The international situation is volatile and tense is unprecedented. According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on January 17, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov told the media that President Putin's visit to China is in full swing, and in addition to attending the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics, President Putin will also lead a delegation to hold "comprehensive talks" with the Chinese side, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will also accompany him and will take the lead in meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi the day before the opening ceremony. President Putin's current visit to China is taking place against the backdrop of continued tensions in Russian-Ukrainian relations and the imminent outbreak of a major war in Europe.
Before the end of last year, at the instigation and support of the United States, President Zelenskiy ordered 120,000 Ukrainian troops to pounce on the Donbass region, where the pro-Russian city in eastern Ukraine is located, triggering a strong reaction from Russia. President Putin warned the United States, Ukraine and NATO not to act rashly, and in the "ultimatum" demanded that NATO "stop eastward expansion", especially not to absorb Ukraine and Georgia as NATO members, otherwise Russia will "take military measures" to solve the problem. However, on January 10, the US-Russia strategic security dialogue broke down, and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis not only did not ease, but on the contrary continued to deteriorate, with the possibility of war.
On the eve of Putin's visit to China, according to a recent report on the US "Defense Blog" website, the Russian military continued to "gather new troops" on the Russian-Ukrainian border, and a large number of helicopters and fighter jets were "transferred to the Russian-Ukrainian border", and the New York Times believed that if Putin decided to "invade" Ukraine, then these weapons "will be Russia's key advantage". It is reported that in order to deter the Ukrainian army, Putin has ordered the assembly of about 100 tactical battalions and a total of 100,000 troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border, and they are ready for battle.
So will Putin really launch a "blitzkrieg" against Ukraine to prevent the Ukrainian army from attacking the Donbass region and at the same time dispel the ambitions of the Ukrainian government to join the NATO military bloc? It should be said that this possibility cannot be ruled out.
1. The last time Russia used force to interrupt the process of other countries joining NATO was in 2008, during the Beijing Olympic Games, when Putin was in Beijing to remotely control the war between Russia and Georgia. It can be said that the hosting of the Beijing Olympic Games attracted the attention of the world, including the United States, and covered the "blitzkrieg" of the Russian army very well, and as a result, Putin won the war in 5 days. Now putin is about to appear in the Beijing Winter Olympics, and Ukraine is preparing to join NATO, the Russian military is waiting for the dan, this scene is very similar, do not rule out the possibility of Putin copying the "Georgian model".
2) In order to deal with Ukraine, Putin came up with a "battalion-level tactical group", which shows that the Russian army is "serious". The concept of "tactical battalion" was proposed and applied by the Russian army on the basis of absorbing the first and second Chechen wars, and it was moderate in scale and could independently carry out combat tasks. A standard "tactical battalion" consisting of a standard motorized infantry battalion (or tank battalion), a reinforced artillery battalion, a motorized infantry company (or tank company), an anti-aircraft battalion and an anti-tank battalion, and other combat support units. The "tactical battalion" helped Putin win the war in Chechnya and in Georgia.
3) Putin really can't afford to "lose" Ukraine. Ukraine's strategic position is more important than Georgia', once Ukraine joins NATO, then the Russian Black Sea Fleet base Sevastopol will face the blade of the US military; the "Pershing" medium-range ballistic missile (with nuclear warhead) deployed by the US military in Ukraine can strike Moscow in 4-5 minutes, so that Russia's "nuclear counterattack" is too late; NATO heavy troops will easily cross the Dnieper River and plunge directly into Russia's vast plains, like a sharp knife straight into Russia's soft heart.
Therefore, with the collapse of the "Strategic Security Dialogue" between the United States and Russia, the United States and NATO are determined to develop NATO, and Russia basically has "no choice", in the words of the Russian media, "either prepare for war or raise your hand and surrender", so it is indeed impossible to rule out the possibility of Putin "remotely controlling" the Russian-Ukrainian war for the second time during the Beijing Winter Olympics. Putin and his party will discuss "all aspects" of the relationship with their Chinese counterparts, and in addition to further deepening the level of Sino-Russian cooperation, they may also discuss "strategic coordination" and perhaps what China can do in the East to share Russian pressure.
For example, just recently, North Korea suddenly tested ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles several times, and then China once again opened rail transportation between China and North Korea to provide the North Korean side with much-needed materials. The United States was "extremely shocked" by North Korea's possession of hypersonic missiles with speeds of up to Mach 10, a technology that the United States has not mastered, and all three test launches conducted by the US military in 2021 have ended in failure. The United States suspects that China and Russia have "provided" relevant technology, and there are Russians in the sanctions against North Korea, and some people "protest" at Chinese diplomatic agencies.
Former Russian President and current Vice Chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council Medvedev once pointed out that when Neither China nor Russia can ensure their own security, the two countries may form an alliance, and now it seems that this process may be accelerated. There is no doubt that this will have a major impact on the global pattern and will determine to a large extent the fate of human development in the 21st century.