In 2021, China's population will grow by 480,000, how to understand this data?

Today I would like to share with you a small article in Both Chinese and English

According to data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 2021, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and active military personnel, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners living in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) was 1,412.6 million, an increase of 480,000 over the end of the previous year. The annual birth population is 10.62 million, with a birth rate of 7.52 ‰; the death population is 10.14 million, and the population mortality rate is 7.18 ‰; and the natural population growth rate is 0.34 ‰.

The Chinese mainland's total population reached about 1.41 billion at the end of 2021, an increase of 480,000 over 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics released the data on Monday. The Chinese mainland saw a low number of newborns last year — 10.62 million, with a birthrate of 7.52 thousandths. Deaths numbered 10.14 million, or 7.18 thousandths. Natural population growth rate reached 0.34 thousandths.

China Daily interviewed Yuan Xin, professor and doctoral supervisor of the Institute of Population and Development, School of Economics, Nankai University, to talk about the challenges, future trends and countermeasures of Chinese, and the following are excerpts:

❶ How do you rate the latest population data?

Original: 10.62 million new births were born last year, the smallest number of births since the founding of New China. When the mortality rate steadily increases to more than 10 million per year, while the number of births gradually declines, it means that China is entering a stage of zero population growth. After a few years of fluctuations around zero, it will enter a stable, normalized negative growth. In other words, China's population size has reached a peak of about 1.42 billion.

The number of newborns last year — 10.62 million — is the lowest since the People's Republic of China was established. When deaths are stable at around 10 million per year and births continue to drop, it suggests that China is entering a zero population growth period. After staying at zero-growth for a few years, it will go into a stable, normalized negative growth. In other words, the Chinese population has reached its peak of about 1.42 billion.

❷ What do you think is causing the decline in the number of births?

Original: Family planning policies and rapid economic and social development jointly promote the decline in fertility.

The family planning policy and the rapid social and economic development promoted the trend.

As incomes rise, and women's access to education and employment improves, the birth rate naturally declines. This is consistent with the law of population development in all countries of the world.

With the increases in income, education and employment, especially among women, the birthrate naturally moved downward. It conforms to the law of development in every country in the world.

In fact, the downward trend in fertility has been around since the 1970s and 1980s, and fertility has remained low since 1992. When people are educated longer, the age of marriage and childbearing is naturally postponed.

The trend for a dropping fertility rate has manifested as early as 1970s to 1980s. Since 1992 the fertility rate has stayed at a low level. When there's a longer period of education in China, marriage is postponed along with childbirth.

As the economy grows, the cost of people's survival and the cost of raising children is also rising, and Chinese families are feeling more pressure. Moreover, Chinese families demand more quality than they need for the number of children – they tend to focus their limited resources on raising good children.

With economic growth, the cost of living and cost of raising children are increasing. This brings more pressure on families. Moreover, families have weaker demand for a certain number of children and stronger demand for quality. They tend to centralize their limited resources to cultivate brilliant children.

❸ What are the most daunting population-related challenges facing China?

Original: To sum up: the willingness to have children is weak, the fertility base is shrinking, and the fertility behavior is negative.

The willingness to have children is weak. The fertility base is contracting. Reproductive behavior is negative.

The number of women of childbearing age (aged 15-49) in China is about 330 million, which is expected to fall to 200-240 million by 2050. The average age of first marriage is about 26 years old, and the average age of first childbearing is around 28 years old. Having a second and third child is older, which also increases fertility risk.

For example, the number of women of childbearing age from 15 to 49 is about 330 million and is expected to drop to 200 to 240 million by 2050. The average age for first marriage is 26, and first childbirth is about 28. Mothers of second or third children are much older, which increases risks in reproduction.

Longevity and low fertility rates exacerbate population ageing. As the number of elderly people increases and the number of labour forces decreases, the demographic structure will change, posing challenges to social development.

Longevity and a low fertility rate lead to an aging population. With the rise of elderly people and the decline of the labor force, the structure of the population will change. This will pose challenges in social development.

❹ What impact will the decline in population have on China's socio-economic development?

Hara: We don't have to be too pessimistic about this. Population is important, but it cannot determine the rise and fall of a country.

We don't need to be overly pessimistic on this issue. Population is important, but it doesn't determine the rise or fall of a country.

The impact will be felt twenty or thirty years from now, because children born now will not grow into labor force until twenty years later. In the short and medium term, we will continue to enjoy the "demographic dividend" brought about by the rapid growth of previous generations.

The impact will only manifest two decades later or more, because babies born today will grow into a labor force after 20-30 years. In the short and medium time frame, we will continue to enjoy the "demographic dividend" brought by earlier generations.

Even if it turns negative, the Chinese will remain at a high level of 1.2-1.3 billion by 2050, which is also a very large scale. In five years, India may replace China as the world's most populous country, but China will also be second. For a long time, the pressure of population on the economy and society will not change, nor will the contradiction between the huge population and limited resources.

Though it's turning toward negative growth, the Chinese population will still stand at around 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion by 2050, which is a very large size. Five years later, India may replace China as the country with the largest population in the world, but China will remain a close second place. For a long time, the pressure of population on the economy and society will not change. The tension between the large population and limited resources will remain strong.

In addition, even if the labor force will decrease, it will remain at 720 million by the middle of this century, which is much more than the number of developed countries. As China moves towards technological, digital and intelligent industrialization, people's employment pressure is still very high. Artificial intelligence and robots will occupy many jobs. The market demand for the quality of the labor force will be higher than the demand for quantity.

Even though the number of people of working age will decline, it will still stand at about 720 million by the middle of this century, which is much larger than developed countries. Employment pressure will still be strong, as China goes into a more technological, digital and intelligent industrial era. Artificial intelligence and robots will replace a lot of jobs. And the demand for human labor will focus on quality instead of number.

But we should also see that chronically low fertility threatens national security. Therefore, we must be vigilant against the long-term population risks of low fertility levels.

But we should also see that long-term low fertility may threaten national security. We must be vigilant about the long-term risks of a low fertility rate.

❺ What can be done to address today's demographic challenges?

Hara: We should ask young people under what circumstances they are willing to have children, and what kind of public services they want. In addition, 50%-70% of children are cared for by grandparents or maternal grandparents, and public nurseries would be a great addition.

We need to ask young people in what condition they are willing to have a child, and what public services they want. As about 50 to 70 percent of children are cared for by their grandparents, public nurseries should be a good helper.

Policy should be asked by the people. Many provinces encourage fertility by extending maternity leave, but the longer the maternity leave, the less likely it is that a mother will return to work. If a wife loses her job, how can a family provide for the children? Employees do not work for a long time, and employers will also bear a lot of pressure. This will make it difficult for women to find a job. It would be better if employers could be given some preferential treatment in taxes and other areas to reduce their costs.

Policies should take people's needs and worries into consideration. Many provinces have lengthened maternity leave to encourage reproduction. However, the longer the leave, the harder it is for a mother to return to the workplace. If a wife loses her job, how does a family raise children? Companies will also have more pressure to pay for workers that cannot work for a long time. As a result, it becomes more difficult for women to find a job. It would be great if preferential tax rates could be given to decrease the costs of employers.

We need more support to meet the needs of young people and respond to their expectations.

More supporting policies that meet youngsters' demands and expectations are needed.