Sailing Against the Current If you don't advance, you will retreat

U.S. stocks fell across the board last night

The judgment on the U.S. stock market years later is;

Huge earthquake before the rate hike, rebound after the rate hike, and stock market crash after the rebound.

The logic is that before the interest rate hike will frequently release interest rate hike information, causing psychological impact on the market, forming a huge earthquake, after the interest rate hike to form a strong and effective market, so there will be a rebound, but after the rebound is the liquidity tightened, with the bottom of the barrel, the capital base supporting the market gradually decreased, more than ten years of air pavilions will reach a critical point sooner or later, plus the Quantitative Trade Fair in the United States will converge to place orders, so there will be a stock disaster.

A-share opportunities are greater than risks, and every time they are dragged down by U.S. stocks, when the bull plate falls out, the fund takes this as a group, which is also a gold rush effect.

The domestic real estate bubble is larger than that of stocks, which have been at a low level after a long period of adjustment. The central mother has released so much liquidity, this money must find a reservoir, the real economy in the post-epidemic era for a while and a half will not be able to fully inject funds, can only enter the capital market

Coupled with the Beijing Stock Exchange and the full registration system, the rapid growth of ETFs, the domestic capital market led by funds has arrived, replacing the property market for thirty years as the main target of investment.

The US stock market, the Chinese property market, to see who blinks first, fall together, for the international hot money will not be out of balance, which collapse first, hot money will flow in the opposite direction. Therefore, they are gritting their teeth and holding on, it is best to die together, so that the hot money will not be so extreme.

There is also a psychological game, that is, when one really collapses, the other does not have to be braced. You can relax and lie flat together.

After the Fed raises interest rates, it not only impacts the US stock market, but after the interest rate hike, the dollar appreciates, which has a huge impact on the domestic real estate that owes huge foreign debt, and the US stock market is comparable, so these two goods are expected to end up worse than rotten.

The latest central bank policy: open the monetary policy toolbox a little bigger and keep the total amount stable.

To interpret it, it is to take advantage of the Fed's interest rate hike, grasp the release of water and fatten the economy, play an advance amount, stabilize and stabilize, and then stabilize to cope with the tightening storm behind.

It can also be understood as clinging to the autumn before the cold winter.

This gap period did not eat fat, and the back was 100% frozen to death, so this year is sailing against the current, and if you don't advance, you will retreat. Whether it is the real economy or the capital market, it must be desperate.