Opportunities and challenges for pawns in 2022

Small bow length, male, weight 180 + pounds, 211 key university law class debut, through the examination, holding the national unified legal professional qualification certificate, sitting in the class Guangdong pawn for 12 years, accompanying the pawn from the Economic and Information Commission to the Department of Commerce and then to the Financial Bureau supervision, looking through the ups and downs of the industry, a few joys and a few sorrows, see people rise from tall buildings, see people buildings trampled ... Although the industry is cold and warm, the insult is not shocked, but still wait for the pawn industry such as the first love ~ ~

1. "Improving quality and increasing efficiency" has begun to show results.

During the period from 2018 to 2021, the number of pawn institutions in Guangdong decreased by more than 100, but the scale efficiency of lending increased. The regulatory trend is "to cancel a batch, rectify a batch, and retain a batch". Only by recognizing the general trend of the industry, doing something, not doing something, adjusting the original financial management mode and internal control mechanism, and adapting to supervision can enterprises become "leftovers". Only by managing risks well can we obtain the expected benefits, and only by respecting the market can we be invincible in development.

(PS: At the annual meeting, did you find that some people at the same table in previous years did not come?) Have fewer people caught fish in the same fish pond. Running a business is nothing more than surviving, living well, living longer... ）

2. Gradually recover from the impact of the "covid-19 epidemic".

In 2020, the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, social and economic activities suffered a heavy blow, the pawn industry is difficult to stand alone, the business volume and interest rate in that year dropped significantly, until 2021 steadily recovered. This shows that with the phased results of the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic in the mainland, the rapid recovery of social and economic activities, and the overall promotion of enterprises' resumption of work and production. Industrial chain coordination is an important condition for the restart of normal production and operation activities of enterprises, which will also bring new opportunities to the pawn industry.

(PS: I remember what that person said: Today is cruel, tomorrow is more cruel, and the day after tomorrow is beautiful.) Many people die tomorrow night without seeing the sun the day after tomorrow. ）

3. In the post-epidemic era, financial risks cannot be ignored, and financial protection is indispensable.

From the perspective of the development trend of the pawn industry, although the industry strives to return to its roots and promote the development of characteristics under the guidance of policies, there is a possibility of concentrated outbreak of risks under market pressure and the blow of the epidemic. This is one of the major risks facing the pawn industry and even the entire financial industry.

The customer base of the pawn is mostly "long tail people". Customer characteristics determine the probability of overdue, default, and absolute failure, and we must be vigilant against the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the real economy transmitted to the pawn field, and the risk of enterprise prevention "taking the last baton".

(PS: Don't you see that under the nest, there are complete eggs?) How big the head wears how big the hat is, at this time the fundraising and lending, the risk is very large! Huge! ）

Of course, the pawn industry should make overall plans for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increase financing support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, scientific and technological innovation, and green development, correctly understand and grasp the prevention and resolution of business risks, adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress in stability, completely, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, turn crises into opportunities, and promote characteristic development. Advance in the logic of historical progress, develop in the tide of the development of the times, strengthen confidence, courage to move forward, and create a better world in the post-epidemic era; we must add wings to the tiger, let the sunshine of hope illuminate mankind!

(PS: When you gaze into the abyss, the abyss also stares at you.) I very much appreciate Shaoguan Renjie's pawn Tang Zong's sentence "We must be kind to people." This is also the origin and original intention of the pawn industry. What did the pawn industry originate from? Ladies and gentlemen, ask Du Niang. ）

4. Be vigilant against the real estate pawn risk caused by the "poor liquidity, falling house prices, and downward property market" of some areas or shop properties.

According to the analysis of my good friend Professor Hu, in 2021, the property market of the first-hand and second-hand houses in the national property market was fully transferred in the second half of the year According to the analysis of my good friend Professor Hu, in 2021, the property market of the first-hand and second-hand houses in the national property market was fully turned in the second half of the year, and the overall transaction volume fell sharply and the price fell significantly. In July and August after June, the entire real estate sales volume and visit volume data are rapidly "plummeting", and even leading housing companies have dropped by 20% or more, which is the situation of first-hand housing. As for the data of second-hand houses, it is more bleak than that of second-hand houses; in 2021, the number of transactions in the second-hand market in Guangzhou was 117103 cases (self-service online signatures, intermediaries promoted online signatures), a significant decrease of 10.6% compared with the same period last year (131009 cases). However, it should be pointed out in particular that since April 2021, guangzhou's second-hand property market has entered an intensive period of regulation, and the market trading atmosphere has cooled down significantly. In the second half of the year, the performance of second-hand transactions was sluggish, with only 41,891 transactions, down 49.6% from last year, the lowest level in recent years. As a first-tier city, Guangzhou's first- and second-hand housing market is so "decadent" and "sluggish", which should be a symbolic "microcosm" of the overall market and prospects of first-hand and second-hand housing in the national property market. From the data of the national second-hand housing transaction since 2021, the situation of "price contraction" and "policy freezing" is more obvious.

The market for first-hand houses in the national property market can be described as more tragic, and the real estate industry is recognized: 2021 is the year of "thunder" for housing enterprises, and it is not excluded that 2022 and 2023 are also. Wind data shows that as of August 2021, more than 38 house-related bonds have defaulted, more than in the whole of 2020 (18). As of August 23, about 260 housing enterprises had submitted bankruptcy documents, and an average of about 1 housing enterprise went bankrupt every day. Housing enterprises thunderstorm default housing enterprises have been from unknown small and medium-sized housing enterprises, top 100 housing enterprises, into hundreds of billions of housing enterprises, head housing enterprises (such as Evergrande, Huaxia Happiness, Blue Light, etc.) and so on. And what caused large, medium and small housing developers to default in the third quarter? Obviously, the "first-hand housing market" has fallen sharply.

Real estate is one of the most important properties of urban small and medium-sized enterprises or individuals, which is used as a subject matter in financial mortgage pledges, and has the characteristics of high-quality assets with high value, large returns, strong demand, and large market capacity. Because of the degree of economic development of the mainland industry in recent years, customers use enterprises or individual real estate to obtain a large amount of financing in pawn shops to solve temporary capital needs; and because the mainland property market has continued to be bullish for more than ten years, making the real estate on the market more convenient, safer and more fair to value and trade, so the real estate pawn mortgage business has become the largest business type of large and medium-sized pawn enterprises.

Pawn enterprises should not only pay close attention to the pawn industry at all times, but also pay attention to the policy trends and administrative dynamics of the regulatory departments of the real estate industry; combined with the local reality, in accordance with the self-discipline requirements of financial supervision such as business compliance, operation standardization, and text standardization, timely revise the management system, process operation, and legal documents of the real estate pawn business.

(PS: After the same commodity is hooked up with finance, the price may deviate from the actual labor value and "drift", commonly known as "the pig standing on the wind". Perhaps the general trend of house prices due to inflation is still on the rise. But if capital recedes, will it have ups and downs like stocks? If you encounter Voldemort, can you survive the winter? Or such as "stock speculation is like a widow", you can stand it? ）

5. There is a law to follow, and there is a law to follow.

Recently, the central bank has publicly solicited opinions on the "Regulations on Local Financial Supervision and Administration", and the regulatory authorities have also publicly solicited opinions on the "Regulations on Local Financial Supervision and Administration of Guangdong Province", and the industry is expected to usher in the dawn of a law to follow. Before the new regulations were formally promulgated, the current Pawn Management Measures were still valid and were the criterion for the courts to resolve disputes, the basis for the government to administer according to law, and the standard for enterprise operation.

(PS: Actually, since I entered the industry that spring, I have been soliciting opinions on pawn regulations and new methods. Of course, there is still hope. Dialectical materialism holds that everything is divided into two. Regulations are also a double-edged sword for enterprises. Strict supervision by regulatory authorities, strict law enforcement, and investigation of violations of the law will also make enterprises enter a new period of pain and adaptation. )

Finally, insert a piece of news: On January 14, 2022, the Supreme People's Court issued the Guiding Opinions on Giving Full Play to the Role of Judicial Functions to Help the Development of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, of which point 11 is once again clear: "The order of the private lending market is regulated according to laws and regulations." Illegal lending behaviors such as "usurious refinancing" and "professional lending" shall be found to be invalid in accordance with law. ”

(To be continued...)