A shares have risen for three consecutive years, and this year the market fell out of the stock market. This article talks about the 2022 market forecast, talk about whether the market can break through 4000 points this year? What plates should we lay out?
Most of huige's earnings were earned in 19 and 20 years, and in these two years, they caught up with a wave of small bull markets, earning nearly 2 million, and the principal exceeded the 4 million mark.
In the early days, Hui Ge only did short-term stocks, and later turned to value investors as the principal increased. Last year's market is the most difficult year for Hui Ge to enter the industry, some people have doubled, but Hui Ge only earned money fixed by the bank, and even some people lost more than 20%, in previous years, they all fell unilaterally or rose, each investor gap is not large, but this year it is seriously differentiated, and the faith of value investors collapses.
Look back at history
It closed at 3050 in 2019, 3474 in 2020 and 3639 in 2021. The Shanghai Securities, SZSE and ChiNext rose by 4.8%, 2.6% and 12% respectively last year, all of which have risen for three consecutive years. Even the news reported that shareholders would earn 60,000 yuan per capita in 2021.
2021 is a roller coaster market, today KTV, tomorrow to go to the ICU. The overall style rotates quickly, from consumer medicine to technological growth, to the "coal super crazy" cycle stocks, the last two months of consumption returned, medical care continued to fall, and Chinese stocks were hammered for half a year.
In 2021, most of the basic people are value investment funds that enter the baijiu high, so the returns this year are generally poor. However, in three years, the food and beverage sector has doubled by 1.5 times, and non-ferrous metals rose by 40% last year, so A shares are actually not lacking in opportunities, and stepping on the plate is a bull market every year.
Looking back at the history, we found that A shares have risen in the past three years, and we recognize that there are still many doubling funds in 2021, which are very poor, and have risen so much, will they continue to rise this year?
The current macro and micro environment
From the perspective of system, 2022 is the first year of the full registration system, and the original approval system was that the CSRC helped us screen companies, and only profitable large companies could be listed. The current registration system is to allow investors to judge the value of the company, which is one of the important signs of mature markets. In the past two years, the fund has gone out of the circle, the retail investor transformation has become institutionalized, the maturity of the market and the improvement of the system may also make A-shares out of the slow bull decade like the US stock market.
From the perspective of monetary policy, in 2021, the central government clarified the general direction of stability, and the meeting pointed out that "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity." So the currency in 2022 will not tighten, it is still an easy environment.
From the perspective of life, we can all feel that it is difficult to make money in these two years. Because of the epidemic, Brother Hui personally cancelled the company I had established for four years, from an entrepreneur to a worker, which is the change of the epidemic to give me a job.
As the source of global economic turmoil in the past two years, with the popularization of vaccines and the development of specific drugs, the margin of influence is gradually weakening, and Professor Zhang Wenhong is also saying that this will be the last cold winter of the epidemic.
From the perspective of the investment environment, the enthusiasm of new investors has not diminished, running into the fund market, and the number of daily fund downloads has increased year by year.
But the overall valuation of the stock market is not low, the blue line represents the CSI 300, the beginning of 2021 is the peak of valuation, currently around the 70 percentile. The red line is the CSI 500, which represents the small and mid-cap stocks, although it has risen for half a year, but the valuation is still at the bottom.
From the perspective of fund returns, in 2021, due to the rapid rotation of the sector, the income of high turnover rate funds is 4 times that of low turnover rate funds, and white horse stocks and value investment have become jokes
Plate selection
Hui Ge this week read more than 30 research reports, combined with historical data and macro and microeconomics to do cross-verification, I think this year's intraday probability to break through 3930 points, the overall form may be "first suppressed and then raised", through the early decline to digest last year's rise in too much plate valuation, in the second half of this year ushered in the rising market, but the probability of rising for four consecutive years is not high, the end of the year may usher in diving.
However, the overall money-making effect of the stock market is not strong, and this year's plate will still rotate and differentiate, and there will be no more group markets like the previous two years. Our overall layout should still pay attention to the high turnover rate fund with a scale of less than 10 billion, and stop buying star managers such as Kun Kun and Chun Chun.
First: consumption of domestic demand and infrastructure
Last year, the consumer industry was affected by the weak demand and the cost end of the price increase, and the consumption sector adjusted sharply throughout the year. Under the background of common prosperity, people's livelihood security policies such as housing, education and medical collection have been introduced, and the large expenditure of residents has been reduced, which can release some daily consumption demand. This year's GDP growth rate is expected to be 5%-5.5%, the epidemic is expected to improve, and expanding domestic demand is still an important goal.
The Central Economic Conference in December 2021 mentioned that to actively expand effective investment, it is necessary to moderately advance infrastructure construction, and CITIC predicts that infrastructure construction will also grow by 6.5% throughout the year. Therefore, we can actively allocate consumption and then appropriately supplement the infrastructure sector.
Second: the brokerage sector
The full registration system landed, there will be more companies listed in the future, the secondary market investment is hot, the profits of securities companies will usher in a substantial increase, and many securities companies have been cut relative to the highest price in 2015, and 2021 has also experienced continuous declines, and the valuation has been very cheap.
Third: new energy
In the next 20 years, there is no doubt about the policy of carbon neutrality, the world is releasing water, the water of the old United States can flow to Apple, Microsoft, Tesla and virtual currency, where can our water flow? Liquor and soy sauce stocks carry limited capacity, daily necessities rise in prices affect people's livelihood, housing is not speculation is a long-term goal, only the future of science and technology is the sea of stars, in order to carry a huge amount of funds.
However, the current green power has appeared overcapacity, if the new energy does not fall I will not mention this track, but now the new energy has fallen by more than 20%, waiting for the downward trend to stabilize, is our opportunity to re-layout, but to reduce revenue expectations, this year's new energy will not have last year's market.
Fourth: agriculture
The 2022 "three rural" meeting stressed that "the rice bowl of the Chinese should be firmly in their own hands at all times, and the rice bowl is mainly filled with Chinese grain", the pig breeding sector has a high degree of certainty in 2022, after a long period of loss, there has been a significant phenomenon of de-capacity, and the pig cycle reversal can be expected.
Fifth: medical health
After more than two consecutive years of big markets in the medical industry, the valuation of the entire sector has reached a historical high, but after a round of killing last year, the valuation has been in the opportunity range.
The underlying thinking of medical treatment is the aging of the population and the rejuvenation and normalization of diseases, staying up the latest night, applying the most expensive eye cream, climbing the mountain may be no more than the 60-year-old mother, which is the physical condition of the post-90s.
Next year, the number of innovative drugs declared for listing is expected to reach a new high, and the collection and collection removes the profits of generic drugs and middlemen, but brings about the healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry in the next 20 years.
Buy timing
Hui Ge believes that consumption and medical treatment are currently a good time to set investment, but consumption has risen through a round, and it is recommended that the amount of medical investment should be greater than consumption.
The current valuation of new energy is still high, if there is no position, you can open a small rated investment here, and the valuation of the position enters a reasonable period and then buys a large amount, and the valuation table can be in the public number: Hui Ge said investment, inside to see
Every time the securities companies fall is the time to buy, the overall volatility of the plate is relatively large, suitable for the exchange securities ETF to do T, that is, buy low and sell high to do the swing
Agriculture and infrastructure are favorable policies, agriculture has had a spring restless market in the past ten years and seven years, and a new round of infrastructure development is about to start, focusing on the new infrastructure sector.
Hui Ge will focus on the layout of consumer medical brokers and the technology sector after the decline this year, and the overall position will be controlled below 70%. If you contact the fund within one year, it is recommended that most of the funds are allocated to the hybrid fund, without the need to choose the time, but also to lay out multiple sectors at once.