Earn hi! A quarter's net profit offset the past 15 years, and Jiuan Medical has risen again

Today, the "demon stock" Jiuan Medical has made a comeback. As of press time, Jiuan Medical's quotation was 77.66 yuan / share, which was up and down again.

Looking back at the history of this big demon stock, from the lowest 5.8 yuan start on October 29 last year to the highest touch of 88.88 yuan on January 18 this year, the cumulative increase in two and a half months has exceeded 14 times, which can be called "demon king".

Under such a rally, many investors are also making a lot of money, and even some shareholders directly call out "big money, want to donate" on the interactive platform.

However, just in the first two trading days, Jiuan Medical suddenly "muted", the market seems to have re-entered the rational stage after the ebb tide, and today it is again up and down or related to the "big move" of Jiuan Medical.

One quarter's net profit offsets the past 15 years

On the evening of January 19, Jiuan Medical issued a performance forecast, and it is expected to achieve a net profit of 900-1.2 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 271.40% -395.19% year-on-year; deducting non-net profit of 850 million to 1.15 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 243%-365%.

It is worth mentioning that in the first three quarters of 2021, the company's revenue was only 790 million yuan; the net profit attributable to the mother was 50.128 million yuan. According to this calculation, the net profit for the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to reach 849 million yuan to 1.149 billion yuan.

According to the data, between 2006 and 2020, Jiuan Medical generally earned tens of millions of net profits in the year, and 242 million yuan in 2020 is already the highest since its listing.

This means that Jiuan Medical made much more money in the fourth quarter of last year than the sum of the past 15 years.

For the performance growth, Jiuan Medical said that due to the impact of the global new crown epidemic, the company's new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) antigen home self-test OTC kit product sales performance in the US market increased significantly, prompting a substantial increase in operating performance in 2021.

Jiuan Medical also prompted related risks, saying that in 2021, the company's operating performance mainly depended on the new crown test reagent, and there was significant uncertainty about whether the future performance could continue to maintain rapid growth.

As soon as the news came out, the share bar was fried! Some shareholders said that 20 times the demon stock is about to be born.

However, some shareholders said that more than ten times have risen, and now the performance forecast is not much use; some shareholders said that the epidemic is short-term, after the epidemic, a chicken feather.

How to start the "Demon King Journey"

It took only two months for Jiuan Medical to go from a bland "low-priced stock" to a soaring sky, which was dubbed the "king of demon stocks", and the starting point of the crazy growth began in November 2021.

On the evening of November 8, 2021, Jiuan Medical said on the mutual aid platform that its novel coronavirus antigen home self-test OTC kits have been certified by the FDA and can be sold in the US market.

However, because it said that it was "expected to bring relevant sales revenue to the company in the future", the market's attention to this news was low at that time, and the stock price of Jiuan Medical was relatively stable.

What really ignited the enthusiasm of the secondary market is that on November 15, 2021, the company said on the interactive platform that the current monthly production capacity of the new crown antigen home self-test OTC kit product is 100 million copies, and it is expected to increase to 200 million copies by the beginning of 2022.

At present, the overseas epidemic situation is still fermenting. According to the WHO, the number of new cases worldwide increased significantly from late December to early January and reached a record high. Since January 2022, the highest number of new confirmed cases on COVID-19 days in the world has exceeded 3.5 million, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 300 million.

Therefore, the above news "the current monthly production capacity is 100 million copies" and "the plan is estimated to increase the production capacity to 200 million copies per month by the beginning of 2022", giving the market a great space for imagination.

Stimulated by the above news, Jiuan Medical opened a surge mode. The continuous rise and fall of the board continues to refresh the company's stock price record, and it is also constantly stimulating the investment enthusiasm of shareholders.

Although the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued regulatory letters several times during the period, and the company also issued risk warnings many times, it still failed to stop the rise in stock prices. After the beginning of 2022, the company's stock price has not stopped rising, the five boards have continued to soar, and the shareholders with rich returns have even expressed their intention to donate to the company on interactive easy.

Performance contribution remains in doubt

In the previous reply letter, Jiuan Medical confirmed that its company iHealth kits have been successfully listed overseas, especially in the US market, and have achieved high-ranking sales results on the Amazon platform.

However, according to the response of Jiuan Medical Securities, although the new crown antigen home self-test OTC reagent is popular in the market, the contribution to its revenue is currently unclear.

In the risk warning on January 16, Jiuan Medical also specifically pointed out that the US government has the right to suspend the contract signed by the company's US subsidiary and the US HHS at any time due to its own factors, and market concerns have risen.

In addition, the technical threshold of the new crown home self-test OTC kit is not high, and at present, many domestic companies have obtained certification in overseas markets, such as Heatscape Bio obtained the BRITISH MHRA registration in September, and Oriental Bio obtained the EU CE certification in August.

In addition to Jiuan Medical and Icon Biotech, there are 7 companies that have obtained FDA approval, and there are still many companies developing new crown home self-test OTC kits waiting for FDA approval.

In the future, with the approval of these companies, the competition in the new crown self-test agent market will also intensify, so the profitability of the new crown self-test agent box of Jiuan Medical will continue to decline.

Performance or follow-up weakness

What needs to be pointed out more is that the epidemic will eventually pass, and what can Jiuan Medical rely on to support the stock price after the epidemic, which may be the real concern of the market.

As early as before the performance of Jiuan Medical has been tepid, the revenue from 2012 to 2019 has been maintained at around 500 million, but the net profit attributable to the mother is very thin, fluctuating around 10 million, and even losses in 2015 and 2017, with a cumulative loss of more than 300 million yuan in two years.

Since 2020, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic has won it a brief respite, and it has exported epidemic prevention products such as thermometer to foreign countries since mid-March 2020, and the company's annual operating income has increased by 184.36% year-on-year to 2.008 billion yuan.

However, since 2021, as the epidemic has weakened, the company's performance has also declined significantly, and the company's non-net profit in the first three quarters of this year has again suffered a loss of 24.78 million yuan.

This also means that Jiuan Medical can achieve remarkable results, mainly due to the sudden epidemic. In the future, as the new crown epidemic is contained, what the company relies on to support the stock price is what the market is worried about.

In addition, despite the hype in the secondary market, the draft stock option incentive plan of Jiuan Medical in 2021 did not raise expectations, but significantly reduced the exercise price to 6.49 yuan / share.

In general, the good performance of Jiuan Medical in the past two years mainly relies on factors such as sudden epidemics. Although Jiuan Medical's new crown self-test kit was approved in the US market, the bright future it depicts may be convincing.