Recently, the Chinese Bank released data showing that preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing in 2021 is 31.35 trillion yuan, 3.44 trillion yuan less than the previous year, and 5.68 trillion yuan more than in 2019. It is directly said that the incremental performance of social financing is not good, even lower than the same period in 2020.
Everbright Bank believes that the increase in social financing is lower than last year, mainly because of the small increase in off-balance sheet financing and direct financing, but compared with normal years, social financing of 31.35 trillion yuan is at a historical second high, indicating that the domestic financing environment remains moderately relaxed.
Comprehensive overall trend in 2021, the increase in social financing is not optimistic, a number of securities companies released research reports said that because of the lack of real estate growth, the current real estate industry is expected to usher in the "policy bottom", it seems that social financing is expected to usher in a pick-up.
The scale of social financing has grown but the growth rate has slowed down
On January 18, at the press conference on financial statistics for 2021, Ruan Jianhong, director of the Department of Survey and Statistics of Chinese Min Bank, revealed some information in response to reporters' questions.
For the reduction of the increase in social financing, Ruan Jianhong said that although the increase in social financing in 2021 is 3.44 trillion yuan less than that in 20 years, at the end of 2021, the growth rate of social financing scale is 10.3%, and the growth rate of social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate.
Structurally, loans issued by financial institutions to the real economy remain stable. In 2021, local and foreign currency loans issued to the real economy increased by 20.11 trillion yuan, basically the same as in 2020.
From the perspective of subjects, debt financing in 2021 has decreased compared with 2020, government bond financing in 2021 is 7.02 trillion yuan, 1.31 trillion yuan less than the previous year, and non-financial enterprise bond financing is 3.29 trillion yuan, 1.09 trillion yuan less than the previous year. Together, the two have fallen by nearly 2.4 trillion yuan.
Ruan Jianhong said that the decline in government bond financing is due to the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds in 2020 and the return to normal issuance in 2021. The decline in financing for non-financial enterprises is due to the increase in equity financing in 2021, and pointed out that in 2021, the domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises will be 1.24 trillion yuan, which is 343.4 billion yuan more than that of the previous year.
Ruan Jianhong also said that due to the substantial reduction in off-balance sheet financing in 2021, in 2021, the three off-balance sheet financings of entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills of exchange decreased by 2.67 trillion yuan, 1.35 trillion yuan more than the previous year.
For 2022, Ruan Jianhong said that the People's Bank of China will conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, the prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and maintain the growth rate of social financing scale and the nominal economic growth rate.
Real estate is expected to bottom out
In addition to the news revealed by Ruan Jianhong, social financing in 2021 also shows some other phenomena. The first is the recovery of M2, after April 2021, the growth rate of M2 has always been lower than 9%, but in December 2021, it returned to 9, and the growth rate of the stock of social financing scale also came to 10.3%, and several brokerage institutions evaluated the recovery of social financing as "opening red". Caixin Securities said that due to the effect of fiscal back-posting, corporate bonds and government bonds have formed a certain support for social finance, and the overall social finance data has shown a slow repair state.
Huatai Securities believes that in December 2021, the financing of government bonds and corporate bonds related to infrastructure increased year-on-year, which promoted the year-on-year growth of social financing. However, on the other hand, real estate-related financing (including development loans, non-standard financing, and even housing loans) continues to be weak, indicating that the strength and coordination of real estate-related counter-cyclical policies need to be strengthened. At the same time, the continued weakening of domestic demand continues to drag down the willingness of enterprises to self-lend. Specifically, the new RMB loans and new social financing in December 2021 did not meet market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of M2 slightly exceeded market expectations.
China Merchants Securities said that the current willingness of residents to buy a house is still weakening, matching the negative growth of new home sales in January.
From the data point of view, there are also some clues, from 2019 to 2021, the "medium and long-term loans in the household sector" dominated by housing loans were 5.45 trillion yuan, 5.95 trillion yuan and 6.08 trillion yuan, respectively, and the medium- and long-term loans in the household sector in 2020, where the epidemic is more serious, also showed an increase of 0.5 trillion yuan, but the relatively light 2021 only achieved a growth of 0.13 trillion yuan, and the growth declined significantly.
China Merchants Securities also expects that real estate sales may bottom in April, and the downward pressure on house prices will continue to increase, so as to judge the policy more friendly. In the third quarter of 2021, the capital chain pressure of the real estate industry has been the worst in history, worse than 08, 11-12, 14-15, and 18 years, and it is expected that the fourth quarter will be worse, while the variance angle is magnified than history, and the anti-risk pressure of the financial mouth is greater. The upward pressure on house prices shown by the 21-year annual data has become downward pressure, and at present, 80% of the top 70 cities in the key cities have fallen month-on-month, and there is still a little distance from the 70 cities at the bottom of history, and it is estimated that they will fall in about a quarter.
China Merchants Securities predicts that after the New Year' Eve, mortgages and development loans should be released in the first quarter of 2022, but because it is difficult for private enterprises to repair credit, it is expected that there will be improvements on the demand side to make up for this problem, and it is expected that some fundamental differences, local cities with many insurance housing enterprise projects may have support, and the improved demand housing policy or optimization will be used to reverse the expectations of residents and debt investors.
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