The conclusion is written in the front: If the Xuanwumen Incident had not occurred, Li Shimin would not have lived to die li Yuan.
Before the xuanwumen change occurred, Li Shimin and Li Jiancheng had been fighting for a long time, and Li Jiancheng wanted to get rid of it for a long time.
At that time, it was a Turkic invasion, and Li Jiancheng thought that this was a good opportunity, so he recommended Li Yuanji, the King of Qi, to li yuanji as a marshal, with the purpose of weakening Li Shimin's military power, taking the military power in his own hands, and then taking the opportunity to get rid of the King of Qin.
Li Shimin knew about Li Jiancheng's plot, so he took the preemptive measure, he knew that there was only one way to retreat, and he did not want to sit still, so there was a change in Xuanwumen.
Even if Li Shimin lived until Li Yuan's death, he would not be able to defeat Li Jiancheng. First of all, Li Yuan's attitude is very important, and the person he supports is the prince.
Li Yuan did not want to change to crown prince, and in order to help Li Jiancheng smoothly ascend to the throne, he had already consciously deprived Li Shimin of his military power little by little. If Li Shimin did not launch the Xuanwumen Rebellion, by the time Li Yuan died, Li Shimin's power would definitely be much worse than before, and Li Jiancheng would have had enough strength in his hands at that time.
Secondly, after Li Yuan's death, Li Shimin's re-leadership of the army to seize the throne was a rebellion.
After Li Yuan's death, Li Jiancheng was the new emperor with a just name, and when his father died, he rebelled, and Li Shimin was morally untenable. Although there were many generals under him, at the time of his launch of the Xuanwumen Revolution, many people were reluctant to participate in the conspiracy to help him seize the position of prince, not to mention that it was now a real rebellion. The risk at this time is not the same as the Xuanwumen incident, and how many people are willing to help him.
Third, Li Jiancheng is also a smart person, and it is impossible to be defenseless about this.
Li Jiancheng is the eldest son and also intelligent, he was raised by Li Yuan as a prince since childhood, he has many years of experience in fighting With Li Shimin, and Li Shimin is always a threat to him when he is alive. He could not give Li Shimin another chance to rebel, and after Li Yuan's death, Li Jiancheng would definitely get rid of Li Shimin first.
At this time, Li Shimin's power was not as great as before, his power was almost weakened, and he had no ability to confront Li Jiancheng again, so there could only be one result, that is, Li Jiancheng's complete victory.
Therefore, Li Shimin must also be able to imagine this result, he will not sit still, and the Xuanwumen incident will inevitably happen.