Housing companies have finally waited for the key signal

On September 29, the People's Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly held a real estate finance work conference, which was attended by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Securities Regulatory Commission and 24 major banks across the country, proposing that financial institutions should cooperate with relevant departments and local governments to jointly maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.

On October 10, Harbin suddenly introduced a rescue policy, including 16 measures to stabilize the real estate market, including alleviating the liquidity pressure of housing enterprises, housing subsidies, tax cuts, etc., becoming the first city to introduce a local rescue policy this year.

On October 15, the China Housing Association convened the heads of 10 housing enterprises, including Poly, China Shipping, Vanke, Sunac, Gemdale, Longhu, Zhongliang, Xincheng, Greentown and Xuhui, to discuss in Beijing to listen to the difficulties encountered by housing enterprises and their demands on the current regulatory policies, and officials of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also attended the meeting.

After the China Housing Association convened the housing enterprises, the National Development and Reform Commission also convened some housing enterprises to meet tomorrow, the content of the meeting may be related to the settlement of the debt default of the US dollar debt of the Chinese-funded real estate, the stability of the US dollar debt is a major event, and for the housing enterprises, the official concern has become a good thing.

At the same time, a number of decision-making officials have also recently released remarks about stabilizing the real estate market.

On October 15, at the central bank's third quarter financial statistics press conference, Zou Lan, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said that some financial institutions also have some misunderstandings about the "three lines and four files" financing management rules for 30 pilot housing enterprises, and in view of these situations, guide major banks to accurately grasp and implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, maintain the stable and orderly delivery of real estate credit, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

On October 20, Vice Premier Liu He said in a written speech at the 2021 Financial Street Forum that there are individual problems in the real estate market at present, but the risk is generally controllable, reasonable capital needs are being met, and the overall situation of healthy development of the real estate market will not change.

On the same day, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said in response to the Evergrande incident at the 2021 G30 International Banking Seminar that Evergrande's risk is a case risk, one is to avoid Evergrande's risk from spreading to other real estate enterprises, and the other is to avoid risk transmission to the financial sector.

Analyzing the speeches of decision-making officials, it is not difficult to see that the decision-making level has fully predicted the risks of the current real estate industry, and has the confidence to control them within the controllable range (housing enterprises that have exploded), rather than allowing the risks to continue to be contagious (other housing enterprises and financial institutions).

In other words, it's already the bottom of the real estate industry's worst.

In fact, for the housing enterprises that have already exploded, under the principle of territoriality, they have also begun to solve the problem in a targeted manner, for example, a central provincial capital city has set up a working group led by the mayor to solve the problem of detonation of two housing enterprises.

On the market news, the news that bank credit lines have been relaxed, housing mortgages and development loans have begun to recover has begun to spread in the real estate circle, and real estate stocks have also been affected by this news and have risen sharply.

In fact, the re-liberalization of bank credit lines may be the key signal that housing companies are finally waiting.

Indeed, the biggest difficulty encountered by housing enterprises at present is the cash flow problem, and it is more direct that banks do not lend.

On the last day of last year, the central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a real estate loan concentration management system - setting "two red lines" for the scale and proportion of real estate loans issued by major banks, that is, the proportion of their real estate loan balances and the balance of personal housing loans should not be higher than the corresponding upper limits determined by the People's Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.

Affected by the real estate loan concentration management system, especially since the second half of this year, many housing companies have difficulty obtaining real estate loans from banks.

In addition, the previous various financing channels have also been blocked, many private enterprises cash flow can only rely on sales returns to support, and the second half of the real estate market also due to the tightening of lending quota and other factors quickly cooled, further aggravating the difficulties of housing enterprises.

It can be said that a direct reason for the current housing enterprises to be in trouble is that banks do not lend money, and the high turnover game of high leverage cannot be played at all.

Today, the bank credit line has been opened again, which can be described as a long drought for housing enterprises, and finally waited for the funds to continue their lives.

However, despite this, this opening is not open to supply, but very targeted, according to the Financial Associated Press and other media reports:

The bank's quota is limited, and the specific amount is closely related to the size of its previous compression;

The object of issuance is also only for real estate enterprises that do not step on the red line, and the risk control and leverage control are good, and the bank needs to approve and pay the account normally;

The use of funds can only be used for development loans, which can be described as very strict.

In the view of the bombing group, the bank credit line has been opened again, which is too timely for many private enterprises struggling on the verge of detonation.

Speaking of a case, a housing enterprise that just entered the TOP10 last year has recently accepted 15% interest in order to raise funds, which was completely unimaginable before.

However, compared with the optimism of many real estate people, the bombing group still pours a little cold water, and some housing enterprises that should explode will still explode, and only these real estate companies that should explode are exploded, and the risk of the real estate industry is really lifted.

Don't pay attention yet, get on the bus!