In September last year, after a video meeting between US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, they reached a defense cooperation agreement called "AUKUS", under which the three countries will further strengthen cooperation in intelligence information sharing, advanced weapons and equipment research and development, and homeland security. In addition, in this agreement, the leaders of the United States and britain also promised Morrison that they would help Australia acquire attack nuclear submarines, with the specific goal of equipping the Royal Australian Navy with eight attack nuclear submarines around 2035.
After receiving a promise from the United States and Britain, Morrison immediately decided to stop the introduction of conventionally powered submarines from France. Analysts say the United States and Britain plan to help Australia acquire attack submarines, with the intention of targeting China. In recent years, with the strong rise of the Chinese Navy, domestic aircraft carriers and more advanced nuclear submarines in service, the U.S. Navy's advantage in the western Pacific has been weakened. In order to contain the Chinese Navy, the U.S. Navy decided to win over the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Royal Australian Navy to jointly confront China, and if the Royal Australian Navy entered the navy to obtain attack nuclear submarines, its comprehensive strength would be greatly enhanced.
However, Schriver, who served as an assistant to the US defense secretary during the Trump administration, said there are still many obstacles to Australia's access to attack nuclear submarines, and the worst result may be that Morrison will get nothing. Schreif said that whether Australia can obtain attack nuclear submarines depends on two factors, one is whether the US Navy will oppose, attack nuclear submarines as a lethal high-tech weaponry, at present, few countries in the world can independently develop, the US Navy must consider the transfer of nuclear submarine technology to Australia, the risk of technology leakage.
The second is whether the "AUKUS" agreement can be supported by the future governments of the United States and Australia. Sherifu said the deal was the product of a meeting between Biden and Morrison, and it was difficult to guarantee that future U.S. and Australian leaders would endorse the deal. Judging from the current situation, the prospects for Biden and Morrison to continue to be re-elected are not optimistic, and the latest poll data shows that Biden's public opinion support rate hovers around 40%, and coupled with his age problem, Biden's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are very small.
As for Morrison, facing the same problem, according to a poll launched by the Australian media "Sydney Morning Herald" and "Herald Sun", Morrison's Coalition party's support rate has now dropped to 34%, while the support for the handicraft party will gradually rise. According to the report, most Australians are not satisfied with Morrison's performance in power, whether it is epidemic prevention and control, economic recovery or social welfare, Morrison is not as brilliant.
It is reported that the Australian federal elections will be held in May this year, and in a short period of time, Morrison will not see the trend of reversing the decline in the election situation. Schreif said that if the leaders of the United States and Australia change, the probability of Australia acquiring attack submarines will drop below 50%, or even less.