2021年我國人口增長48萬，如何了解這一資料？

今天和大家分享一個中英文小文章

據國家統計局近期公布的資料，2021年年末全國人口（包括31個省、自治區、直轄市和現役軍人的人口，不包括居住在31個省、自治區、直轄市的港澳台居民和外籍人員）141260萬人，比上年末增加48萬人。全年出生人口1062萬人，人口出生率為7.52‰；死亡人口1014萬人，人口死亡率為7.18‰；人口自然增長率為0.34‰。

The Chinese mainland's total population reached about 1.41 billion at the end of 2021, an increase of 480,000 over 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics released the data on Monday. The Chinese mainland saw a low number of newborns last year — 10.62 million, with a birthrate of 7.52 thousandths. Deaths numbered 10.14 million, or 7.18 thousandths. Natural population growth rate reached 0.34 thousandths.

中國日報專訪了南開大學經濟學院人口與發展研究所教授、博士生導師原新，談中國人口面臨的挑戰、未來趨勢和應對措施，以下是部分内容摘編：

❶ 您如何評價最新的人口資料？

原：去年新出生1062萬人，是新中國成立以來出生人口最少的一年。當死亡率穩定增長至每年1000萬以上，而出生人數逐漸下降，這意味着中國正進入人口零增長階段。在零值附近波動幾年後，将進入穩定的、常态化的負增長。換句話說，中國的人口規模已經達到了峰值14.2億左右。

The number of newborns last year — 10.62 million — is the lowest since the People's Republic of China was established. When deaths are stable at around 10 million per year and births continue to drop, it suggests that China is entering a zero population growth period. After staying at zero-growth for a few years, it will go into a stable, normalized negative growth. In other words, the Chinese population has reached its peak of about 1.42 billion.

❷ 您認為導緻出生人口下降的原因是什麼？

原：計劃生育政策和經濟社會快速發展共同促進生育率下降。

The family planning policy and the rapid social and economic development promoted the trend.

随着收入的增長，以及女性受教育和就業情況的改善，出生率自然走向下降。這和世界上所有國家的人口發展規律是一緻的。

With the increases in income, education and employment, especially among women, the birthrate naturally moved downward. It conforms to the law of development in every country in the world.

實際上，生育率下降的趨勢早在上個世紀七八十年代就已經出現，1992年以來生育率就一直保持在低水準。當人們受教育的時間更長，婚育年齡自然推遲。

The trend for a dropping fertility rate has manifested as early as 1970s to 1980s. Since 1992 the fertility rate has stayed at a low level. When there's a longer period of education in China, marriage is postponed along with childbirth.

随着經濟的發展，人們生存的成本和養孩子的成本也在提高，中國家庭感到了更大壓力。并且，中國家庭對孩子品質的需求高于對孩子數量的需求——他們傾向于集中有限的資源培養優秀的孩子。

With economic growth, the cost of living and cost of raising children are increasing. This brings more pressure on families. Moreover, families have weaker demand for a certain number of children and stronger demand for quality. They tend to centralize their limited resources to cultivate brilliant children.

❸ 中國面臨的最嚴峻的人口相關挑戰有哪些？

原：總結起來就是：生育意願疲軟，生育基數萎縮，生育行為消極。

The willingness to have children is weak. The fertility base is contracting. Reproductive behavior is negative.

中國的育齡婦女（15-49歲）人數大概在3.3億，到2050年預計會下降到2.0-2.4億。平均初婚年齡大概在26歲左右，平均初育年齡為28歲上下。生育二胎和三胎的年齡更長，這也提高了生育風險。

For example, the number of women of childbearing age from 15 to 49 is about 330 million and is expected to drop to 200 to 240 million by 2050. The average age for first marriage is 26, and first childbirth is about 28. Mothers of second or third children are much older, which increases risks in reproduction.

長壽和低生育率使得人口老齡化加重。随着老年人口數量的增加和勞動力數量的減少，人口結構将會改變，給社會發展帶來挑戰。

Longevity and a low fertility rate lead to an aging population. With the rise of elderly people and the decline of the labor force, the structure of the population will change. This will pose challenges in social development.

❹ 人口減少會給中國的社會經濟發展造成什麼影響？

原：對于這個問題我們不必過于悲觀。人口是很重要，但它不能決定一個國家的興衰。

We don't need to be overly pessimistic on this issue. Population is important, but it doesn't determine the rise or fall of a country.

影響會在二三十年以後顯現，因為現在出生的孩子二十年後才會成長為勞動力。在中短期，我們仍然會繼續享受前幾代人快速增長帶來的“人口紅利”。

The impact will only manifest two decades later or more, because babies born today will grow into a labor force after 20-30 years. In the short and medium time frame, we will continue to enjoy the "demographic dividend" brought by earlier generations.

即使轉為負增長，到2050年中國人口仍會保持在12-13億的高位，也是一個非常大的規模。五年後，印度可能會取代中國成為世界第一大人口大國，但是中國也會是第二位。在很長的一段時間内，人口對經濟社會的壓力不會改變，龐大的人口和有限的資源之間的沖突也不會改變。

Though it's turning toward negative growth, the Chinese population will still stand at around 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion by 2050, which is a very large size. Five years later, India may replace China as the country with the largest population in the world, but China will remain a close second place. For a long time, the pressure of population on the economy and society will not change. The tension between the large population and limited resources will remain strong.

另外，即使勞動力人口會減少，到本世紀中葉仍會保持在7.2億，比發達國家的數量要多很多。随着中國走向科技化、數字化和智能工業化，人們的就業壓力仍然很大。人工智能和機器人會占據很多工作崗位。市場對勞動力素質的需求會高于數量的需求。

Even though the number of people of working age will decline, it will still stand at about 720 million by the middle of this century, which is much larger than developed countries. Employment pressure will still be strong, as China goes into a more technological, digital and intelligent industrial era. Artificial intelligence and robots will replace a lot of jobs. And the demand for human labor will focus on quality instead of number.

但是我們也應該看到，長期的低生育率會威脅國家安全。是以，必須警惕低生育率水準的長遠人口風險。

But we should also see that long-term low fertility may threaten national security. We must be vigilant about the long-term risks of a low fertility rate.

❺ 可以采取哪些措施來應對現在的人口挑戰？

原：我們應該問問年輕人在什麼情況下他們才願意生孩子，他們想要什麼樣的公共服務。另外，50%-70%的孩子都是由祖父母或外祖父母照顧的，公立事先串通的人所會是一個很好的補充。

We need to ask young people in what condition they are willing to have a child, and what public services they want. As about 50 to 70 percent of children are cared for by their grandparents, public nurseries should be a good helper.

政策應該問需于民。許多省份通過延長産假來鼓勵生育，但是産假越長，一位母親回歸職場的可能性越小。如果妻子失去了工作，一個家庭如何供養孩子呢？員工長期不工作，用人機關也會承擔很大壓力。這将導緻女性求職困難。如果能在稅收等方面給予用人機關一些優惠來降低他們的成本就更好了。

Policies should take people's needs and worries into consideration. Many provinces have lengthened maternity leave to encourage reproduction. However, the longer the leave, the harder it is for a mother to return to the workplace. If a wife loses her job, how does a family raise children? Companies will also have more pressure to pay for workers that cannot work for a long time. As a result, it becomes more difficult for women to find a job. It would be great if preferential tax rates could be given to decrease the costs of employers.

我們需要更多支援措施來滿足年輕人的需求，回應他們的期待。

More supporting policies that meet youngsters' demands and expectations are needed.