1. Old acquaintance – Valtteri Bottas
Mercedes have shown their tendency to be safe and steady throughout the 2021 season, especially in the races that determine the title.
And the smoothest transition will be to bring back Walteri Bottas.
He has been Lewis Hamilton's partner for the past five seasons, but after being replaced by George Russell, he will move to Alfa Romeo for the 2022 season. He brings about obvious changes: experience and familiarity with the team and the car, as well as the respect earned at Mercedes.
Every driver has to have the confidence that they can be champions, and if Bottas gets the chance to get back into next season's Mercedes team, that will certainly motivate him to challenge for the world championship.
But while Bottas may seem like a definite number two to Hamilton, he may not be so eager to take on the same role in front of 23-year-old Russell.
Alfa Romeo will have a seat to fill and could bring Antonio Giovannazi back from Formula E, or maybe even rescue Mik Schumacher from his current desperate situation at Haas.
2. The youngster who recently won the sub-station championship - Esteban Ocon
Prior to joining Renault (now the Alps) in 2020, Esteban O'Conn was not only a member of the Mercedes youth team, but he was also one of only two academy drivers to win races outside of Mercedes last season (Daniel Ricciardo was the other).
He moved to Force India during his semi-rookie season in 2016, and after being a reserve driver for Mercedes in 2019, Aucom jumped to Renault and has been impressed over the past two seasons. He had a certain degree of familiarity with Mercedes personnel and equipment, albeit not as much as Bottas.
Hiring O'Conn will allow us to see him fight his former teammate/nemesis Perez before he's on the floor, or another disastrous battle with his own teammate. AuCom's contract with Alpine expires in 2024, so they may ask Mercedes to pay a huge fee for the transfer. But a talented, young and experienced driver like AuCom – who is only 25 years old but has already entered his sixth Formula One season – is not readily available anyway, and Mercedes has deep pockets.
3. Skilled youngster - Oscar Piastri
Oscar Piastri, a 20-year-old Australian who won Formula III and Formula II 2021 in 2020, is currently a reserve driver for Alpine and may soon be racing in Formula One. This is most likely in the Alps, where he currently works as a reserve driver.
The F2 champions are not guaranteed to be successful in Formula One as well, but three of the past six Formula Two winners – Pierre Gasley, Charles Leclerc and Russell – did not disappoint. Before becoming Formula One champions, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg also won Formula 2 titles.
Hiring Piastri is anachronistic for conservative Mercedes, but we can predict that Piastri will be racing in Formula One sometime in the next season or two anyway. But he's not the only young Formula TWO champion desperately trying to get into Formula One.
4. Another young champion hungry for a seat – Nyck de Vries
Aside from Walteri Bottas, the oldest driver on this list is 26-year-old Nick DeFreis, who won the 2019 Formula II Championship and the 2020-21 Formula E Championship. That was enough to win mercedes' gaze.
He has also won karting and Formula Renault titles and has been playing for Mercedes' Formula E team for the past two years. Previous successes, combined with his familiarity with Mercedes' racing program, made him a reliable but not inspiring option.
I'm not sure how he'll get along with George Russell, and if Lewis Hamilton returns, he'll be the obvious number one driver.
He would naturally be behind Russell. But despite his lack of experience in Formula One, De Vries is undoubtedly accomplished and talented.
But Mercedes has a strong infrastructure, and with nearly a decade of dominance in Formula One, they undoubtedly have the human resources that make both De Vries and Russell feel welcome, comfortable and valuable. Mercedes certainly has the leadership and material resources to make them both successful.
None of these options are very surprising, but if Mercedes want to make a compelling move and are also popular among racing fans, then they need to blame the FIA from their current predicament.
5. Capitalizing on the Growing U.S. Market – Colton Herta
In 72 Seasons in Formula One, there were only two U.S. World Champions: Phil Hill in 1961 and Mario Andretti in 1978. Mario's son Michael ran only one disappointing season in Formula One, but was one of the most successful Indy-2 drivers of all time. After his retirement, he developed Andretti Autosport into one of the most successful racing organizations of all time.
Over the past season, Andretti is in talks to buy Alfa Romeo until the issue of control of the team derails the deal. If they succeed in Formula One, they will almost certainly bring in their first American driver since Alexander Rossi in 2015 , the 21-year-old Colton Herta , making him the second youngest driver in next year's Formula One – six weeks more than Kakuda , who has won six Indycar races in his first three seasons. He will return to Andretti's Indy car programme in 2022 with Formula One veterans Rossi and Romain Grosjean.
He should do his best to learn the lesson these two men taught him, because as the support of American fans increases, there will soon be pressure for American drivers to return to Formula One.
Herta would be the obvious choice for Andretti, but he would be an unorthodox option for Mercedes, who had never hired an American driver. His hiring will also help fix some of the PR damage caused by this year's controversy and Mercedes' reaction.
Herta did not receive Super Licensed Points for a Formula One seat, so he needed the INTERVENTION of the FIA to alter the IndyCar point allocation or to determine that "circumstances beyond [his] control or cause of force majeure" prevented him from earning the necessary 40 points.
Hertha is more likely to finish third or higher in the standings for the upcoming Indycar season to get a super driver's license, but if Mercedes still believes the FIA owes them a favor for what happened in Abu Dhabi, perhaps they could lobby for a change or waiver.