On Wednesday (January 19), Shanghai crude oil prices rose 1.55%, once hitting a three-year high, the main contract 2203 finally closed at 544.6 yuan / barrel, up 8.3 yuan / barrel, because of the geopolitical issues in Russia and the United Arab Emirates are worrying, and a pipeline from Iraq to Turkey is interrupted, and people are more worried about the already tight supply prospects.
Turkey's state-owned pipeline operator said an explosion in a pipeline system from Kirkuk to Ceyhan interrupted oil shipments and the fires sparked by the explosion had been extinguished, saying it would resume operations "as soon as possible."
Meanwhile, analysts forecast tight oil supplies in 2022, in part because demand will remain much better than expected amid the highly contagious Omicron variant outbreak raging, with some saying oil prices will rebound to $100.
Trading Roundup & Trading Strategies
Trading logic: Oil prices have recently hit a 7-year high, supported by fundamental bullish factors. Drone strikes on UAE oil facilities on Monday sparked supply concerns, and the disruption of another pipeline from Iraq to Turkey reignited fears. At the same time, the atmosphere is tense between Russia and Ukraine, the world's second-largest oil producer. Technically, we need to be wary of the risk of overbought, but overall oil prices are still bullish in the short term, and investors are advised to continue to take advantage of the bargain to do more.
Resistance: INE crude oil 553.0, US oil 87.00
Support: INE crude oil 535.0, US oil 84.19
China and overseas news
Tight spot crude oil markets indicate higher oil prices
(1) Svetana Paraskova, an analyst at energy website Oilprice, said that tight spot supply in the crude oil market could push up oil prices;
(2) It turns out that demand for the impact on Omikeron is more resilient than many analysts initially thought;
(3) With the rebound in spot and futures markets, and the rise in geopolitical premiums, market watchers expect oil prices to rise to the $100 mark.
WHO: There is no need to develop a new vaccine for Omi kerong
At a press conference on 18 January, Ryan, who heads WHO's emergency programmes, said of the effectiveness of existing COVID-19 vaccines on the Omiljung strain: "Most of the vaccines in use today prevent patients from being hospitalized or dying after severe illness. He affirmed the effectiveness of existing vaccines. Ryan also said that there is no need to develop a new vaccine against the Aumecreon strain at this stage.
The average daily increase in new crown cases in the United States on the 7th was nearly 800,000 cases of long-term care institutions
The latest epidemic data on the website of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that as of the 14th, the average daily increase in the number of confirmed cases of new crown in the United States as of the 14th was nearly 800,000, and the average daily increase in deaths on the 7th was about 1800. The recent surge in confirmed cases among the elderly in long-term care facilities has resurged. Recently, with the accelerated spread of the Aumechjong strain in the United States, the epidemic in the United States has rebounded seriously, and many epidemic indicators have repeatedly reached new highs. On the 10th, nearly 1.5 million new confirmed cases of new coronavirus were added in the United States in a single day, setting a record since the outbreak of the epidemic. The average number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States on the seventh day has been rising recently and is currently the highest since the outbreak of the epidemic; the average number of daily deaths has also reached its highest since the end of September last year. (Xinhuanet)
For the first time, the number of new COVID-19 infections in Germany exceeded 100,000 for the first time
(1) Germany joined the ranks of countries such as the United Kingdom, France and Italy, with more than 100,000 new infections in a single day, further proving that this highly contagious Omilon is spreading rapidly in Germany.
(2) According to data released by the German Institute of Public Health RKI on Wednesday, the number of new infections in a single day reached 112,323, compared with 74,405 new cases the day before.
(3) Germany has tightened restrictions on restaurants and cafes and promised to speed up vaccinations in response to the rapidly spreading Omiljung variant. But authorities have hinted that more may need to be done, and the German parliament is ready to discuss mandatory vaccination. German Chancellor Schoelz's government has yet to take a full-scale lockdown, such as shutting down businesses and schools again.
For the first time in 30 years, Japan will develop a domestic offshore natural gas field
Nikkei Chinese.com on January 19 reported that the Japan International Petroleum Development Corporation (INPEX) and the Japan Petroleum, Natural Gas, Metals and Mineral Resources Agency (JOGMEC) announced on January 17 that they would begin exploring marine natural gas fields in the waters of Shimane and Yamaguchi prefectures from March. This is the first time in about 30 years that Japan has explored and developed a new offshore natural gas field in China. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry wants to increase the self-sufficiency rate of natural gas and achieve stable procurement, but environmental groups and others may also criticize it as "violating the decarbonization trend".
Institutional perspective
Huatai Futures: The geopolitical situation in Ukraine is heating up
Recently, the geopolitical situation in Ukraine has heated up significantly, last week's negotiations between the United States and Russia did not reach any consensus, the two sides can not resolve their differences on the matter of Ukraine's accession to NATO, and then Russia and Belarus conducted joint military exercises, the possibility of a military conflict in Ukraine further increased, and if a war breaks out in Ukraine, the United States will most likely impose sanctions on Russia, although it will not directly impose an embargo on Russia's oil and gas exports, but the United States will prohibit Russia from accessing the international bank settlement system. This will make energy trade with Russia more difficult, on Friday Biden held a closed-door meeting with major oil companies to discuss whether there is an alternative to Russia's natural gas supply options, but Russia's oil and gas exports are huge, once the supply is affected, Europe's energy supply will be greatly affected, and energy costs will further soar, exacerbating inflation, Europe and the United States are also in a hurry to determine whether to break out direct conflict with Russia.
Guosen Futures: Tensions in the Middle East, oil prices rose strongly
The United Arab Emirates, an oil producer in the Middle East, was attacked, fearing an oil supply disruption and international oil prices soaring. On the morning of the 17th local time, the UAE capital Abu Dhabi continued to explode fuel tanker trucks and fire at the airport, causing 3 deaths and 6 injuries, and the Houthi armed forces subsequently declared responsibility for the incident. The UAE is an important oil producer for OPEC, which currently produces around 2.8 million barrels of crude oil per day. The UAE is also one of only a handful of OPEC member states with idle production capacity. Technically, WTI crude oil rose strongly and hit new highs. Operation suggestion: Oscillation is more than one idea operation.
Everbright Futures: Frequent geopolitical events have triggered bullish sentiment in the oil market
Last night and this morning, satellite news reported a strong explosion and fire at an oil pipeline in southeastern Turkey. It is understood that the kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has a pipeline volume of 600,000 barrels per day, which is boosted by geopathic sentiment, and oil prices have once again hit a new high. With the Opichron variant far less impacting demand than the Delta strain, there is still an unexpectedly large supply gap in the market, and oil inventories in OECD countries will fall to their lowest levels since 2000. Preliminary findings suggest that U.S. crude inventories are expected to decline for the eighth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to increase. Frequent geopolitical events have triggered bullish sentiment in the oil market, and it is necessary to pay attention to the continuity of emotions and the risks after the divergence of oil prices and US stock trends.
Institutional analysis: Oil prices rose to a seven-year high, and the disruption of Turkey's oil pipelines exacerbated the prospect of tight supply
Oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive day, hitting a seven-year high. Earlier, Turkey's state-owned pipeline operator Botas said on Tuesday that the pipeline that transported crude oil from Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, to Turkey's ceyhan port for export, exploded and interrupted oil shipments. The cause of the explosion is currently unknown. In addition, geopolitical issues in Russia and the UAE are increasing supply concerns. OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a study: "OPEC+ has not reached the production quota, and if geopolitical tensions continue to heat up, Brent crude may not need much of a driving factor to reach $100/b."
This article originated from Huitong Network
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