Growth hormone is three-fold discount collection, although the purchase volume is less than 1% of revenue, but Changchun high-tech stock price has collapsed

Yu Shiqi/Wen Growth Hormone Collection "Black Swan" landed. On January 19, the website of Guangdong Pharmaceutical Trading Center released the notice of "Guangdong Alliance Diclofenac and Other Drugs Centralized Procurement Documents", and growth hormone appeared for the first time in the collection list, inviting enterprises including Changchun High-tech, Jinke Biological, Novo Nordisk and other qualified enterprises to apply. At present, public information shows that after the collection, the price of the category should be directly "three discounts".

The capital market is moving, and the growth hormone leader Changchun High-tech (000661. SZ) directly flashed and fell on the same day, closing at 227.60 yuan / share, a new low in the past two years. After that, Changchun Gaoxin said on the interactive platform that the company is currently actively studying policy regulations and will formulate a reasonable plan, and there is no specific impact expected at present.

In may last year, it was rumored that Guangdong Province was preparing to incorporate growth hormone into the collection, when Changchun Gaoxin said that it had not received formal written documents and notices related to centralized procurement. However, at the exchange meeting at the end of last year, it said that it had formulated a number of plans for collection and procurement, and believed that the whole policy was relatively mild from the perspective of the draft for comments. The competition is more direct to Anke Bio, saying that even if it enters the collection and collection, the impact on the entire industry is not large, because more than 90% of the growth hormone products are at patients' own expense, and most of them are sold out of the hospital. At present, the data of Anke Bio and Changchun Gaoxin both show that the current sales ratio in hospitals is less than 30%.

Judging from the amount of money, the impact of this collection is indeed limited. This time, the Guangdong Alliance collected ten provinces including Shanxi and Jiangxi, and the amount of reporting to Changchun Gaoxin was 129377 water needles and 310063 powder needles. According to the highest declared price, the order amount was 33.2291 million yuan for water needles and 20.8802 million yuan for powder needles, totaling 54.1093 million yuan. Changchun Gaoxin achieved revenue of 6.161 billion yuan in the growth hormone business in the first three quarters of last year, and the order amount of this collection was less than 1% of its revenue.

However, investors are still extremely pessimistic, and many investors said that this gathering has broken their expectations of Changchun High-tech to maintain high growth. There are two main reasons, one is that the scope of collection exceeds investors' expectations. Before the collection, the general view of the market is that the scope of growth hormone collection will only involve powder injection dosage forms, and the probability of water injection dosage forms being included in the collection is extremely low. Changchun Gaoxin has also expressed a similar view in the exchange of investors, it has said that at present, only powder needles have entered the medical insurance, water needles are outside the scope of medical insurance, and only three have been approved, and there is no full competition for collection.

It is understood that the domestic growth hormone market size is about 6 billion yuan, mainly divided into powder needles, water injections and long-acting preparations of three dosage forms, of which, water injection dosage forms are the most mainstream, accounting for about 60% of the entire market, the industry pattern is Changchun High-tech is the only one. Soochow Securities Pharmaceutical Research shows that in 2020, the sample hospital water injection growth hormone Changchun high-tech market share ranked first (sales accounted for nearly 100%, sales accounted for nearly 100%).

According to Changchun Gaoxin's 2020 annual report, the growth hormone business achieved a net profit of 2.760 billion yuan, accounting for 90% of the total profit. In this business, water injection dosage forms account for 70%, which is the profit pillar of Changchun Gaoxin.

Now the profit pillar has been included in the category of collection, and what is more fatal is that the price has dropped significantly. In the highest declared price of this collection, for the first time, there was a situation of "the same price of gouache", which is also one of the main sources of investor pessimism. Powder needles and water needles originally corresponded to the low-end and mid-end markets, and the annual cost was about 20,000 yuan and 60,000 yuan respectively. However, in this collection, the price of water needles and powder needles is almost the same. Taking the 30IU unit of water needle as an example, the previous winning bid price of Changchun Gaoxin was 1030 yuan / piece, while the highest effective declaration price of this collection was only 295.07 yuan / piece, a decrease of 70%.

And according to the quotation rules, Changchun Gaoxin wants enough winning bids, and the price of water needles may have to fall. In this collection, the price reduction range and the purchase volume are directly linked, and the participants need to prepare two sets of quotations (P1 and P2) to bid for 70% of the purchase volume and 30% of the purchase volume respectively.

P1 anchors the highest effective declaration price (this time 295.07 yuan / piece), and 10% lower can get 25% of the purchase volume, that is, the price of 265.56 yuan / piece. For every 1% reduction in price on this basis, you can get an additional 5% of the purchase volume. If Changchun Gaoxin wants to take the full 70%, it will be at least 75% lower than the price before the collection.

P2 can only be lower than P1 to have a chance to get the remaining 30% of the purchase. And according to the regulations, if the actual procurement volume of Changchun Gaoxin this year exceeds the total amount of pre-procurement of collective procurement, then the renewal price of the second year will be implemented according to P2.

With such a combination of punches, the profit pillar of Changchun Gaoxin has directly dropped to the "jump price" in the eyes of investors. Some investors have even proposed to give up participating in the collection of water needle varieties, for less than 1% of the market, it is not worth destroying their own price system. But more investors are worried that the collection of the Guangdong Alliance is just the beginning, which is also the routine operation of the collection, first through the regional collection pilot, and then promoted to the national collection, which was the case before the consumables. The collection strategy of including water needles and "gouache at the same price" will spread in the subsequent promotion, causing a chain reaction to the performance of Changchun High-tech.

In the past decade, Changchun High-tech has maintained rapid growth with the hegemony of growth hormone, with an annual compound growth rate of more than 20%, and the stock price has risen 38 times, known as "Moutai in Medicine". Now encountered the growth hormone "collection of black swans", how much impact will it have on its high-speed growth performance, jingguan health will continue to pay attention to.