the value of the face. Now young people's preference for appearance is not only in eating and drinking, even investment funds must also look at the appearance of the fund manager, the value of this fund manager is high, buy more, this fund manager is not high, he is a good person. The feeling of beauty is to appreciate, to see, to discover from a young age, and the feeling of beauty is a child's skill.

The fourth is patriotism. In the past, domestic products and international products, many domestic products want to sell well, you must apply for a foreign brand. And the new generation, when they grow up, our motherland is already strong.

The fifth is independence. I don't like team building, I oppose overtime. I don't want to team up, I don't need to enhance my feelings, and I don't want to work overtime when I give money.

The sixth one is the lazy house. Too lazy to socialize, too lazy to go out, lazy to do at home? Have a pet.

The seventh is petting. The rise of the pet economy.

The eighth is health. Their regimen is punk, drinking beer over and over again with goji berries. Stay up all night with the most expensive mask. Good looking, fun, interesting is the most important thing. In addition to health maintenance, it is also telling your body: I have done everything that should be done.

The ninth is meaning. If you want to leave your job in 70 or 80, someone may have given a higher salary, and what is the reason for leaving after 00? Because the boss is disobedient. They work because of meaning, they generate electricity for love. The state of work today is not driven by the anxiety of lack of money, but by the motivation of meaning. Anxiety is a dead energy, and motivation is a living energy. Because love works hard because of motivation and meaning, the hope shown by this generation of young people is also the hope of the country.

This 9 underlying logic is the underlying logic of a new generation of young people. This generation of young people must be understood, and only by understanding them can they understand the future. It's not that they represent the future, it's that they are the future. We have to be friends with them to be friends of time, because they are coming to us with time.

We understand the people we have to understand in 2022, and we have to understand the things that we must understand in 2022. That's traffic. The product business is to make things, and the traffic business is to sell things. The first time the traffic ecology is opened, online, the traffic cost is low, there is no difficult business in the world, the online traffic cost is low, the offline traffic cost is high, and then the sellers begin to gather in large numbers and flock to the Internet. Supply and demand determine the price of commodities, and commodity prices determine the cost of resources. The cost of platform traffic will become higher and higher. The price of online traffic goes up, and the price of offline traffic goes down. We call this new phenomenon a combination of new retail, online and offline.

Tap water, paid water, the highest price, this is the public domain flow. On the other side is private domain traffic. Drilling wells is expensive, but water is free. The public account is a well, from 2018 onwards, a high-quality article is updated every day, and then look at the data, but where the data is not high and is not recognized by everyone, we have to review what went wrong. Every day conscientious, diligent, do this for two or three years, first go to the public number fans more than 200w, this time we can finally use our good articles to reach everyone for free, this is to dig a well is very expensive, water free. Do you drill wells or use tap water? When more and more people use water and become more and more expensive, some people will think that it is so expensive, and this price can be used to dig a well with money. Am I going to dig my own well?

Offline shops are public domains, and WeChat groups are private domains. Private domains are those users that you own directly, can be repeated, low-cost, or even free to reach. Private domain model = privatization + repurchase rate + referral. Which is best to use, depends on the situation.

The industry makes money and looks at the "dividend". Businesses make money, look at "scarcity". At the beginning of the epidemic, all Chinese people need masks, but the spot of masks is far from enough, and the price of masks immediately soared, why? Because whoever is scarce makes money. Mask sellers make money, and when they go to buy, they find that they can't buy at all. Because the factory is too late to produce the masks needed by the whole China and even the entire market, the original scarcity is not the seller, the scarcity is the factory's production capacity. At this time, the ex-factory price of the mask began to soar, and the price of the sale and the price of the appearance were almost equal, and the profit of the mask flowed to the more scarce factory on the chain, at this time, the seller did not make money, the factory was more profitable. Open a mask factory so profitable, many other factories also changed the production line to make masks, but the production of masks need a special equipment mask machine, the mask machine originally 20w a during the epidemic rose to 200w a, mask machine began to be scarce, and so a large number of factories bought a mask machine to start making masks, this time everyone found that making masks is not so simple, so what to do? At this time, mask machine workers are more scarce. Began to dig people, the past mask machine is not enough, mask machine workers began to transform to do training, training a large number of mask production workers, 8w a day training fee. Well, finally a large number of production workers have been trained to start production, who is scarce at this time? Raw materials --- meltblown cloth, 2w a ton rose to 70w a ton, too expensive, when the price of meltblown cloth can be reduced ah? Do you really want him to come down? Later, the price of meltblown cloth really came down, all the links in the entire industry are not scarce, and the dividends of the entire industry are gone. A large number of mask sellers died in stock. The disappearance of dividends must be a corpse everywhere.

Many cross-border e-commerce sellers say "Runzong, don't tell everyone what products I do", our industry rules can exchange practices, can not discuss products. This is to make money by information asymmetry, based on luck. So before the epidemic is over, we need to turn dividends into profits, and we have to come to turn into not wanting to leave. So what do we do? Specialization, branding, localization. Specialization: You know what I'm doing, but you just can't do it; branding: when consumers search for your brand on the platform, not the category, you get a premium; localization: the so-called globalization, that is, the localization of each country. Our star sea is not a cross-border e-commerce, but a global brand.

Crazy growth. Where the world is torn apart, it will usher in a new round of crazy growth. For example, in the education and training industry, we all feel the changes in this year. In pole vaulting competitions, pole vaulters change from pole vaulting to pole climbing, and the referee rushes to check this violation? After checking the various competition regulations and judging that there was no violation, the champion was still awarded. Three years later, a rule was issued that no poles were allowed. Yes, no pole climbing. Because if they can climb the pole, every pair of parents will choose the best pole climbing coach for their children. But many families can't afford it. More importantly, climbing the pole is not the ability of the pole vault to compete. After the regulations come out, what should many education and training industries do? For example, adult education, family education, camp education, school-enterprise cooperation, quality education, intelligent hardware, education technology, science education, video live broadcast, these 9 directions can be the crazy growth direction of the education and training industry.

In April 2021, Ali was fined 18.2 billion, and in October 2021, Meituan was fined 3.4 billion. Behind it is the same reason, that is, antitrust. Let's look at what experience they have in antitrust in other countries. After AT&T was spun off in 1984, a large number of call companies in the United States grew wildly, and the cost of calls in the United States fell by 40%. The result of anti-monopoly is to break down barriers to competition and usher in the growth of all things. If anti-monopoly continues in China, it will bring about a third traffic ecology. The first traffic ecology is offline to online, the second is the public domain to the private domain, and the third is to break the platform barriers. Platform barriers are broken, you can finally be planted in the A platform, do content in the B platform, trade in the C platform, maintain user stickiness in the D platform, where the service is strong, you will usher in a crazy growth.

Starting in September 2021, WeChat can click on Taobao connection, Taobao's app has also officially accessed WeChat Pay, Ali and Tencent have become more and more open, when more and more Internet companies can learn Ali and Tencent, what will China's Internet world become? Connect and connect, will become Baidu pro, WeChat pro, Taobao pro, Douyin pro, everyone gathered into China's Internet pro, in this Internet pro world, interconnected, armed with each other, crazy growth, I hope this era, in the next year will officially come. This is the power of evolution, and the power of evolution is the power of coping with complex natural selection with a huge amount of competition.